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The Curve Is Already Flat
Medium.com ^ | 4-3-20 | A.J. Kay

Posted on 04/05/2020 2:43:50 PM PDT by Valpal1

But there’s one data point being used in all of the prevailing models, including Imperial, that no one is talking about.

When did the COVID curve begin?

And it’s an important point. How can we interpret the data we currently have if we don’t know where on the time axis we actually are?

(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Education; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid19
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Here is a graph of weekly physician-reported visits for Influenza-like-illness (ILI) reported to the CDC for 2019–2020 year-to-date and for the last two flu seasons.

The graph below shows how the volume of positive seasonal flu tests per week in 2019–20 compares to previous years.

1 posted on 04/05/2020 2:43:50 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: Valpal1

Link no work, according to site.


2 posted on 04/05/2020 2:45:08 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Epstein pulled a Carradine, the bozo.)
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To: Valpal1

Error
410
This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.


3 posted on 04/05/2020 2:46:32 PM PDT by TexasGator (Z1z)
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To: Valpal1

linky brokey


4 posted on 04/05/2020 2:46:43 PM PDT by tinyowl
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To: Valpal1

I use the date of the 1st fatality within a given region minus thirteen days. That should be close (plus or minus a week).


5 posted on 04/05/2020 2:48:43 PM PDT by loucon
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To: Valpal1

The national morons look at the death toll and think it’s a daily figure. Take the daily figure and divide it by the population of that district or state and you come up with a 10,000th of one percent.


6 posted on 04/05/2020 2:49:41 PM PDT by HighSierra5
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To: SaxxonWoods; Valpal1
"410 This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules"

Social media war against the first amendment continues. The story questions the desired narrative so it must be censored.

7 posted on 04/05/2020 2:50:40 PM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: Valpal1

Medium censors another article that doesn’t toe the line.

They’ve done it a few times lately. Always contrarian to sky-is-falling.


8 posted on 04/05/2020 2:51:02 PM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables (Unredact the 99 page Collyer Report!!!)
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To: loucon

I wonder when we really had the first exposure to COVID-19 in the CONUS?


9 posted on 04/05/2020 2:51:32 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: Valpal1

They pulled it. Just like they did with Aaron Ginn’s article weeks ago.


10 posted on 04/05/2020 2:52:05 PM PDT by The Pack Knight
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To: Valpal1

Physician visits? The curve were all focused on is the infection curve.


11 posted on 04/05/2020 2:54:02 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Valpal1

Posted a couple of days ago.

‘All our ICU patients are in their 50s or younger’ - frontline Welsh doctor recovered from virus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4


12 posted on 04/05/2020 2:54:29 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: SaxxonWoods

Wow, that was fast. I also got this message... Hrm.
The Wayback Machine has not archived that URL.

Seriously, that was a very reasoned article with excellent footnotes.


13 posted on 04/05/2020 2:54:48 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: Valpal1

Re being pulled: unless it’s copyrighted, post it in full here with exact title and author’s credit.

Search engines will find it, author will get his/her readership, FR will get more hits.


14 posted on 04/05/2020 2:54:54 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: Valpal1

Here is what is behind every thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwMLMXV6mcU


15 posted on 04/05/2020 2:56:05 PM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: CatOwner

Here in Louisiana, We had to cancel Christmas parties because everyone was so sick with flu-like symptoms. Who knows?


16 posted on 04/05/2020 2:56:12 PM PDT by loucon
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To: Valpal1

Three days ago.

New York City doctor: ‘The things that I see in the ER are scary’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGnxNsKtkjI


17 posted on 04/05/2020 2:56:40 PM PDT by familyop ("Welcome to Costco. I love you." - -Costco greeter in the movie, "Idiocracy")
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To: Brilliant

erm... if you look at the difference between the two charts, visits versus positive flu results, it is pretty clear people were going to the doctor with flu-like symptoms but their tests were negative for influenza and something else was causing the symptoms.

What if Covid was already here back then. It changes the assumptions substantially.


18 posted on 04/05/2020 2:59:29 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: loucon
Here in Louisiana, We had to cancel Christmas parties because everyone was so sick with flu-like symptoms. Who knows?

That's why I wonder. The CDC makes it sounds like it was late in January 2020, but from many indications, it might have been in December. Our kid knew someone from work who was seriously ill (looking back, all of his symptoms were classic COVID-19, especially the difficulty breathing part). He had traveled from the western part of the US to Texas several days before Christmas. Based on the CDC's timeline, that would have been too early.

19 posted on 04/05/2020 3:00:30 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: tomkat

I am really sorry I didn’t do that now. I had no idea Medium was/is completely untrustworthy on the free exchange of ideas.


20 posted on 04/05/2020 3:01:20 PM PDT by Valpal1
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