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I’m having a really hard time getting a feel for the likely election outcome also..

As you mentioned, enthusiasm does indeed look to be TOTALLY different and that gives me some hope..

BUT - I’m having a hard time believing that every single pollster (literally EVERY. SINGLE. ONE) is making the same mistakes, or that there is some number of huge “shy Trump voters” out there.

I realize it’s FR and for that reason we skew to “of COURSE Trump is gonna wipe the floor with Biden!”.. That said, I really don’t see us winning this one. There were too many states that Trump won by razor thin margins (eg: MI at 10-11K last time), and outside of FR people are exasperated by COVID and their perceptions that he didn’t manage it well (eg: “downplaying” it, all the BS around pishing masks which could have helped us get this under control like most other countries have). And I’m even pretty worried about the Senate, though I hope we can pull out a surprise win or two like John James over Gary Peters in MI. And no way on earth this is going to be a Trump “landslide”. (That’s some serious cool-aid drinking there, IMHO).. if we do somehow manage to win, it’s gonna be a squeaker decided in late Nov or even December after a series of nightmare vote “counts” that will make Bush v. Gore look like a pleasant day at the park by comparison.

For the record, I hope I’m 100% wrong. But enthusiasm gap aside, every single poll can’t possibly be making the same mistakes or have the same spin to suppress R turnout, either. That’s pretty hard to fathom. I also think there’s a lot of “Trump fatigue” outside of FR out there, and that’s likely going to affect things as well.

The real question is how many people are going to change their vote from 2016 to 2020 either way.

Imho that will be a _very_ small number, probably less than two percent of voters.

That is why the polls are laughable on their face.

So, once we get past looking at idiotic polls, the question is which way the one or two percent change will go.

I believe it will break towards the incumbent President.

Biden is a stunningly weak candidate, and most young people hate him—really hate him, so they are not motivated to vote for him. They also hate snail mail in general, so they don’t want to vote by mail.

Law and order is big. We will find out how big soon enough, but I believe it will persuade some wavering suburbanites that Democrats are hazardous to their wealth and health. I expect that to effect some close Congressional elections as well.

Taxes are another factor. Do the swing voters want higher taxes? We will find out soon enough, but I believe the answer is “no”.

Those are some of the reasons I am confident about the President’s re-election, and I believe the margin of victory will be adequate to overcome Democratic fraud.