Why this will be the lowest turnout election in decades

Vanity | October 2, 2020 | Bort

[bort]

The current conventional wisdom is that 2020 will shatter previous election turnout numbers. This narrative is largely being claimed by progressive academics and journalists who have (correctly) observed that absentee, vote by mail ballot ("VBM") requests and returns have been off the charts this year, with Democrats "out-requesting" VBM by a 2 to 1 margin. Au contraire, a look at the numbers and a little logical thinking suggest that 2020 will have the LOWEST turnout in a generation. Consider the following:

1) There is ZERO evidence that black voters will turn out in AVERAGE numbers, let alone RECORD numbers. I have noted before the North Carolina VBM numbers, which suggest a drop-off in black voting. My job requires me to interact with working-class black folks daily. Not only is there ZERO enthusiasm for Joe Biden, there is also a disproportionate, palpable fear of the China Virus among many blacks that is far and above whites.

Question: If you have little enthusiasm for Biden and you think you might DIE by going to a polling place, will you vote? Finally, black men are "ok" with Trump. They may not vote for him in huge numbers, but they are not turned off by his lack of decorum. Prior to Obama, black turnout was typically below 60%, but then jumped to 68% with Obama on the ticket (it was 64% in 2016). Prediction: Black turnout drops to 57%. Continued below.

[Tunehead54]

Thanks. In Florida they report on mail-ins and early voting ballots by party (R vs D) which I think is 1) Unconscionable, 2) unfair and 3) information for targeting to the fraudsters to harvest votes in precincts with no paper trail.

Me? One election, one day, a national holiday. Be there or do not be counted. ID and presence on precinct list required.

How hard is that? Sigh.

[deport]

It will be interesting to see what the turn out numbers are at the closing bell on Nov. 3, 2020.

I personally don’t see a reason not to get out and vote as normal.
People are out going to the grocery store, shopping malls, local
quick stop, ect.ect.

In person early voting is scheduled like any normal presidential
election where I live. Mail voting for those in need, early in person
voting for 10 days prior to the election and Election day voting at
local precinct locations.

What is all this hoopla about?

[bort]

I personally don’t see a reason not to get out and vote as normal.
People are out going to the grocery store, shopping malls
————————————————————————————-
I completely understand your point. However, in my line of work, I deal with working class and so-called down-scale Americans every day. It is shocking to me how many people are petrified of the virus. Older Black women especially are fearful of the virus. Many of the folks that the Democrats rely upon to show up at the polls rely on church buses, vans, etc. Black churches are affectively shut down in most swing states, which eliminates a voter drive tool for the Democrats. The reason why Republicans are out -registering Democrats in voters is because Democrats are afraid to canvas in person. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a substantial drop off in voting due to the virus.

[deport]

If I had to buy postage to put on, I’d have to run
to the post office and go inside.

*********

A little exercise is good for most of us. I don’t know the state you
live in but I think voting will much like normal for most states.
I think there are five/six states that don’t have early voting and
you must vote in person on election day or mail.

I’ve voted in person during early voting for the last forty years
or so. I will again this time if I’m alive and walking.

[Donnafrflorida]

White woman here over 60. I am voing ON voting day, in person, and without a mask. I will keep my distance

[deport]

Male and going to vote during in person early voting
which is from Oct. 15 to Oct. 31.

[SamAdams76]

Democrat women are fueling the VBM surge BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SCARED OF THE CHINA VIRUS. Elderly/older voters ditto.

I live in an over-55 community and there are some people here who literally haven't left their homes since this whole thing started back in March. They are absolutely petrified to come out. A couple months ago, we had a fire alarm in one of the condo buildings and a few of them WOULD NOT COME OUTSIDE. It turned out to be a false alarm but they would have preferred to burn to death evidently.

[bort]

Exactly. And polls and anecdotal evidence suggests that liberal women and black women are the most scared. 10X more VBM ballots have been requested in NC. It’s fear, not enthusiasm. Great comment.

[freepersup]

Interesting thread by "Freeper" Bort on why this may be a low turnout election.https://t.co/Tr2UVOXzRh— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 3, 2020

[freepersup]

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

[Betty Jane]

I’m voting in person. I’ve never voted by mail. I was just thinking if someone is too scared to go out, stamps could be just another stumbling block to mailing the ballot back.

[bort]

BTW, my prediction for low turnout means percentage turnout, not raw numbers. Obviously population growth increases raw #s.

[deport]

Stamps can be purchase via mail from the Post Office.

[bert]

Outstanding Vanity

Thanks for your great analysis and resultant finding

[backwoods-engineer]

Classless jerk? Maybe. But I’m sick of hearing lies spewed on FR.

[bort]

Classless jerk? Maybe. But I’m sick of hearing lies spewed on FR
________________________________________________
No one lied. The thread I posted was an OPINION. I welcome comments and criticism. My belief, based on current data and personal experience, is that, percentage-wise, 2020 will be a very low turnout year. If you disagree, fine. But you can disagree without the insulting tone. Right?

[CodeToad]

Black registrations for Trump are high, so, no, black turnout will not be low.

[bort]

Black registrations for Trump are high, so, no, black turnout will not be low
__________________________________________________
You make a good point, however.....Two things can be true: 1) Trump can improve his #s with black voters; and 2) overall black turnout can drop.

I’m going to do a separate post on this issue, but there are two major reasons why I disagree with you. First, blacks are far more scared of the China Virus than any other group. Black women especially. I interact with working-class black folks every day (not the MSNBC blacks). There is a much greater fear among this group of China Virus; logically, the more scared you are of China Virus, the less likely you will show up at a polling place. Second, there is zero enthusiasm for Biden. OK, so if you hate Trump with a passion, you will show up. But for the balance of voters who are virulently anti-Trump, will you show up and, in your mind, risk your life at a crowded polling place to vote for a guy you have no enthusiasm for? Expect a drop-off in black voting.

[CodeToad]

Blacks are not afraid of the virus. In fact, I see them out and about without masks far more than whites. They don’t get all cerebral about it like scared little white chicks do.

[bort]

Blacks are not afraid of the virus. In fact, I see them out and about without masks far more than whites. They don’t get all cerebral about it like scared little white chicks do.
______________________________________________________
Really? Black men, not so much. Older Black women? Fear is off the charts. Some of the fear is legit. Blacks are far more likely to personally know someone who died of China Virus. The blacks that have died of China Virus are largely in their 50s and 60s, whereas whites are more likely to be nursing home patients/80s and 90s. Blacks as a group are far more likely to be in risk groups. Some of the fear is media driven—watch MSNBC and CNN-—they are non-stop pushing stories about blacks dying at higher levels than whites, etc. As to turnout, most whites on FR don’t understand how black turnout works. It typically works through black churches, with buses and vans to get older black folks out to the polls. Black churches are effectively shut down in most states, and who is going to get on a crowded bus? Trust me, there would be a drop off in black voting this year if Obama was on the ballot. How much of a drop-off, we will find out, but there will be one.

BTW, your line about scared little white chicks is also true. Women will have a drop off as compared to men. That’s why I’m calling BS on these pollsters who are expecting 2008/12 percentages for Dem. voters.