Posted on 10/21/2020 9:32:14 AM PDT by dangus
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen shocked Republicans by claiming that Biden led by 12 percent. Last week, he led by 8. Today, his lead is only 3. And only half of the poll came out after the shocking revelations that Hunter Biden shook down foreign governments for huge amounts of cash on behalf of his father.
IBD/TIPP has similarly shown Biden's lead narrow from 11 points to just 2.5 points, including down from 5.4 just one day earlier. IBD/TIPP is a tracking poll, also, so again, the full effect of the Biden e-mails is just starting to register.
The Economist still shows a healthy lead of 7%, but the internals suggest that if the partisan breakdown is the same as 2016, Trump will win again. Trump leads by 4 among independents, the same as 2016, and does better at retaining Republican voters than in 2016, while Biden does worse at Democratic voters than Clinton did, although in each case, the difference is only 1%. That's enough, since Trump won in 2016. And voter registration has shifted heavily to Republicans during this campaign season.
The bad news is Dornsife which predicted a popular-vote win for Trump consistently throughout 2016, but now predicts a double-digit (11.2%) lead for Biden.
How is that bad news ? They were wrong then. They are likely wrong now.
The Dornsife poll at least in 2016 operates in a rather odd manner: instead of polling a different set of voters in each iteration, it polls the same set of voters repeatedly to study how their voting intentions change. Because the pollsters sometimes miss some voters in their set, some of the variation results from slightly different subsets of voters taking the poll. In 2016, Dornsife happened to start with a set of voters that favored Trump (or at least consolidated fairly early behind Trump) to a greater extent than most media outlets prefer. After the election, the pollster corrected the poll weightings to shift the result four points toward Hillary.
This year, of course, Donsife uses a different set of voters. Each of 6000 persons answers the poll every fourteenth day. The identity of the respondents does not vary from poll to poll, resulting in a very stable poll.
Few Americans change their allegiance from one candidate to another during the election season; the President will lose this election unless his voters go to the polls and Biden fans do not cast their ballots. In spite—oops, make that “because”—of news coverage that shows completely dispirited Republicans who intend to sleep through Election Day without voting, I suspect that perhaps we have a chance that the coronavirus will spook enough Democrat partisans to avoid the polls, expecting victory nonetheless, and the mail voting system will confuse them too much to get those ballots submitted legally and counted.
Please stop giving that child molesting homo click revenue !
I posted it because IMO, Rush hasn’t sounded that confident the past two days. Freepers and DUmmies share one trait...cheerleading among themselves without considering other factors. I hope Trump wins, but Rush hasn’t given me a lot of confidence in the outcome over the past two days. I sense desperation in his statements.
Rush is really sick of course he is not himself GEEZE!!!
I am predicting the opposite. If Trump wins, the Dems are going to try to keep the country locked down under the guise of COVID and try to destroy the economy. But if Biden manages to steal the election, then the world will suddenly be healed of the COVID epidemic, like the seas healed and the world suddenly became a better place when Obama won.
Rush is dying of cancer. Go see post #19. I just got these numbers!
Rush also said a few days ago he’s finally admitted to himself he’s living with a death sentence. Think that may have anything to do with his tone?? A Drudge poll these days is no different than a moveon.org poll.
Go see post#19
“ Freepers and DUmmies share one trait...cheerleading among themselves without considering other factors.”
Actually, by far the greater propensity amongst FReepers is pearl-clutching as opposed to cheerleading.
Now that we are getting close to the election, the FAKE NEWS media/Democrats/pollsters have to start reining in their assertions that Biden is winning.
They should have been ashamed and embarrassed by their RIDICULOUS assertions about Hillary winning in 2016, but they just shrugged it off.
This time, since they faced little repercussions from their hugely inaccurate and biased predictions last time, they are only now starting to move toward reality. Mostly because it will be a YUGE Trump LANDSLIDE this time and they know it.
Their excuse will be “modeling”. The coronavirus model was way wrong, so they will blame their FAKE polls on “modeling”. They are already telling us that.
“Economist has Biden up only because of turnout model.”
The area around Washington DC has most the wealthiest ZIP codes in the country... mansions everywhere - and all on "public servants middle-class pay"... At least the corrupt FBI and equally corrupt 'news' services in the US agree... Biden pays $20,000 A MONTH rent... on his retirement pension...
Is HRC warming up in the bullpen?
Giuliani the other night slipped something into a discussion about Polls, he said something to the effect that Trump was doing better than expected in 5 states, but he wouldn’t disclose which to keep the Dems from knowing.
These Politicians know where they are, they know how to poll.
Also, if Biden/Kamala was a winning ticket, wouldn’t Obama and Clinton be supporting them? Nope, crickets. The B/K ticket is DOA, and that is why even they don’t bother running a campaign!
Frankly, if you look at the concerns of the group... it does not seem to be in line with the concerns of the rest of the US Population.
I would also question your seeming assertion that Republican voters have been discouraged by the polls and news coverage enough to not vote. I am not sensing that with my friends and family and there is a wide “diversity” of opinions, level of enthusiasm, and political awareness.
And at least 20% of those attending Trump rallies are democrats.
I think this chart from Pew is far more accurate: 
Love to know about the Congressional races.
I have been watching and going to GOP rallies and speeches since the Nixon years when I was a teen. Trump’s events are the most electrifying that I have ever seen. He has a genuine and deep bond with his supporters that is beyond that of any contemporary figure.
+40 to 50 GOP House seat gain
+4 to 7plus seat gain Senate
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