Flubros day 14! (Flubros/bras only)

Www.freerepublic.com ^ | 3 April 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

It’s just the flu, bro.

A few discussion points for today:

1.The scientific findings of HSD (health-differentiated social distancing) which were discussed in yesterday’s thread. To summarize - stop the social distancing/lockdown for the young and healthy - in fact the quicker they get infected the better, for purposes of developing herd immunity to protect the old.

2. Death count is overstated: As a fellow Flubro told me yesterday - people are dying WITH Coronavirus and not FROM Coronavirus. That is why the right hand side of the “curve” will be inflated relative to a normal viral spread “curve”.

3. Governments will use this to get more control over us - (see number 2 above - continuing a fake ongoing crisis is essential).

[FlipWilson]

One thing is for sure an increasing chorus of voices is starting to question the wisdom of LOCKDOWN nation.

Even Tucker Carlson is now on board with questioning this. Why?

Because the democrats and media are no longer pretending what their agenda is. They are now openly saying that this is an opportunity to restructure us to a socialist nation.

Also, I am thinking about starting another thread in FR. One for Serfbros and Serfbros only. You know, those who say: “we aren’t going to be serfs bro.”

By the way, watch Tucker tonight. He is finally questioning the wisdom of this. He is having a guest on who has religiously tracked the projections v. the real data. I am looking forward to it.

[jstolzen]

Well, glad to hear that YOUR hospitals are not overflowing, but OURS are.

[Codeflier]

Simple: By stopping the madness and reopening society.

[FlipWilson]

I love the “flattening the curve” goal.

First, it is a moving goalpost. Every curve has an amplitude. What was the amplitude of this curve supposed to be? I’d we don’t know, then how do we know if it is flattening? There is no such thing as a flat curve. That is called a line. So what the hell was the max of this curve supposed to be?

And therein lies the rub. We must trust their ever changing projections and estimates. And they are ever hanging.

[impimp]

Thousands of hospitals in the USA...if yours is overflowing it is an exception. Hospitals from time to time are at capacity under normal circumstances...no need to oanic.

[exDemMom]

Do we see any evidence that we are, in fact, “flattening the curve”?

I have been keeping track daily of case numbers. So here is the graph with today's numbers:

Covid-19 as of 07:10 AM EDT, 4/3/2020.

Each bar represents roughly 24 hours, but can vary by up to 2 hours. The trendlines show that the growth continues to be exponential, with the curve-fit R squared value showing an almost perfect match between theoretical case number and actual values. The mortality rate as of today is 5.25%, and has room to continue to grow since 73.5% of the cases are still active and death occurs 2-8 weeks after infection.

This second graph shows the daily change in case, death, and recovery counts.

Daily count change.

I have not done any analysis on this data. The daily changes in case counts bounce around significantly, which I attribute to decreases in weekend testing being made up for at the beginning of the work week. The trendline only shows that the daily case count is still increasing. This is the curve that we need to flatten; on this graph, a flattening would show in a decreased slope of the line. Which, as I said, I have not analyzed across time to see if the slope is, in fact, shallower.

I'm sure that my former epidemiologist colleagues have much better graphs!

[SisterK]

good video

[ClearCase_guy]

Thanks. Interesting info.

[zeestephen]

What state are you in?

I’d like to review those numbers myself.

Thanks.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Don’t know if you caught yesterday’s Trump press conference.

Towards the end when Dr. Birx was doing her daily curve breakdown she expressed “disappointment” over our level of social distancing.

I could see right away on Trump’s face that he was livid. He interrupted and redirected. I am sure she got her knuckles rapped backstage when it was over.

You do NOT come out and express “disappointment” when everyone around you is doing their level best to encourage the nation and cheer them on in doing something very difficult. She is a stats geek and at times appears to be clueless about how her messaging is coming across.

[KMG365]

Question for fellow flu bros. Why does every public official have a sign language interpreter present when they speak? First of all, are there really that many deaf people? Secondly, this is not 1970; every TV today has closed captioning.

Maybe it is because they are on the govt payroll and they have to put them to use at some point?

[Sicon]

Your mortality rates are meaningless, because you don’t know (and can’t possibly know) the number of people who have, or have had, the virus. Given that lots and lots of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 had little or no symptoms, and even those who did AND had comorbidities (e.g. 63-year old diabetic, Tom Hanks), recovered just fine, “Known cases” is a useless number for the purpose of determining the CFR. The actual number of people who have or have had COVID-19 could easily be 5 or 10 times the “Known cases.” That would drop the CFR to a fraction of what you’re claiming.

It’s not a hard concept.

Face palm away.

[tatown]

I’m with you and have been sounding the economic fallout alarm for weeks. The scenario we are in is exactly the scenario that the fearporn crowd asked for. They stupidly trumpeted the Democrat/media BS hysteria and now we get 20 - 60 million jobless, 10+ trillion in fed spending, and an economy not friendly to a DJT re-election.

We need to restart this economy immediately, not May 1. The big problem Trump has created for himself is by embracing the fraudulent propaganda death projections rolled out by Fauci/Birx, Democrat governors will use those as an excuse to delay opening up their states for as long as possible which will kill any real chance of a strong recovery. They will simply say “it’s reckless to restart too soon”. Fauci will agree and the media will throw up a Trump death ticker on the upper right corner of the TV. The situation is dire from an economy standpoint but I’m hopeful that DJT has a trick or two up his sleeve to keep this as only a recession.

[Sicon]

It’s so bad here that they are building field hospitals in Convention Centers and University dorms.

Building them is one thing. Filling them with actual patients is another... You say your hospitals are “slammed”, and then point to the construction of “field hospitals” as evidence. Where’s the data from the hospitals? How many patients? How many beds? What is the normal % of occupied beds, and what is it now? For some reason, that sort of relevant information is never provided, it’s always “We may need...”, “We could see...”, etc.

[impimp]

No...it is a a compromise to get everything in this country running again. My preference is no social distancing. But I can agree to voluntary social distancing for the old and sick.

[cweese]

"Perhaps the MSM will Spin on a Dime, when it’s not the Epoch Disease they’ve hysterically promoted, and accuse DJT as the one who over-reacted"

Good point. I saw a glimmer of that this morning on the daily mail site. They were saying something along the lines of 'total death count might not exceed 100k, and TRUMP'S White House estimate of 240k seems to be overblown...'. They will definitely try to paint him as THE one who brought the world's economy down when this hysteria settles down.

[BBQToadRibs]

Map for your enjoyment.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3831301/posts

[vespa300]

“Look at South Korea, and other countries with widespread testing...mortality is very low. It always appears too high if there is not a lot of testing. It’s just the flu, bro.”

I’m just throwing this out there, would it be funnier if it was “brah” instead of “bro”? Like the Hawaiians and or Samoans say? Don’t they say “brah” instead of “bro”?

It’s just the flu brah? Well, something like that.

[impimp]

I am just copying the exact text that a Fearper used weeks ago when he mocked me for my cavalier attitude about the Corona.

[OrioleFan]

How are you going to get the young and healthy to separate from the older people?

For some reason Logan's Run comes to mind...