Posted on 09/30/2020 4:47:14 PM PDT by LS
Several things here for everyone.
First, don't know if you all caught this but earlier in the week Rush read a letter from a friend. This friend had received a letter from a pollster (so this is 3d hand . . . take it as you will). BUT:
The pollster told this guy that the reason the polls were so off, yet "appeared" to be more in line with the D/R splits was because they were actively seeking out zip codes that were SUBURBAN for Republicans, where they knew they'd reach higher levels of Karens and RINOS; and they deliberately avoided calling any rural R areas.
Second, when they called DemoKKKrats, they stayed away from Trump districts, industrial, manufacturing, so they eliminated all those Trump supporters. He said in that way they could pretend their polls were still "fairly sampled" but really weren't.
Second, Bruce Stanford on Twitter said something today that was pretty interesting. He predicted a low turnout election. Now, this actually seems reasonable but it will be a U curve: High DemoKKkrat turnout, high Republican turnout, not many Is or unlikely voters. The China Virus will keep some back. I think that they are genuinely torn between liking Trump for the economy prior to COVID, but disliking their current situation, and thus may stay home. Quite possible. Do the Rs win this low turnout war? Seems the likely scenario.
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Thanks Professor.
Bongino was saying this was a base election, not a normal ‘sway the middle’ election.
I tend to agree. Everyone is polarized about Trump. I have seen fellow quite-liberal teachers around me admit they may vote Trump just because 2017-2019 memories of tax refunds that were significantly higher. If they admit they might vote Trump, that means they’re most definitely secretly voting Trump.
Furthermore Trump split off some base D votes by getting Biden to swat away Bernie and the idea that Antifa is a threat. There are plenty of urban voters that have seen it firsthand and disagree strongly.
If overall turnout is low, it should favor the more energized voters and I’d agree slight advantage to R. This is of course why so many D are pushing for mail out voting.
Ultimately, among those afraid to go out to vote would seem to suppress D vote more the R vote.
As for polling manipulation, that wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Figures lie and liars figure.
Of course. Back in the day I did some P/T phone surveying for an aluminum company to earn extra beer money. We weren’t shilling anything; it was on the up-and-up, from that perspective. But there’s a science they follow with it - calling certain zip/area codes when they knew their target demographic was likely to be home, all sorts of other algebra involved. They can skew the numbers nine ways to Sunday to get the stats they want or need, and on the surface, it passes muster. It isn’t accurate, but it smells Pine Sol fresh. Same with these so-called election ‘polls’. Only in this case, it’s psychological warfare against the opposition and leverage with potential donors. We vote with our heads and our wallets, they vote with whatever giblets are remaining.
In the Norcal suburbs, you wouldn’t know Trump was running based on yard signs and bumper stickers. Drive an hour out of town and Trump signs absolutely everywhere. Even saw them in Sacramento of all places.
“He predicted a low turnout election.”
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I’d be cautious on believing this very strongly. I believe I read earlier today that the mail-in vote “return rate” is higher now than the return rate at a comparable time in the 2016 election.
With the advent of social media, Now more than ever pollsters know exactly what the attitudes and demographics are of the people that they call before they even call them. They know what GOP E respondents to call in order to get a liberal Republican bias they know what conservative Democrat districts and people to avoid like the plague and they do. There are conservative black neighborhoods.
Why do they do this.??
Because they are in the business of generating voter suppression polls to dispirit the conservative base. It won’t work... this election will be a slaughter.
And the harder they try the more they demonstrate to us their confidence in the fact that their side is headed for a catastrophic defeat.
Not that we can get cocky, but we need to understand why they’re doing things the way they are. Those riots in the street and these manipulative polls are the death throes of the Democratic/Communist Party.
You can almost smell the stench of their rotting political corpse. It’s way past time to bury the rotting body.
The media has the Dems hysterical over this virus AND YES because of this their turnout will be low!! Our side on the other hand have believed this whole shut down, mask BS is ridiculous and are NOT afraid to leave our houses at all, WE will be at the polls crawling over broken glass!!
Independent voters are bandwagon voters. They are witnessing all of this enthusiasm for Trump - the parades, the rallies, etc. and many of them will vote for Trump.
If every Republican would have just ran as constitutional conservatives, there wouldn't be a Democrat Party today. There would be a conservative Christian wing of the GOP vs the populist libertarian wing.
I have not seen a Biden/Harris yard sign in my hood and surrounding 100 miles, yet Trump/Pence is everywhere.
Nobody wants to risk having one’s yard torched or car smashed in the Norcal suburbs by displaying Trump’s name.
OTOH, I still see more Bernie bumper stickers than Biden-Harris ones. Also, more leftover Obozo/Biden 2012s than any new Biden ones.
Interesting and even more interesting was this person receiving a letter from a pollster explaining how they polled people. Hmmm...
The Dornsife poll, which predicted a Trump win in 2016, has lowered the number of rural participants for their 2020 poll “to correct our weighing procedures”:
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3295/2020-daybreak-poll-qna-with-jill-darling-survey-director/
Went up to Milwaukie, Oregon (Portland suburb) two weeks ago to visit family. Out in the neighborhood, no Biden/Harris signs, but a lot of BLM signs. And right in the middle between these houses and their BLM signs, a magnificent flagpole with a Trump 2020 flag: On the flag and directly beneath "Trump 2020" was "F*CK Your Feelings".
[I have not seen a Biden/Harris yard sign in my hood and surrounding 100 miles, yet Trump/Pence is everywhere.]
That was the entire purpose of the Bush League Republicans (Democrats in R jerseys).
Capture the other party and only give the voters Democrat-lite alternatives.
That's true. It's because they don't want anyone throwing a brick through their window. On the other hand, there are very few Biden signs. That's because very few are enthused at all about him.
It's a very strange election.
The most liberal “demographic “ is the black single woman. And they are also the demographic that is most afraid of covid. I read this in statistical info and experience it in my life.
My heart goes out to these women. In their culture, which they were born into, there is something systemic...welfarism. And for most it’s all they’ve known and for most they are in baby mama culture. This is not genetic. It is cultural.
I wish I could come alongside and help them get off this government plantation but few seem to want to trust or befriend me.
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