Posted on 04/04/2020 1:24:50 AM PDT by Enlightened1
Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, took a serious look at the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) Coronavirus model and called it “garbage.” Davis makes his case through a series of tweets (below).
Davis found that the actual numbers of hospitalizations on April 1 were a fraction of the numbers projected by the IHME model. The problem with the model, he discovered, is that it uses New York and New Jersey data and applies it to the rest of the states.
The actual numbers range from a low of 9% in Tennessee of the projection to a high of 50% in Virginia. Here are some examples:
The model projected that over 121,000 people would be hospitalized in the country yesterday. The actual number was 31,142. (25.7%)
Texas: Projection – 1,716; Actual – 196 (11.4%)
Georgia: Projection – 2,777; Actual – 952 (34.3%)
Virginia: Projection – 607; Actual – 305 (50%)
Tennessee: Projection – 2,214; Actual number – 200 (9%)
New York: Projection – 50,962; Actual number – 18,368 (36%)
Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
If the actual numbers come in far lower than what has been estimated, Trump will look like hero.
Ping
Laura Ingraham has showed the failure of this model on her last two programs.
there are people, including Fauci, who are determined to hype the reality. surely he should be the one to acknowledge this.
The reporter from OANN needs to start asking Fauci some very pointed questions in these pressers.
FYI.
Thought this might be of interest.
Kinda validates your data
Sort of reminds me of the data models used to force the climate change/global warming/global cooling farce on all of us in a vain attempt to get us to agree to pay more taxes.
JoMa
Hamilton Co. TN near me has a similar population as yours and has had around 68 infections. All 68 originated from one person from what I read today. I think 3 have died and all were over 65.
My County, McMinn, has around 52,000 people and has had 3 infections with no deaths. All three were in the same family, only had mild symptoms, and were over it in two weeks.
Our infections in the state are around 3,000, around 300 hospitalizations, and 37 deaths, in the whole state. Nashville and Memphis have the most, naturally, but the Nashville area only had a total of 6 deaths as of yesterday. I’m sure those numbers will jump today. A lot of the deaths were from nursing homes from what I hear and a 5 year old girl in Bradley Co.
Thank God the truth is starting to come out. I sincerely hope it strengthens Trump to end this charade
God bless you, Sancho, for some measure of sanity.
“We don’t even have enough supply to treat people on an outpatient basis if it did work.”
India just ordered 100 million doses of the malaria medicine. I guess they think it works.
When do we order 100 million doses?
The process where they bump single places against a aggregate model, to show that the model is flawed, is a flawed process.
*Cough*globull warming*Cough*
Yesterday some reporter FINALLY cornered Birx on whether we would see the raw data behind these models. She seemed caught off guard and then said they’d make it available. The hustle may be coming to an end.
Does this mean 1 out of 7 New Yorkers won’t get COVID-17?
Buckeye McFrog wrote:
“Yesterday some reporter FINALLY cornered Birx on whether we would see the raw data behind these models. She seemed caught off guard and then said they’d make it available. The hustle may be coming to an end.”
Good that the question got asked!
That’s a 0.01 infection rate with no death. Am I missing something?
If you use Italy as an example and take their death/1M people and extrapolate it to here it shows a total death count of a little over 83,000 not 250,000. I believe Italy is considered the worse case scenario so your simple model would seem to be way off
Or he’ll like a fool - watch the MSM start to spin the new talking points.
*look like
It’s time for Sanity to SPEAK UP
The trend is your friend.
However.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst is still the way to go, in my opinion. This is no time to lighten up.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.