Tonight, “American Elections: the Close, the Controversial, the Groundbreaking” webcast free but you must register.
Thanks Professor.
Bongino was saying this was a base election, not a normal ‘sway the middle’ election.
I tend to agree. Everyone is polarized about Trump. I have seen fellow quite-liberal teachers around me admit they may vote Trump just because 2017-2019 memories of tax refunds that were significantly higher. If they admit they might vote Trump, that means they’re most definitely secretly voting Trump.
Furthermore Trump split off some base D votes by getting Biden to swat away Bernie and the idea that Antifa is a threat. There are plenty of urban voters that have seen it firsthand and disagree strongly.
If overall turnout is low, it should favor the more energized voters and I’d agree slight advantage to R. This is of course why so many D are pushing for mail out voting.
Ultimately, among those afraid to go out to vote would seem to suppress D vote more the R vote.
As for polling manipulation, that wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Figures lie and liars figure.
Of course. Back in the day I did some P/T phone surveying for an aluminum company to earn extra beer money. We weren’t shilling anything; it was on the up-and-up, from that perspective. But there’s a science they follow with it - calling certain zip/area codes when they knew their target demographic was likely to be home, all sorts of other algebra involved. They can skew the numbers nine ways to Sunday to get the stats they want or need, and on the surface, it passes muster. It isn’t accurate, but it smells Pine Sol fresh. Same with these so-called election ‘polls’. Only in this case, it’s psychological warfare against the opposition and leverage with potential donors. We vote with our heads and our wallets, they vote with whatever giblets are remaining.
In the Norcal suburbs, you wouldn’t know Trump was running based on yard signs and bumper stickers. Drive an hour out of town and Trump signs absolutely everywhere. Even saw them in Sacramento of all places.
“He predicted a low turnout election.”
************************************
I’d be cautious on believing this very strongly. I believe I read earlier today that the mail-in vote “return rate” is higher now than the return rate at a comparable time in the 2016 election.
I have not seen a Biden/Harris yard sign in my hood and surrounding 100 miles, yet Trump/Pence is everywhere.
Interesting and even more interesting was this person receiving a letter from a pollster explaining how they polled people. Hmmm...
The Dornsife poll, which predicted a Trump win in 2016, has lowered the number of rural participants for their 2020 poll “to correct our weighing procedures”:
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3295/2020-daybreak-poll-qna-with-jill-darling-survey-director/
I think this election will be a C Change for America. I think a few Blue states will flip...America is getting fed up with Dems IMHO
Always enjoy your observations and analysis. Post more, please.
I don’t answer the phone from unknown callers. And CID has stated on occasion, that the caller was a pollster, or words to that effect.
How many suburban people follow similar phone protocols?
How many people period?
Thanks, Larry! Heard some of this on Rush today, but appreciate your more in-depth post here.
Very interesting, all predictions I’ve seen are for high turnout.
Very interesting, all predictions I’ve seen are for high turnout.
Three things working against the Dems:
1) their voters are more likely to be afraid to vote in person due to the virus.
2) their voters are more likely to be too lazy to vote by mail.
3) their most energized demo is younger Leftists. Young people don’t know how to mail a letter.
Cheating is the answer to all of these.