Posted on 04/08/2020 12:54:46 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
They were once the giants of American retail, strong enough to survive wars, the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the rise of online shopping. But Sears, JCPenney, and others may not be able to survive the CCP virus crisis.
“The retailers who were wandering around aimlessly pre-pandemic are going to be substantially less likely to muddle through than they were before,” said Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at the Columbia Business School.
During the pandemic, stores have been shuttered. Retailers have furloughed hundreds of thousands of employees and are losing most of their sales. And shoppers have cut back on most purchases other than groceries and daily essentials. Depending on how long consumer demand stalls, companies may be forced to lay off workers, close stores permanently, or restructure.
“Store-based retail was already struggling with internet consumption trends before coronavirus, and now will be faced with accelerated demand shifts to the internet,” Randal Konik, analyst at Jefferies, said in a note to clients last week.
Sears, JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, and J. Crew were some of the most distressed companies prior to the outbreak, according to analysts. Many were forced to close stores in the face of declining sales even as unemployment reached a 50-year low.
Now with a record number of Americans filing for jobless benefits, unemployment is likely to be elevated for months if not years to come, further cutting into Americans’ appetite and ability to shop. Sears filed for bankruptcy in 2018 and its future has been in doubt ever since.
JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, and J. Crew are burdened by crushing debt loads. They’re also at risk from declining market share, too many stores, limited online sales, and a focus on selling discretionary items, analysts say.
JCPenney had $3.7 billion in debt at the end of 2019. Although JCPenney has enough liquidity to survive for the next several months, it may face challenges refinancing its debt in the future, said David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings.
“There’s a good chance they can survive, but this is no layup,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners. “This is going to be a three-pointer deep in the corner with time running out.” JCPenney will need to drastically reduce its 850 stores, Johnson said.
JCPenney did not respond to requests for comment.
Neiman Marcus is considering filing for bankruptcy to ease its $4.3 billion debt load, Bloomberg reported last month. Neiman Marcus is “completely helpless in light of the fact that the luxury sector may not emerge quickly when the pandemic crisis is over,” said Cohen from Columbia Business School.
Neiman Marcus declined to comment.
J Crew has $1.6 billion in debt. Before the outbreak, J. Crew was planning on spinning off Madewell, its fast-growing denim brand, to help pay down a chunk of its debt. But those plans are now in jeopardy.
“The potential inability for them to IPO Madewell could lead them to a more dire restructuring,” said Silverman from Fitch Ratings.
J. Crew did not respond to requests for comment.
Fitch has also downgraded credit ratings for GNC, Party City, and Tailored Brands, the owner of Men’s Warehouse and Joseph A. Bank, in recent weeks.
The End of Sears?
Last week, Sears announced it would close all of its remaining Sears-branded stores through at least April 30 because of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus outbreak. It is keeping Kmart stores open where allowed. Many of those stores sell groceries and have pharmacies. It also furloughed most of the employees at its corporate headquarters.
But the company has been closing stores—continuously and permanently—for years. Losses of $12 billion since its last profitable year in 2010 made bankruptcy inevitable.
Store closings continued after Sears emerged from bankruptcy, suggesting that the losses at the now privately held company had continued. By the end of February it was down to 182 stores.
A company spokesman declined to comment for this story.
A second, and final, bankruptcy filing would not be unique to Sears. The retail graveyard is filled with companies that emerged from bankruptcy with plans to continue to operate but soon went out of business. Among them are Payless Shoes, Gymboree, American Apparel, and RadioShack.
If the 4 mentioned were the only casualties
GREAT
Alas. It will be many more.
True story: many moons ago, I was a salesman at Woolco. Woolco was the spin off of Woolworth's, like Kmart was the spin off of Kresge's. How they started was that the Woolworth's management was entrenched, but they had some very smart up and comers that they knew they would lose to other companies if they didn't get promoted. They let them roll with their idea for an alternative store to Woolworth's. Fast forward a few years, and Woolco is generating 80% of the corporate profits. Senior management looks at that, and says, "Nice job, boys, now we're going to take it over and show you how to position us for the long term." Fast forward a few years and Woolco was closed. The last US Woolworth's closed in 1997.
Kodak invented the digital camera in the 1970s. Management hid it because they didn't want to cannibalize film sales.
Corporate structures want to find a balance and stop innovation, and have two or three companies working as a cartel.
That's what happened to Sears.
Me, too! Pier One was always a wonderful place to browse, and I’d ALWAYS find something I didn’t need, LOL!
Their on-line presence SUCKS, though. Any time I went to order something I liked it would end up being ‘In Store Only!’
Hello? What’s the point of THAT when someone WANTS to buy something from you and has her credit card in hand? Here! Take My Money! I’m that 50+ female with cash to burn, Baby! *I* am your Metric! Just ask your Marketing Department, LOL!
Dopes.
Crate & Barrel is my new place to browse. I’ve parted with MANY of my hard-earned dollars in that store through the years. Just TRY to keep me out of their Kitchen Gadgets area, or their kitchen towels or artsy-fartsy dishes and sexy glassware!
Bet she looks worse out of them.
LOL! Priceless.
Yeah, there was a time when I shopped at Kohl’s a lot but I noticed the quality drop as well.
Even their Levi’s seemed to be thinner denim (and cheaper!) Than at other vendors.
Yes.
Larger point, though, was its not just one store chain where the quality’s gone down. Almost all of them have had quality drops in their store lines/brands they carry.
So these 4 having problems can’t blame it on that because this quality drop is basically across the board at all places.
My first serious issues with Sears was about the mid-90’s with their tool quality starting to degrade to something that rusted. What worsened was their lifetime Craftsman warranty was being withdrawn on certain tools.
They also started refurbishing batteries and lawn equipment and selling as new. I bought a garden tiller new at Sears, it broke and they had me take it to a small engine repair shop to warranty it. The mechanic showed me it had been repainted and the serial number was that of a machine made about 3 years prior.
Learning my lesson at Sears, I will not buy anything today that offers a lifetime warranty. It’s a sales gimmick that adds no value to the purchase.
I used to frequent Penneys because they had a good selection of big & tall sizes at reasonable process. Then the queer took over and they devolved to carrying crap I wouldn’t take for free, much less buy. They have never really recovered - last time I was in a JCP there was nothing I would want. Haven’t been back.
[J. Crew]
It’s what George Costanza wears!
At least, what he showed to J. Peterman.
go to muddy waters web site and pick some scummy lieing ccp cos to put on ....the sec is going to clean that up now...all c
the chinese garbage in our market
puts...puts on all CCP controled companies.....get your head straight ...and boycott this crap.
Suburban malls were destroyed by city bus service on the one hand, saturation, and of course our virtual world, the www. Macy's isn't mentioned in this article, that's weird. Four months ago or so the turnaround at Target had the investment media all a-twitter (sorry), but that's on hold now, at best. Gotta wonder about BBBeyond as well. Retailers in general (particularly conventional restaurants, that is, those which don't have drive-through) are probably going to be a dicey investment for at least a year. In the list at this link, I mentally subtracted Best Buy:
Great list! I also always recommend, ‘The Vice Fund’ because the LAST things people give up in hard times are booze, cigarettes and lottery tickets. This also has the added bonus of investing in aerospace and gun manufacturing (I think?)
Anyhow, I’ve been happy with it.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vice-fund.asp
Among those chains, only J. C. Penney has a store in my part of Kentucky. It’s in the local mall, which is now closed, of course. The nearest Sears is 25 miles away, and it’s a little store, selling only tools for home improvement and backyard work. The last Kmart closed in 2017. As far as I know, we have never had a Neiman-Marcus here. And I have never heard of J. Crew; what do they sell?
I *think* J.Crew is clothing? In fact, yeah, I think the article discusses the now-on-hold plan J. Crew had to spin off one of their in-house clothing brand names.
Nice! Thanks. I'd like to have access to the best information to help my investment decisionmaking, so I'm thinking about running for office. :^)
Their on-line presence SUCKS, though. Any time I went to order something I liked it would end up being ‘In Store Only!’
I checked their online store also. It’s pathetic.
I’m a “tablescaper”, someone who collects tons of dishes, crystal, figurines, table linens, etc. and creates elaborate “themed” tables for birthday parties, family dinners, just for fun. I actually have to rent off-site storage for all my tablescaping things, Mr. RooRoo was tired of all the closet, garage cabinet and other storage spaces I was hogging up LOL.
Pier One was one of my top places to shop for tablescaping things, especially in the spring and Easter seasons.
So now, the only reliable places I can shop that are worthwhile:
—Williams Sonoma
—Pottery Barn
—Home Goods (in-store only)
—eBay (lots of like-new vintage items, even overseas “stores)
—Amazon
—Etsy
—Replacements.com (out of production china, crystal and flatware)
—Dillards (very so-so, online is best)
—ShopHQ—best place in the world to buy new on sale Waterford Crystal, including Marquis by Waterford, and House of Waterford
I am SO SAD about the demise of Pier One!!!
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