Posted on 04/05/2020 10:57:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In Sweden, an interesting experiment is playing out, which may soon reveal that Britain is way off when it comes to modelling the number of coronavirus patients who will end up in intensive care.
The country has bucked the near-global lockdown trend, choosing to allow schools, businesses and sports venues to remain open and relying on the good sense of its citizens to control the virus through social distancing and maintaining good hygiene
But the country has chosen this path largely because its prediction of how its health service will cope is vastly different from the trajectory that British modellers have forecast.
The vast ramping up of intensive care beds in the UK in recent weeks was driven by modelling from Imperial College, which suggested up to 30 per cent of people who are hospitalised for coronavirus will need intensive care....
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Agreed. The better way to approach this is to open up the economy and get to herd immunity faster. We are at best delaying the inevitable or at worst creating a more deadly scenario.
every death as the virus
like we are here.
In any case, places like NYC have a typical 202 deaths per day, and have averaged over 260 deaths per day just from the Coronavirus.
every death as the virus
like we are here.
In any case, places like NYC have a typical 202 deaths per day, and have averaged over 260 deaths per day just from the Coronavirus since Monday’s report.
I should have noted my COVID-19 data came WorldMeter
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Where is your data from?
I also realized I used an old pop figure for the US. We have 5 million more people at 328.2 million. It only change the case # from 0.1018% to 1.001%.
We HAVE to count every death as WuFlu so Fauxci can save face
Those figures you mentioned are people who have been TESTED.
How widespread are their testing?
No, I deleted the testing columns.
Those WorldoMeter figures tell us that China has only 30 new cases nationwide and just a little over 81,000 cases since the outbreak.
You believe those figures?
Outside China and Iran, it is the best available worldwide data. I am only doing analysis on what I have access to. You can trust or not trust the underlying data, but based on that data, those are the percentages.
My source is the Johns Hopkins site.
If you look at the like data, it is essentially the same as yours. I’ve been pulling it at about 10 PM, so some of the breaks are slightly different, and mine ends yesterday vs yours today, but the trend is the same, and the deaths/case is within 0.09%
Have any FReepers purposely sought to become infected because they believe it is just like the flu? Just wondering how it worked out. Would they recommend it or do it again? Or was the sickness worse than expected? I hear FReepers saying we need to pursue herd immunity, but never heard of any one of them trying to get infected, like we do with chickenpox.
One reason it’ll probably work, is because Sweden is still a pretty homogenous country (excluding the “Asian youths”).
Those WorldoMeter figures tell us that China has only 30 new cases nationwide and just a little over 81,000 cases since the outbreak.
You believe those figures?
Pursuing herd immunity doesn’t necessarily mean trying to intentionally get a disease. That is foolish. What it means is we go about our daily lives and when the population reaches 40-70% infection rate the epidemic will pass. I’m not trying to get it, but I’m not going to avoid life. Fortunately I live where that is reasonably possible still. I have two elderly family members that have had it. It was a bad 2 week flu, but they’ve both said they’ve been much sicker from food poisoning. The cure is worse than the disease has never been more apt.
Countries need to make decisions based on their own culture and demographics. Sweden isn't taking "no action". They have cancelled public events, banned gatherings of 50 or more and closed some schools in an effort to "flatten the curve". With every country around Sweden closing its borders, Sweden's borders are effectively closed, along with restricting travel from countries outside the EEA. They are preparing to increase restrictions, as infections are growing faster than acceptable. They are telling their citizens to act responsibly and tightening restrictions when they don't. I suspect at some point, they will get much more aggressive in Stockholm, while allowing other areas more freedom. This might work in some parts of the USA, but would fail in many areas, particularly in cities. Actively managing an epidemic in a country of 10 Million is not the same as in one of 330 Million.
I’m going by these numbers.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
They don’t trend like other EU countries. I’d have thought that their system would be overwhelmed by now.
Some studies have it traveling 27 feet, lasting in the air for three hours
Those are essentially the same as my figures. What are you comparing them to to figure that they are a lower rate of death?
My assumption is that if they’ve been basically doing nothing to combat it, why are they not already in a full blown disaster? Why would their curve be behind everyone else?
...now I’m looking at some other factors. Yes, their death rate per 1M people isn’t particularly low (although much lower than Spain, Italy, France). I was expecting greater death counts but I didn’t realize there’s only 10M people in the country that is actually larger (in Sq. miles) than I realized. Not very densely populated. Even Stockholm has just shy of 1M people.
Their survival of the fittest fantasy would be even less appealing to them, if they knew about COVID-19 with respect to obesity.
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