Curve Ball: The Worst-Case COVID-19 Scenario Was Just Dramatically Cut by Modelers

PJ Media ^ | 04/08/2020 | Victoria Taft

[SeekAndFind]

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle has just revised down its COVID-19 worst-case scenarios for the country.

One of the projected next hotspots, California, is projected to need only half the ICU beds, ventilators and critical hospital equipment than originally predicted because there will be many fewer COVID-19 cases, according to IMHE. All of the state's supplies are on hand, according to the survey.

Twitter

IMHE has revised down the number of expected COVID-19 deaths from 6,100 to 1,783 in California.

The state's peak for the worst number of deaths originally was expected to be at the end of April; now it appears it will be mid-April.

The data is dependent on continued adherence to social distancing guidelines through the end of May https://t.co/hWgh0kOtcV— KTLA (@KTLA) April 7, 2020

IMHE says its constantly updated data now show fewer hospitalizations and deaths not only in California but across the country. And that's a reflection of the social distancing in effect throughout the country.

"In our latest update, we now estimate fewer total deaths (81,766) from COVID-19. On April 2, we had estimated a total of 93,531 total COVID-19 deaths, a difference of 11,765."

KTLA reports the projected number of deaths has taken a dramatic downturn.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Yup. The priorities of the D.C. bureaucrat are:

- Avoid accountability for anything that goes wrong
- Utilize any crisis to secure increases in funding
- Find a way to shift blame or make yourself a hero if something does go wrong
- Make it to pension eligibility day with your ego and reputation intact

[Romulus]

As I recall, “curveball” was the code name of the Iraqi source whose contributions were critical in hoaxing us into the 2003 war.

[Romulus]

It’s the hurricane “cone of uncertainty”. Which we in hurricane country have learned to regard with scepticism.

[RetiredArmy]

Yup, same here. Wally World has the tape up, like the "Police Line - Do Not Cross", that you see on TV crime scenes. But, it has not been to bad as we have taken advantage of the 6 am on Tuesday for we old codgers. Except we have a large group coming out that early since we old folks are the only ones that still get up early. I totally, 1000000000000% agree that we have lost and are going to lose MORE, and MORE rights, freedoms, privileges of living in this Republic. I really think they will keep a lot of this crap in play, to PREVENT it from happening again. The SAD PART IS: stupid America will go along with it. FEW, just we Free Republic types, will argue about it and we will get labeled as criminals.

I am up at 5:20 a.m. every day. We used to get up at 4:30 before we retired. We lived in Bremerton, WA and had to cross the Puget Sound to get to work. My wife is from West Seattle. When she retired, we came back here to Calhoun County where I am from. Lots cheaper to live here. But, we always got up early. I still do. 20+ years with Uncle Sam and then having to get up early to catch that ferry boat to ride to Seattle each day to work made for very, very long commute days to and from work. But, I get up early and usually go to bed fairly early, by 8 or 8:30 at the latest. That was what we used to do back then. To bed by 9 and up at 4:30, catch the ferry at 6:15. Had to drive to the ferry parking areas, park, walk a good distance to the terminal. Then got home by 6:15 or 6:30 at night. LONG, LONG days!!!! So, 9 pm felt good to hit the rack!!! Hang Tough!!

[dennisw]

PLEASE READ-——All the super high estimates had self isolation and other drastic measures baked into them. Gateway Pundit exposed this!

SO now the lies and backtracking begin by Birks and Fauci. And I am pissed!

[dennisw]

I have been up since 515AM and am usually up earlier.

[RetiredArmy]

You an old codger also, or just had to get up early to go to work?? ;-)

[dennisw]

Codger! And as right wing as I was 30 years ago. But during my work year I had to rise at a quarter to five AM.

White collar - You shower before work
Blue Collar- You shower after work

[dennisw]

This is a another “hide the decline” BUT this time it is lie your ass off about WHY the decline.

We are about to be subjected to a non-stop lie-a-thon about why we have this Covid deaths decline in America.

[RetiredArmy]

Both my friend, both. I been getting up early since I was 18 in basic training.

[RetiredArmy]

But, I do need my afternoon nap these days!!! :-)

[Jim Noble]

Data does not resolve a flawed set of assumptions used to construct the model.

Is spread like a spilled can of paint, or is it like a shotgun pattern?

It appears that IHME has presumed a spilled paint distribution. This was not true in Wuhan/Hubei Province/Rest of China, it was not true in Bergamo/Milan/Rest of Italy, it is not true in Metro NY/New England/PA/rest of US.

Adding more data does nothing to resolve incorrect assumptions.

[dennisw]

Even Jesus took an afternoon nap. It was hot there so you did your ag work early as the was rising.

OK about Jesus I am joking and saying probably.

[RetiredArmy]

Christ, while STILL GOD while He was on this earth, He WAS, ALSO, human. Even the Scriptures says He got “tired and thirsty.” So, yes, He probably did catch a wink here and there as needed. Remember, He only rode into Jerusalem on Palm Sunday. It doesn’t mention any other donkeys, horses, carts or wagons that I remember, there could be, but I don’t remember any being mentioned. He did of course ride in boats. But, for the most part, He walked!!! So, tired was usual for all peoples in those days.