Posted on 06/15/2020 6:38:28 PM PDT by BenLurkin
A new study... provides an updated estimate of the likely number of alien civilizations that could exist in the Milky Way. The analysis...starts with revising the Drake equation...
"The classic method for estimating the number of intelligent civilizations relies on making guesses of values relating to life," said Westby in a press release. "Our new study simplifies these assumptions using new data, giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy."
Westby and Conselice...built a key assumption in to their estimate: Life on another planet will arise in a similar way to how it did on Earth.
The duo placed three different sets of limits on these "suitable planets" harboring life with weak, moderate and strong categories with different time frames for life to arise.
The weakest limits allowed them to make estimates on a time frame of greater than 5 billion years, while the strongest limit only assessed worlds between 4.5 and 5.5 billion years old.
When plugging the strongest limits and numbers into their complex new equation...data reveals there could be a minimum of eight CETI civilizations within the Milky Way.
On the other hand, using weaker limits, Westby and Conselice suggest there could be as many as 2,900 worlds where life has found a way that means we may be able to detect them sooner.
Though an interesting new way to examine an age-old question, the work relies on a lot of assumptions. The authors make it clear there is only one data point for intelligent, communicating life and that is humanity. Using us as the basis for other life in the cosmos may itself be flawed because the truth is we simply don't know what other intelligent life might look like or where it might thrive.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnet.com ...
Hope they wiped their hands after pulling that estimate out.
If all the virtue signaling around now goes to outer space aliens will pass us by for lack of intelligent life.
Huge chunks of Earth are without intelligent life, including CHAZ/CHOP, North Korea, the DNC, China Communist Party, Joe Biden’s basement, CNN, House Speaker’s office, most colleges & universities, and the NYC mayor’s mansion.
Given the paucity of data available for assigning values to its various terms, I’ve always considered the Drake equation as - perhaps - slightly marginally better than pulling a number out of one’s anal orifice.
Fun stuff.
But the answer is “between zero and one”.
The killer of intelligent species is bureaucracy.
...It’s too efficient to avoid, and too hidebound to survive changes.
So, eventually, when there’s a change... bureaucracy destroys the species in response.
I have a pet theory thats a variation on answers to the Fermi Paradox. Most answers postulate war or violence or something to that being the Great Filter but I think thats kind of akin to stating that the cause of death in a car crash was smashing your head against the windshield. And besides we’ve already been there done that with war and all that other stuff for practically as long as we existed. The short of my theory is a civilization that advances too far down the tech tree gradually is effeminiatized by more and more technology and steadily grows more decadent and libtarded until it collapses. I think there might be something to it...especially with recent events.
“giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy.”
Did anyone else find that hilarious?
And if you watch the video I cite in my post #11 above, you'll find it even more hilarious.
“Revising” the Drake equation.
We’ve only had wireless communications for a bit over 100 years out of the last 4 billion. Why should any other intelligent life be any different?
The short of my theory is a civilization that advances too far down the tech tree gradually is effeminiatized by more and more technology and steadily grows more decadent and libtarded until it collapses. I think there might be something to it...especially with recent events.
We tend to think our technological civilization will last forever. However, it is barely 100-250 years old (depending on when you start counting), not even a blink of an eye. There is no guarantee at all that intelligent beings will remain intelligent. A lot can go wrong. It is quite possible that intelligence may only be apparent for a few thousand years before it is extinguished.
It is also possible that being may become sufficiently advanced that they become machines or Gods that transition into another phase of existence. Lots of people also postulate we are living in a simulation. Much good SciFi has been written about all these possibilities.
So if each of those civilizations only lasts for a few thousand years at most, its easy to see how they could miss each other.
The big problem, the 500 lb gorilla, is DNA. Where would that come from? How would that naturally form? In order for there to be life, there has to be some blue print that tells matter what to do. This blue print far exceeds the known forces in nature. It also seems to exceed our current understanding of the workings of the physical world.
The answer is zero
Yet scientists have no clue as to how life arrived on earth.
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sure they do. Lightning strikes into a pool of hot dilute chemicals and presto one of the lucky ones creates life. then, in a reversal of all the laws of entropy, life gets more and more complex until it hits the 20th century.
Earth: 0
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The way our civilization is going, we deserve bonus points, so I’m going to say -1.
they dont have a very good track record “estimating” things lately
yup
Alien 1: Hey Klerg. the earthlings are seeking intelligent life again.
Alien 2: Oh goodie, fun time. Bring me the signal modulator. Let’s mess with em.
https://designmatrix.wordpress.com/2010/01/08/michael-crichton-seti-is-not-science/
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