Coronavirus: I've changed my position on something. (vanity)

self | 04/17/2020 | self

[eastexsteve]

OK. Let's get to the chase. I'm a pilot. I've been flying almost 45 years. I know many commercial pilots who work for the big carriers. Some do international flights, the Far East, Europe, etc. At least four of them now have told me they have had this crap, some as early as November of last year. High fever, bad dry cough, and body aches. They all said they were sicker than a dog. They told me they have flown boatloads of people from China and Europe to here before the travel ban. They tell me they passed it around to other pilots, crews, and their families. They all went to the doctor, and tested negative for the flu. But, back then, nobody knew what this was. Most of their kids got sick, albeit only for a few hours, and then they were fine. They went to school, passed it around, and many other kids got sick. They likely brought it home and infected their families.

During the last part of January this year, my wife and I both came down with the same thing (no doubt after being around some of my pilot friends.). We've both had flu shots. I had it for about 3 days. My wife had to go to the doctor. She tested negative for the flu, and they gave her a Z-pack. She had it for about a week. We were both sicker than I can ever remember. And, although I'm 65, I stay pretty healthy and pass a pilots medical exam as needed.

After talking to my pilot buddies again in detail, I can no longer ignore the evidence that this stuff has been here since November last year. I also can't deny that my wife and I likely had it in January. I remember us both saying that this stuff was so bad it would likely kill most older or unhealthy people.

We need widespread immediate testing on demand, and not just when we show symptoms. We need both antibody and virus tests. We will never know how safe it is, or to what degree we can go back to normal until we do. I'm currently on the hunt for an antibody test.

[teeman8r]

the chinese have some wonderful test kits available...

100 % guarantee.

this is what our WHO should be doing... not threatening the World with their population control agenda

[RobyOnekanobee]

I think i had in January with my wife and son after visiting New Orleans. Been just sick with crazy symptoms. Once they get antibody tests, this whole shut everything down will be not viewed well in how to deal with it.

[eastexsteve]

Try Christus Mother Frances in Tyler. They have developed an antibody test.

Thank you! That's only about 2 hours away. I'll look into this.

[Big Red Badger]

You dealt with it
Then,,,
Why not go Back
To Normal Now?
.
I had It as well in
November,
a Deep, unproductive
Cough that kept
Me up for 3 Nites.
I didn’t see my
Doctor.
Silly me.

[Vermont Lt]

They had the earlier flu that was running around. That flu was not caught by the vaccine this year.

The Wuhan was not out and about during that time frame.

Everyone wants to believe they were sick with this. The numbers simply don’t support it.

[ro_dreaming]

I’m all for an anti-body test, to see if I have had it - I was sicker than dog poop for about a week, but attributed it to my yearly sinusitis/sinus infection/etc. Went to the doctor, got antibiotics, a steroid shot, and I felt better within a few days.

[PerConPat]

I agree with both of you. The novel aspect of the virus is very concerning to Fauci. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is the first known novel virus to cause a pandemic, according to the CDC. And the history of the Spanish Flu pandemic has to be weighing heavily on epidemiologists, public health officials etc..

[eastexsteve]

They had the earlier flu that was running around. That flu was not caught by the vaccine this year.

They and my wife tested negative for the flu.

[CaptainPhilFan]

Agreed. Possibly longer than that, though.

I got very sick in early August.

High fever, hallucinations, wicked headache, chills, and a dry hacking cough that lingered so long I thought it might be cancer.

It was the sickest I have ever been, thought it might be pneumonia. Lasted a total of 2.5 weeks with the cough sticking around longer.

I didn’t go to a doctor.

[Aria]

On 11/20 I went to the LifeCare in Kirkland, WA that got all the publicity for the virus. The first week in December I got a sudden sore throat and the next day could not get off the couch..too sick...all I did was sleep. Next day I made it to Dr who said I had bronchitis - no fever - had cough - my lungs sounded clear - was totally worn out. I had to go to Florida in mid-December and was well enough to go but while there it hit me again but much weaker. By Christmas I was fine.

So...since I didn’t have a fever I don’t know and other freepers from Seattle area said they’d had the same thing...it was diagnosed as bronchitis.

[SgtHooper]

I also had a mild case of something in December. Congestion with blood (I could sense it from swallowing taste), mild headache, no aches, no joint pains. But gone after 4-5 days. When this all became known, I seriously wondered if...

[Swordmaker]

My lady and I are pretty certain we had it in late December and early January after a trip back to California to visit family. Fever, dry cough, aches, loss of taste/smell, etc., lasted about three weeks with exhaustion and weakness even longer.

We think we may have been exposed when we stopped for breakfast in Las Vegas at a Denny’s near McCarran Air Port where there was a large family of Chinese people at a center table right near us, with most all hacking and coughing, chattering away in Chinese. After a few minutes of the uncovered hacking and coughing, we got up and left without ordering. We were only with healthy family members at Christmas but came down with the symptoms just before New Years and cancelled our new years’ eve reservations we’d been looking forward to for months.

[Swordmaker]

Forgot to mention the headaches. . . And light sensitivity, dry eyes.

[AndyTheBear]

The age curve seems to be very steep.

Yeah, that was already known. People who are older and have contributing health problems--just as is typical of flu--are far more likely to die than those who are younger and do not have health problems.

However for every age/health demographic the death-rates are a numerator which is the number of deaths and a denominator which is the number of people infected. If that denominator is way bigger than we thought the rate is way lower than we thought--the numerator is something we have a handle on...we tend to notice people dying.

[zerosix]

I had something in December that I attributed to bronchitis due to bad cough, low lung capacity and feeling rotten everywhere. I took Zpak but wound up taking another drug afterward as Zpak didn’t touch what I had.

I’d had a flu shot in Oct. and don’t generally get one at all but have after getting sick two or three years in a row, decided to try not to have more bronchitis year after year.

Physicians assistant wanted me to come back in 6 weeks for another chest X-ray as the first one had been bad, showing lots of congestion in my left lung.

I’m not certain about running a high temperature but definitely ran one and had lots of chills for a few days. I’ll admit to barely getting out of bed for days and not even getting out of pjs and bathrobe for four to five days other than going to visit doctors office.

Don’t know if what I had was Whuflu or not, but definitely had something that knocked me off my feet for days and still have a lingering cough that’s about to finally give up.

[Steve Van Doorn]

Very nice graph though it needs to go back to mid December when the spike took place in question

[Steve Van Doorn]

You took Zpak in December? How did you know to take that?
Happy you're ok
Thanks

[amorphous]

If I had access to reliable data, I could take it back to the first know death in China. The issue is the data. Worldometers only provides today's data and yesterday's data. Data from JHU is a mess. CDC charges $6k to access their our data. If anyone knows of reliable data source, please point me in the general direction.

What you see is the data I've taken daily from worldometers since 18 March.

I'm also able to project the numbers out for about 40 days based on this same metric in the graph above (new deaths / total deaths). Accuracy isn't bad within a week or so.

I updated the projection last night. Of course, this is only the next day and naturally it's going to be even more accurate:

US final toll at COB today on worldometers.info: 37,154 vs. 37,127 projected.

New US DFI 6.82 - WAY too high! New median DFI = 7.16

[zerosix]

That’s what my PA told me to take. When that didn’t work, she prescribed something else.

Thanks.

[Steve Van Doorn]

The projection on how many would get it might be similar but the death rate is far less. Today the projection was 477,213 deaths as of 4/17/2020. The world death count for this virus is 154.256

The only thing I have for "flu like" symptoms is the CDC by states.
click on Texas (they keep good data)
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/main.html#a48