[amorphous]

For the 23rd April projection, had an addition routine which took into account case #s. While cleaning up the entire algorithm, I messed it up and because I was in a hurry at the time, I ended up just going with just a simple growth curve mod based on the DFI delta. That it's more accurate, demonstrates the importance of including the case # index as well - so it needs that third factor for much better accuracy. Certainly for the two week period.

Thanks for noticing and bringing attention to that. On a separate issue, I've noticed an uptick in case #s over the last several days - that's not good - especially with states opening up their economies.

I think, besides our culture, America must be facing a different strain, or some other factor much of the world hasn't experienced. Exactly how or why this is, I'm not too sure of. Numbers of dead alone indicate we here in the US have it worse than other countries for unknown reasons.

Now case index is seeing an uptick.

[DEPcom]

” uptick in case #s over the last several days - that’s not good - especially with states opening up their economies.”

I have notice the uptick too. Just hope the Governors in those States watch closely then lock down when they need too.

[calenel]

“Numbers of dead alone indicate we here in the US have it worse than other countries for unknown reasons.”

Many other countries are not reporting honestly. That’s the first reason for the discrepancy. China, Iran, other authoritarian regimes saving face. Italy, Spain, Germany and many others that you would expect, in many cases, to be honest, simply are not being so.

Proportionately to population, the US is doing better than many other countries, even without honest numbers from those others.