Posted on 04/30/2020 3:05:32 PM PDT by RaceBannon
Corona Virus Daily Thread #49 COVID-19 4/30/2020
it kills me, I think they tried to sell us, that any virus, that we are not in contact with, will die eventually.
but to truly do that, we need to be welded in our homes like the Chinese did.
no one in, no one out, for minimum 3 weeks so the virus has no means to replicate...
except, now we find it in cats and dogs.
that means all it needs is an animal and it will replicate...
We need to quarantine cows, now, for 3 weeks, to slow the spread...
(I better net give them any ideas.)
Who are these people coming down with COVID-19 in record
numbers? How the hell did they catch it at home?
= =
I saw big numbers for NJ and NY....more nursing home deaths? Apartment dwellers?
What are some of the other hot areas? I haven’t seen stats/map, today.
I think a lot of them are nursing home deaths.
The little old people are essentially trapped ‘at home’ being cared for by sometimes infected caretakers.
And it’s hinky to me that sooooo many nursing homes have been hit. It’s almost as though someone is spreading it there on purpose.
Apartment dwellers share elevators, stairways and mail rooms. Sometimes air supplies too.
It will continue to circulate in those places indefinitely. No good way to avoid it.
Most of our cases are at a local meat processing facility. IIRC one death with that place but since the victim actually lived in another county and commuted that particular county got the death.
Very reasble story of an outbreak in an Iceland elder care facility. With other factors.
https://twitter.com/GylfiOlafsson/status/1255838116558123008
Yep....A Place for Mom to get COVID and Visiting Angels of Covid.
Scary.
I caught just a minute of the meeting/presser, today, that was about Protecting Americas Seniors....but, I think they contrasted the difference between NY Gov and FL Gov’s differing approaches to the nursing homes situation.
I need to find more detail.
SOUTH KOREA - STUDY
…”We described the epidemiologic characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak centered in a call center in South Korea. We identified 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in building X, indicating an attack rate of 8.5%. However, if we restrict our results to the 11th floor, the attack rate was as high as 43.5%. …
... Despite considerable interaction between workers on different floors of building X in the elevators and lobby, spread of COVID-19 was limited almost exclusively to the 11th floor, which indicates that the duration of interaction (or contact) was likely the main facilitator for further spreading of SARS-CoV-2.
...In recent a US study, the symptomatic secondary attack rate among 445 close contacts of COVID-19 case-patients was 10.5% among household members (3). In this outbreak in South Korea, we found that the secondary attack rate within the household was 16.5% among symptomatic index case-patients, which is consistent with other reports.
...The role of asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients in spreading the disease is of great concern. Among 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in this study, 4 (4.1%) remained asymptomatic during the 14-days of monitoring. This rate is lower than the 30.8% rate estimated in previous modeling (4)...Previous reports have postulated that SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic (or presymptomatic) case-patients might become transmissible to others (6); however, given the high degree of self-quarantine and isolation measures that were instituted after March 8 among this cohort, our analyses might have not detected the actual transmissibility in asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients. Robust mass testing of all suspected case-patients might have prevented asymptomatic transmission because asymptomatic persons were given information about their possible infection and therefore might have self-isolated from their household members....
... Date of symptom onset by office seat would be informative in understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close contact area. However, our findings demonstrate the power of screening all potentially exposed persons and show that early containment can be implemented and used in the middle of national COVID-19 outbreak. By testing all potentially exposed persons and their contacts to facilitate the isolation of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 case-patients, we might have helped interrupt transmission chains...
...In summary, this outbreak exemplifies the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2 with its propensity to cause large outbreaks among persons in office workplaces. Targeted preventive strategies might help mitigate the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in these vulnerable group.
complete writeup:
Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-1274_article
“The day after ‘we’ locked down, the parking lot at the local walmart was totally full, cars parked up and down the road. More than black friday even. Giant gaggles of people milling around in the parking lot.”
Same here for Lowes, tons of people shopping at Lowes for home improvement and garden items.
Thanks for the daily updates. Very informative.
I saw a reference on another site that antifa was going to send some deliberately infected ‘youngsters’ to infect the old ‘trumpsters’ at these ‘rallies’.
We’ll know in a cpl weeks if that was so.
Hope not though.
I can understand shopping for garden stuff. Totally.
These people were’t really shopping, they were milling around.
Nowhere else to go, nothing to do, go to walmart and ‘visit’.
Fortunately for my county it appears that the meat plant people either weren’t infected yet or didn’t go to walmart a whole lot with crowds of locals.
That’s interesting.
I’ll tell hubby if he has to go in to the office a whole lot to stay AWAY from people as much as possible.
I wonder what extent the company restrooms facilitated the spread (aerosolized the virus when flushed).
so, just throwing this out there, from the Korea workplace study above, 4% of asyies remain asyie at 14 days. Most of America has been officially locked down, well, the middle class restricted anyway, for over 30 days, with masks catching on in the last week or so. Are there any asyies left at this point? If so, what would be our ‘clear’ date?
I think the Brit DP patient lasted some 37 days before he double-tapped negative. How does that fit with our states’ restrictions? Another week of masking? Two?
Look at your Projection that starts on Apr 23, still spot on at 63336 for today 4/30 with the Worldometer being at 63861.
We won’t be rid of asys until we have population immunity.
People have gone grocery shopping and found virus as well. They’ve pumped gas, ditto ditto. They got pizza delivered from VirusPizzaPi. etc.
There has been a LOT of ‘leakage’ of infection during our ‘lockdown’.
If we have a second wave now that things are opening back up, let’s hope that everyone’s D3 levels are high enough that MOST of us will just sniffle a bit and feel like crap for a day or two. Hubby gets 20m+ every day during midday to try to raise his D3 over and above what the supplements do.
“… “We’ve learned that way more people, far, far more people have actually been exposed to the infection without any knowledge of it. That makes the overall death rate much lower,” said Yealy, who is UPMC’s chair of emergency medicine. “Many people just didn’t feel sick at all and recovered without difficulty.” …”
U of Pennsylvania.
good question - a seating arrangement would have been helpful even if the index case can’t be identified.
Yes to some degree, but any government run municipality etc are ‘riddled’ with self serving individuals. Unfortunatly people run for office with that in mind far more often then actualy serving the public.
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