Posted on 10/13/2020 6:12:34 AM PDT by cincinnati65
So, not sure where else to put this. I'm having a difficult time getting a "feel" for this election. By all counts, my gut is telling me that Trump should win in a landslide, based on the enthusiasm I see at Trump rallies, and the lack of the same at Biden "rallies". I totally discount the polling showing Biden ahead 15 points or whatever ridiculous number is coming out this week. Trump signs in my area are plentiful -- Biden signs, fewer than I saw for Hillary. But I remain concerned as to whether this is just the area I live in (middle Georgia), or what others are seeing on the ground in their area. As opposed to other elections where I "hoped" Dole would win, but "knew" Clinton would, or "hoped" McCain would win, but "knew" Obama would.
In a FAIR election, Trump wins in a landslide. The voter fraud will be much worse this time than in 2016.
To paraphrase Ben Shapiro, “Corruption and Fraud don’t care about your feelings.”
And the ability to stop it is a whole lot better too!
I live in rural Virginia between Richmond and Charlottesville, and what’s upsetting to me is all the Biden signs I see in the country on small rural roads where I ride my motorcycles.
Heavy Trump areas 4 years ago, now it actually seems the Biden signs outnumber the Trump signs - and this in small rural homes where income has to be low.
Goochland (heavy Trump area), Powhatan, Amelia, Louisa, Fluvanna, Cumberland, Buckingham.
My take on the “feel” of the election is more 2004 than 1964. Bush was vilified for four years as Trump has been. Many polls favored Kerry, though though not to the degree Biden is running ahead right now. Nonetheless, other counterfactual data points favor Trump. The enthusiasm gap, “shy voters,” the question of whether people are better off now versus four years ago, etc. Plus rally attendance repeats the message sent four years ago.
As much as I’d like to see a landslide, I don’t think it’s going to happen. I expect a fairly narrow Trump victory. I’m predicting he takes Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and Wisconsin to eke out a win.
Difficult to get a feel when the media is corrupt and in the bag for Biden, and the polls continue to be somewhat inaccurate and Biden refuses to appear for a no holds barred press event.
I was also sure that Obama would never win a second term...
The four year media war against Trump combined with the deep-state undermining and Democrat war and obstructionism will make sure Biden wins, by hook or by crook. That’s what I think. I just hope we can hang onto the Senate, even if by the barest of threads.
we are all in this together!
I do like the point made yesterday that the only indicator that biden is winning is the media polls
everything else points to Trump: intensity, car/boat parades (spontaneous rallies), the secondary polling info (who do you think will win? who are your neighbors voting for?) and African American numbers (if they hold); registration trends, etc.
So it “feels” like Trump is doing great...YET, we know that the fraud machine is working overtime. And we know that the D’s likely depressed their vote with Covid fear (oops!), and we also know that fraud does take some work, some planning, and does have limits to it (very helpful on the margins...but can you create 500,000 votes? That seems hard).
We also know that social media is censoring Trump, but....it’s not like he’s an unknown.
Soooooo....net net. Trump is doing really well. He has an excellent shot. His lawyers seem very ready for the chaos to come. He might well win.
He might even win big.
This is the most telegraphed attempt at stealing an election ever. Because of that, I have faith that the Trump campaign has a legal army in place and they’re ready to fight.
Fraud works best when it’s unexpected...this is the opposite as everyone is waiting and looking for it. It’s difficult to accomplish fraud in the light of day....and right now there are flood lights positioned all over the place.
that was definitely wishful thinking....obama was hugely popular...and romney was a terrible candidate.
The only thing to fear, is fraud itself.
The question is whether there are enough Pub inroads into the black community this year to overcome traditional Dem tactics. This morning it was reported the Dems had dozens of vans bringing Black and other Dem voters to the early voting in Georgia. Lines were so long that some waited more than just a couple of hours to vote. The unknown is how many are going to abandon the traditional one-party vote to take a chance with the other party.To overcome the optics of this, pubs have to likewise make sure their voters don’t get discouraged and get them to vote to counter and overcome the lead in the polls that the media says exist.
Signs around here are leaning toward POTUS and the GOP contenders in most races.
There is every reason to think Trump will win in a landslide.
There is also every reason to believe that there will be sufficient election fraud and upheaval, that Biden will end up as the next POTUS.
And this scares me to death.
Somewhat inaccurate?
I’m having a really hard time getting a feel for the likely election outcome also..
As you mentioned, enthusiasm does indeed look to be TOTALLY different and that gives me some hope..
BUT - I’m having a hard time believing that every single pollster (literally EVERY. SINGLE. ONE) is making the same mistakes, or that there is some number of huge “shy Trump voters” out there.
I realize it’s FR and for that reason we skew to “of COURSE Trump is gonna wipe the floor with Biden!”.. That said, I really don’t see us winning this one. There were too many states that Trump won by razor thin margins (eg: MI at 10-11K last time), and outside of FR people are exasperated by COVID and their perceptions that he didn’t manage it well (eg: “downplaying” it, all the BS around pishing masks which could have helped us get this under control like most other countries have). And I’m even pretty worried about the Senate, though I hope we can pull out a surprise win or two like John James over Gary Peters in MI. And no way on earth this is going to be a Trump “landslide”. (That’s some serious cool-aid drinking there, IMHO).. if we do somehow manage to win, it’s gonna be a squeaker decided in late Nov or even December after a series of nightmare vote “counts” that will make Bush v. Gore look like a pleasant day at the park by comparison.
For the record, I hope I’m 100% wrong. But enthusiasm gap aside, every single poll can’t possibly be making the same mistakes or have the same spin to suppress R turnout, either. That’s pretty hard to fathom. I also think there’s a lot of “Trump fatigue” outside of FR out there, and that’s likely going to affect things as well.
Virginia...is gone and not returning anytime soon.
Heavy Trump areas 4 years ago, now it actually seems the Biden
signs outnumber the Trump signs - and this in small rural homes
where income has to be low.
************
Signs posted along rural roads aren’t necessarily indicators of
what the electorate will do. This may be the actions of local
campaign groups.
Because Trump supporters are smart enough to know Trump signs will be stolen or their property destroyed
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