Posted on 10/02/2020 10:15:15 AM PDT by bort
The current conventional wisdom is that 2020 will shatter previous election turnout numbers. This narrative is largely being claimed by progressive academics and journalists who have (correctly) observed that absentee, vote by mail ballot ("VBM") requests and returns have been off the charts this year, with Democrats "out-requesting" VBM by a 2 to 1 margin. Au contraire, a look at the numbers and a little logical thinking suggest that 2020 will have the LOWEST turnout in a generation. Consider the following:
1) There is ZERO evidence that black voters will turn out in AVERAGE numbers, let alone RECORD numbers. I have noted before the North Carolina VBM numbers, which suggest a drop-off in black voting. My job requires me to interact with working-class black folks daily. Not only is there ZERO enthusiasm for Joe Biden, there is also a disproportionate, palpable fear of the China Virus among many blacks that is far and above whites.
Question: If you have little enthusiasm for Biden and you think you might DIE by going to a polling place, will you vote? Finally, black men are "ok" with Trump. They may not vote for him in huge numbers, but they are not turned off by his lack of decorum. Prior to Obama, black turnout was typically below 60%, but then jumped to 68% with Obama on the ticket (it was 64% in 2016). Prediction: Black turnout drops to 57%. Continued below.
Your point about lack of staffing at polling places make sense. And we all know that it will be DEMOCRAT areas that will be short-staffed (they are slow and short-staffed even without a virus). Imagine if you are a Dem. voter who is scared of China virus and you roll up to a polling place with 100 people standing in line b/c of short-staffing. I think this type of stuff will cause a Dem. drop-off, as well as black churches being unable to bus tens of thousands of voters to the polls b/c of China Virus.
I think that the in-person voting will be severely depressed when people go to their polling place and find the line snaking for blocks and blocks, with people standing 6’ apart in the line to maintain social distancing, and poll workers walking up and down the line enforcing said social distancing.
A line that would normally snake through the school hallways and maybe out the door for a few yards will suddenly be a single file, 6’ spaced line that goes on for several blocks. People will drive by their polling place, glance at the line, and say “forget it” and go back home.
Hopefully, Trump supporters are more of the ‘crawl-on-broken-glass’ motivated voter, and will stick it out in the long lines, giving Trump a landslide popular vote win.
Hey, a guy can dream, can’t he?
VBM has an even lower effort threshold than signing up and heading in to vote. It seems likely that it invites even more frivolous voting.
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Replying to your point: Yesterday my family received our mail in ballots here in Maryland. It took me 1 minute to fill it out and seal the envelope. My wife, who had never voted by mail, took about 5 minutes to read it, follow the instructions, and seal it, but not before asking me questions about how to do it. My 19 year old kid looked at the ballot and the 3 pieces of instructions like it was a complicated erector set. The ballot was accompanied by instructions for handicapped voters, for those who assist others in voting, etc. I had to literally walk him through how to vote. In NC, 5% (!) of all mail-in votes by black voters have been rejected b/c of mistakes (forget to sign the ballot) and a little bit smaller percentage for younger voters. For first-time voters, it takes more of an effort to VBM.
I dont think so Bort. I think people are getting hip to the vote by mail scheme and want their votes to count. I think it will be a record turn out.
You got it half right. Turnout will be low but on the Democrat side only. Every able body Republican will make it out to vote. Also right leaning independents will vote in person. Democrats, not so much.
“The problem is all of the Democrats who will vote early and often.”...
... and don’t stop until they win (or get caught and stopped)!
Thanks for pointing that out. I just read Larry’s post and the comments. I believe the China Virus is going to keep a chunk of un-enthused voters away from the polls. The next logical question: Which voters are the most afraid of the China Virus? I can tell you my teenage sons are not afraid. Them and their young male friends mock it. Rural people are not particularly afraid of it. Men overall are less afraid than women. Working-class men are less afraid than white collar men. Trump supporters who pack into to see POTUS are not afraid. The group that is petrified: Black women, especially 45 and over. Logically, Dems will lose votes b/c of China Virus coupled with lack of enthusiasm for their candidate.
I wish I didn’t agree with your line of thinking. Tragic but you are probably correct.
The democrats want every non-vote to be a vote for them. They truly believe this. They think everyone who declines to vote should be counted as a Democrat vote, and they are diligently working to reshape the voting system of our country to implement that idea.
They want to win by default.
“Democracy” in action.
The counter to this is that black voters came out to support Biden over Sanders. Sanders was beating Biden handily until they got to states with significant black voters. Sanders got spanked the rest of the way.
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Good point, but.... Biden didn’t have much competition for black votes in SC. He had Clyburn and the “black SC establishment” behind him. Sanders had zero appeal to black voters over the age of 30. And he was a known quantity. I just don’t see black enthusiasm for Biden, especially among men. And the hundreds of black folks I have dealt with since China Virus-—the fear of the virus is palpable.
Did your ballots come with postage? If I had to buy postage to put on, I’d have to run to the post office and go inside. So just another hiccup in the process for the not determined voter.
Of course the ballots came with postage! It’s Maryland! Democrats can’t pay for anything in this state.
Low turnout is good news for President Trump.
JoMa
You’re full of crap. There are people who haven’t voted in 4 elections who are about to vote Trump. It’s in the Trump rally data, released the other day by Ronna McDaniel.
You’re full of crap
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And you are a classless jerk. If you disagree, state so without the insulting tone. BTW, my main point is that Democrat turnout will be much lower than projected.
If you remember, does your ballot ID you as an R or a D or whatever on the exterior of the mail-in? Your signature on the outside envelope? Just don’t know ... quick yes or no would be appreciated.
In Florida they “report” via the MSM the numbers of mail-in requests vs the mail-in returns by PARTY.
That makes me worry that the Dims will “harvest” ballots from precincts they need or file for Dims on election day that didn’t vote.
Sigh. This election is going to be 50 times worse than 2000.
No.
We should organize freepers to a sneeze-a-thon on 11/3!
Show up at a liberal polling places and scare the Karens away by sneezing loudly at the entrances.
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