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Trump declared winner by The Supremes sometime between Thanksgiving and Hanukkah ... 👍 🇺🇸 🙏
In a FAIR election, Trump wins in a landslide. The voter fraud will be much worse this time than in 2016.
To paraphrase Ben Shapiro, “Corruption and Fraud don’t care about your feelings.”
I live in rural Virginia between Richmond and Charlottesville, and what’s upsetting to me is all the Biden signs I see in the country on small rural roads where I ride my motorcycles.
Heavy Trump areas 4 years ago, now it actually seems the Biden signs outnumber the Trump signs - and this in small rural homes where income has to be low.
Goochland (heavy Trump area), Powhatan, Amelia, Louisa, Fluvanna, Cumberland, Buckingham.
My take on the “feel” of the election is more 2004 than 1964. Bush was vilified for four years as Trump has been. Many polls favored Kerry, though though not to the degree Biden is running ahead right now. Nonetheless, other counterfactual data points favor Trump. The enthusiasm gap, “shy voters,” the question of whether people are better off now versus four years ago, etc. Plus rally attendance repeats the message sent four years ago.
As much as I’d like to see a landslide, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I expect a fairly narrow Trump victory. I’m predicting he takes Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Wisconsin to eke out a win.
Difficult to get a feel when the media is corrupt and in the bag for Biden, and the polls continue to be somewhat inaccurate and Biden refuses to appear for a no holds barred press event.
I was also sure that Obama would never win a second term...
The four year media war against Trump combined with the deep-state undermining and Democrat war and obstructionism will make sure Biden wins, by hook or by crook. That’s what I think. I just hope we can hang onto the Senate, even if by the barest of threads.
we are all in this together!
I do like the point made yesterday that the only indicator that biden is winning is the media polls
everything else points to Trump: intensity, car/boat parades (spontaneous rallies), the secondary polling info (who do you think will win? who are your neighbors voting for?) and African American numbers (if they hold); registration trends, etc.
So it “feels” like Trump is doing great...YET, we know that the fraud machine is working overtime. And we know that the D’s likely depressed their vote with Covid fear (oops!), and we also know that fraud does take some work, some planning, and does have limits to it (very helpful on the margins...but can you create 500,000 votes? That seems hard).
We also know that social media is censoring Trump, but....it’s not like he’s an unknown.
Soooooo....net net. Trump is doing really well. He has an excellent shot. His lawyers seem very ready for the chaos to come. He might well win.
He might even win big.
The only thing to fear, is fraud itself.
Signs around here are leaning toward POTUS and the GOP contenders in most races.
There is every reason to think Trump will win in a landslide.
There is also every reason to believe that there will be sufficient election fraud and upheaval, that Biden will end up as the next POTUS.
And this scares me to death.
I’m having a really hard time getting a feel for the likely election outcome also..
As you mentioned, enthusiasm does indeed look to be TOTALLY different and that gives me some hope..
BUT - I’m having a hard time believing that every single pollster (literally EVERY. SINGLE. ONE) is making the same mistakes, or that there is some number of huge “shy Trump voters” out there.
I realize it’s FR and for that reason we skew to “of COURSE Trump is gonna wipe the floor with Biden!”.. That said, I really don’t see us winning this one. There were too many states that Trump won by razor thin margins (eg: MI at 10-11K last time), and outside of FR people are exasperated by COVID and their perceptions that he didn’t manage it well (eg: “downplaying” it, all the BS around pishing masks which could have helped us get this under control like most other countries have). And I’m even pretty worried about the Senate, though I hope we can pull out a surprise win or two like John James over Gary Peters in MI. And no way on earth this is going to be a Trump “landslide”. (That’s some serious cool-aid drinking there, IMHO).. if we do somehow manage to win, it’s gonna be a squeaker decided in late Nov or even December after a series of nightmare vote “counts” that will make Bush v. Gore look like a pleasant day at the park by comparison.
For the record, I hope I’m 100% wrong. But enthusiasm gap aside, every single poll can’t possibly be making the same mistakes or have the same spin to suppress R turnout, either. That’s pretty hard to fathom. I also think there’s a lot of “Trump fatigue” outside of FR out there, and that’s likely going to affect things as well.
We won’t know until December when the Florida Secretary of State...Oh, wait, that was 2000 - never mind.
Good post. I am wondering the same thing. What I am seeing are Trump signs and banners almost exclusively. Only one guy for twenty miles has a Biden banner. (I mean what planet is he from?) I live in a very rural area of the Texas hill country on a county road. People here own acres of property, know their neighbors, own guns, and vote for Trump. How in the world is it possible that he could lose this election?!
Look at the states he won in 2016...will there be any changes? It’s possible, but likely not. Look at states he lost with a narrow margin, will there be any changes? Possible, and wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota and/or New Hampshire come aboard...Nevada and New Mexico may, but longer shot. What does that mean? EV landslide...probably not popular vote only because of demographics in blue cities in most states, but that’s immaterial and should never be used as a talking point. Presidential elections are about the electoral college...not the popular vote.
My “feel” for what is going on is that this is Dole/Kemp ‘96 with the media attempting to see if they can still influence the outcome by their standard method of gaslighting.
Biden is a walking cadaver and nobody takes him seriously. Harris is Pelosi’s lapdog and if she wins it’s over for all of us.
Another indicator is Trump at his rallies over the next weeks. Last night he was loose and had a good time with the crowd...either he doesn’t care (not likely) or his internal polling data is looking good.
Trump supporters love him and see him as Mt. Rushmore material, along with being the last remaining barrier to full-blown socialism in this country.
Biden supporters either despise Trump, or will vote for him simply because they “always vote Democrat.”
The question now is which of these two groups turns out in greater numbers at the polls.
Trump declared winner by The Supremes sometime between Thanksgiving and Hanukkah ... 👍 🇺🇸 🙏
It's America that's on the ballot. PDJT is just the placeholder.
If not for these polls, would anyone doubt for a second that Trump wins easily? Of course not.
The incumbent always wins except in rare situations - like Carter being outmatched by Ronald Reagan in 1980 - and like Bush having 20 million Republican votes stolen from him by Ross Perot in 1992.
No one can seriously say Joe Biden is the Ronald Reagan of 2020 - and there is no third party.
It is clearly the polls causing any doubts.
So, let’s look at the polls.
I’m not a mathematician, but I’m 68 and I’ve seen math used dishonestly often enough. I remember during the eighties the Democrats and fake news trying to vilify oil companies by showing headlines like “Oil Giants See 300% Profit”.
Now, if they had said “growth in profits”’ they might have been right - because the year to year CHANGE in profit rate was from a paltry .5% to a paltry 1.5%!- a 300% increase. But their intention was to deceive.
This is happening with the polls.
Can a mathematician explain to me why a pollster would want a weighted sample rather than a random sample? It makes no sense to me.
If you want to know which candidate has more popular support, wouldn’t you simply get a random sample of the population large enough, and random enough to represent the population as a whole?
You might say - that fails to account for the fact that some people are likely to vote and some unlikely. Fair enough, so ask questions to determine their likelihood of voting, then present the results of that group as well.
You might say (and here is where you lose me) - if you know 40% of voters are Democrats, yet your random sample only included 30% Democrats, you must weight the poll results to correct for the error.
I’m not a mathematician, but I sometimes know when I’m being bullshitted by one.
If you “know” 40% of the voters are Democrats, yet your “random” sample only includes 30% Democrats - NEWSFLASH! - one of your assumptions is wrong:
Either your sample wasn’t random enough or large enough to be representative, or 40% of voters aren’t really Democrats.
Don’t “correct“ it by weighting it! Either except the uncorrected results, or toss it out and start over!
Like I said, I’m not a mathematician - so if someone wants to tell me where I’m wrong, I am eager to learn.