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To: amorphous

Look at your Projection that starts on Apr 23, still spot on at 63336 for today 4/30 with the Worldometer being at 63861.


94 posted on 04/30/2020 7:47:22 PM PDT by DEPcom
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To: DEPcom
For the 23rd April projection, had an addition routine which took into account case #s. While cleaning up the entire algorithm, I messed it up and because I was in a hurry at the time, I ended up just going with just a simple growth curve mod based on the DFI delta. That it's more accurate, demonstrates the importance of including the case # index as well - so it needs that third factor for much better accuracy. Certainly for the two week period.

Thanks for noticing and bringing attention to that. On a separate issue, I've noticed an uptick in case #s over the last several days - that's not good - especially with states opening up their economies.

I think, besides our culture, America must be facing a different strain, or some other factor much of the world hasn't experienced. Exactly how or why this is, I'm not too sure of. Numbers of dead alone indicate we here in the US have it worse than other countries for unknown reasons.

Now case index is seeing an uptick.

280 posted on 05/01/2020 12:14:38 PM PDT by amorphous
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