Curve Ball: The Worst-Case COVID-19 Scenario Was Just Dramatically Cut by Modelers

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle has just revised down its COVID-19 worst-case scenarios for the country.

One of the projected next hotspots, California, is projected to need only half the ICU beds, ventilators and critical hospital equipment than originally predicted because there will be many fewer COVID-19 cases, according to IMHE. All of the state's supplies are on hand, according to the survey.

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IMHE has revised down the number of expected COVID-19 deaths from 6,100 to 1,783 in California.

The state's peak for the worst number of deaths originally was expected to be at the end of April; now it appears it will be mid-April.

The data is dependent on continued adherence to social distancing guidelines through the end of May https://t.co/hWgh0kOtcV— KTLA (@KTLA) April 7, 2020

IMHE says its constantly updated data now show fewer hospitalizations and deaths not only in California but across the country. And that's a reflection of the social distancing in effect throughout the country.

"In our latest update, we now estimate fewer total deaths (81,766) from COVID-19. On April 2, we had estimated a total of 93,531 total COVID-19 deaths, a difference of 11,765."

KTLA reports the projected number of deaths has taken a dramatic downturn.

Nationwide, the institute’s number of estimated fatalities in the U.S. dipped slightly in the past week, from 82,141 to 81,766. The range is 49,431 to 136,401; last week it was between 39,174 to 141,995.

While the modeling has been updated daily since being published, the latest numbers reveal a somewhat dramatic shift from just six days ago — the reflection of “a massive infusion of new data,” Dr. Christopher Murray, the institute’s director, said in a news release.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Murray said.

Across the U.S., there will also be less of a need for hospital and ICU beds to deal with the outbreak than earlier figures showed, according to the institute. But there will still be an estimated shortage of roughly 36,654 hospital beds, including 16,323 ICU beds.

The nation's peak of deaths from COVID-19 is expected on April 16th with a projected 3,130 deaths.

The effort everyone has made to socially distance to flatten the curve is working. We'll see if the economic devastation the country has suffered in service to this has been worth it or a historical curveball.

“Predict the worst, and when it doesn’t happen, take credit for implementing measures that stopped it.”

Well why do you just assume the worse didnt happen just because?

It’s like saying that if a house fire gets out of control the entire city could burn, but after someone called the fire department, people act like they are just “taking credit”, and the fire just put itself out.

YUP!!!! Our local FOX channel in Birmingham ran this story yesterday. They said that Alabama was going to lose FIVE THOUSAND people to the virus, the most in the nation. They said we would have thousands come down with this virus. BUT NOW, they have changed their tune. NOW, yes now, we are told that we will have WELL LESS than ONE THOUSAND!!!! Quiet the drop isn’t it? Yes, once again, the same liberal organizations have got it wrong. Like the very people who tell us that we are all going to die from climate change, YET, cannot predict the damned weather from today to tomorrow!!!!! Yesterday and the day before we were going to have 80 or 90% chance of rain. Last night it dropped to 40%. This morning it was up to 80 again. NOW, it is 40, but as I was watching, it changed to 60%. These damned people are nuts!!!!! They throw out all these numbers and people go crazy when they see them and start going crazy, buying up TOILET PAPER and bread and milk and beans and cleaning stuff. By the time this is over, our counter-tops should be totally clean and we should have the cleanest toilets and colons of any country on the planet!!! The liberal bells never stop. They ring of death and despair and what the hell do we do, we fall in march step with them and go crazy!!! Geese, Thelma and Louise, get a freaking grip America!!! Get a grip!!

Yes I saw that as well. Live near Gardendale. The press here (Birmingham) stated that we would be the next epicenter of the country (no where close). Apparently an employee at Lowes in Fultondale tested positive. They had shut down the store and reportedly “sanitized” it and then opened back up. Since then, every place I have been to for groceries has made everyone go one way into the store and then one way out.
If people think everything is going to go back to “normal” after this I have some ocean front property in Kansas I will readily sell them. It will be under the guise of “this virus is going to explode again this fall”. So they will continue this insanity and when you go to that 4th of July picnic this summer you won’t be able to have more than 2 people in the area. Continue to wear face masks, etc!!

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Trump has saved us all!