If overall turnout is low, it should favor the more energized voters and I’d agree slight advantage to R. This is of course why so many D are pushing for mail out voting.
Ultimately, among those afraid to go out to vote would seem to suppress D vote more the R vote.
As for polling manipulation, that wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Figures lie and liars figure.
The media has the Dems hysterical over this virus AND YES because of this their turnout will be low!! Our side on the other hand have believed this whole shut down, mask BS is ridiculous and are NOT afraid to leave our houses at all, WE will be at the polls crawling over broken glass!!
“If overall turnout is low,.....”
Trump turnout will NOT be low.