Posted on 05/25/2020 8:41:27 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
A new model shows reopening states and ignoring the pandemic could result in more than 5 million people contracting coronavirus.
According to Yahoo Finance, a Penn Wharton Budget Model shows reopening states could cause positive coronavirus cases in the U.S. to jump to 5.4 million by the end of July. The model, which assumes states reopening May 18, explores various scenarios under which states reopen.
The model also includes lockdowns, a partial reopening, and takes into account whether social distancing rules would continue to be adhered to or are relaxed.
If states fully reopen with no social distancing rules in place, the model shows as many as 5.4 million people could contract coronavirus. If states reopen while still practicing measures of social distancing, the number drops to nearly 4.3 million. Partially reopening the states with social distancing rules in place would result in nearly 3.2 million positive cases, according to the model.
The current death toll in the United States is more than 91,000, according to Johns Hopkins. With states under a full lockdown, the model still projects the death toll at just over 156,000, an increase from its previous forecasts of 117,000.
A Penn Wharton Budget Model from May 1, showed more than 200,000 deaths related to coronavirus pandemic.
Although the model predicts a significant rise in cases and deaths, it does show that the economy will rebound faster if states are reopened. According to the model, if states stay in lockdown with social distancing orders in place, the U.S. GDP will shrink by 10.8% year over year by July 24.
However, reopening states will save the country from severe economic losses. If states reopen, the GDP would decline by 7.7% compared to 2019. If social distancing is reduced, GDP would decline by 6.6%.
Reopening states in spite of the coronavirus would also benefit job growth. More than 30 million Americans are currently unemployed. But if states reopened, 1 million jobs would be created by the end of July. If states aren’t reopened, millions more will join the unemployed ranks.
Wharton is a business school, not a medical institution or life sciences school. The Wharton Econometrics Model of the US economy is a marvel of mathematical and statistical complexity and most of the time highly inaccurate.
I have been alive and present, for every major illness scare since 1952. I AM one of the military members surviving the original 1976 swine flu that rahged on Fort Dix/McGuire AFB, Dover AFB.
All this cockamamie, backassward, governmental reaction is nonsense!!!
Enough with the “models”. Same politically motivated BS as AGW.
Big girls don’t cry...
Yahoo Finance, a Penn Wharton Budget Model, is that similar to the chucky cheese wayward home for burgers missing cheese?
The latest example of the Left breaking everything they touch.
People getting COVID-19 does not equal people dying from COVID-19.
Everyone is supposed to get it when “flattening the curve.” We only ever meant to assure hospitals could handle the load at all times.
Models take nothing into account. Models predict nothing. Models do the calculations that the “researcher” tells them to do with the data that he feeds them.
Giving it a reliable-sounding name like “Penn Wharton” does not make it reliable.
No computer model can possibly encompass ALL the variables of the system being modeled, therefore on a long enough timeline ALL computer models diverge from reality.
3,1.4,2
Absolute insanity. Yes, we've been had.
Hilarious...
And 25,000,000 could commit suicide if we don’t open up
and let them earn a living.
Two can play this game.
No. Let’s really see what the “death rate” is.
Deaths divided by population.
Isn’t Wharton a business school? U Penn also has has a medical school and a hospital.
So what? Survival rate is 99.9%. If everybody that gets out completely forgets how not to get it and gets it, then we will have herd immunity.
Is that a 4-plus size post?
MSM/DNC BS.
Another bull$hit model.
Thunder thighs.
The curve was flattened, now its time to squish the balloon and slow-walk this pandemic to its natural limits, which other recent models suggest may be far lower than needed to let this virus burn out, which will happen regardless of mitigation
In fact, the virus is disappearing so fast in England, it may negate their vaccine testing
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3848093/posts?page=1
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