Monmouth poll: Biden up 12pts in Pennsylvania

Challenger pulls into double-digit lead over Trump West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead over Donald Trump among all registered voters in Pennsylvania and anywhere from an 8-point to 11-point lead among likely voters, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This marks an improvement from Biden’s single-digit lead in a Monmouth poll just over one month ago. More voters trust the challenger than the incumbent on key issues, such as handling the pandemic. The poll does not find much shift in opinion since the president’s own Covid-19 diagnosis. Other findings show a Democratic advantage in a trio of statewide office races and a tight margin in the generic party preference for Congress.

Garbage in Garbage out? The strange thing is “experts” are relying on these polls to make their betting odds. I agree investors these days are not the smartest in the gene pool but many seem to be asking to lose big time.

To be fair I really cannot believe Trump is going to lose Florida, which pollsters are saying. He can lose PENN and still win by picking up NH and one of the 3 mid west states.

According to Steve Bannon's War Room citing 538 only moments ago only moments ago, Monmouth is a reasonably reliable poll accurate 80% of the time.

On October 6th, Monmouth polls are 80% accurate?

Really, Steve Bannon?

How does one know that?

How does one prove that.

One can't of course.

Bannon is confusing November election day polls, which can be checked by the same day election, with polls that are done weeks before an election, that can't be checked nor proven to be "80% correct".

Pennsylvania new registrations as of October 2, 2020 Republicans out pacing Democrats in every critical county:
Bucks County Democrats -3,668
Republicans – 6622
Allegheny County Democrats – 6303
Republicans – 7906

Erie County Democrat - 15 yes 15!
Republican - 1746
Lackawanna County Democrat - 560
Republican -2150
Luzerne County Democrat – 185
Republican – 3513
Commentary
This is very good news. The movement toward Trump and Republicans is picking up speed.

https://www.weaselzippers.us/457088-gop-outpacing-democrats-in-new-voter-registrations-in-every-critical-pennsylvania-county/

It offends common sense to believe that Trump is 12 points down today in Pennsylvania. It just doesn't compute. But it is not at all unreasonable to believe that Trump is down in Pennsylvania by a margin that we sitting in our armchairs simply cannot know.

If he is down 12 points he has got to make up about one point every two days between now and the election, assuming no one is already voting in Pennsylvania. Fortunately, I don't think that is the challenge.

I do believe that the field of undecideds has narrowed considerably so I'm in the school that the election will be decided on turn out. Clearly, intensity exists on both sides but it is hard to believe that a top down campaign by a candidate with absolutely no charisma and a dodgy biography can stimulate the kind of turnout that broken glass Republicans are sure to deliver.

Moreover, I have heard that Trump has as many as 3,500,000 foot soldiers in the field and Biden has neglected the ground game up until now when he mounts a dilatory effort. He suffers under the contradiction of bunkering down because of the virus against foot soldiers banging on doors in person which is the necessary component of a ground game.

This disparity in ground game logistics might well explain at least partially Democrats vociferous objection to Trump's public appearances without masks etc.

Now that Trump is benched for some time and now that the Barrett hearings will consume much of the oxygen, Trump must find a way to virtually campaign and combine it with troops on the ground knocking on doors and surrogates in the precincts conducting mini rallies.

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