While the modeling has been updated daily since being published, the latest numbers reveal a somewhat dramatic shift from just six days ago — the reflection of “a massive infusion of new data,” Dr. Christopher Murray, the institute’s director, said in a news release.
“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Murray said.
Across the U.S., there will also be less of a need for hospital and ICU beds to deal with the outbreak than earlier figures showed, according to the institute. But there will still be an estimated shortage of roughly 36,654 hospital beds, including 16,323 ICU beds.
The nation's peak of deaths from COVID-19 is expected on April 16th with a projected 3,130 deaths.
The effort everyone has made to socially distance to flatten the curve is working. We'll see if the economic devastation the country has suffered in service to this has been worth it or a historical curveball.
There are still some in this forum who are convinced — and who are living their lives — that the initial projection of “a million or more American deaths” still holds. Very sad indeed.
Data does not resolve a flawed set of assumptions used to construct the model.
Is spread like a spilled can of paint, or is it like a shotgun pattern?
It appears that IHME has presumed a spilled paint distribution. This was not true in Wuhan/Hubei Province/Rest of China, it was not true in Bergamo/Milan/Rest of Italy, it is not true in Metro NY/New England/PA/rest of US.
Adding more data does nothing to resolve incorrect assumptions.