Posted on 04/03/2020 4:29:39 AM PDT by impimp
It’s just the flu, bro.
A few discussion points for today:
1.The scientific findings of HSD (health-differentiated social distancing) which were discussed in yesterday’s thread. To summarize - stop the social distancing/lockdown for the young and healthy - in fact the quicker they get infected the better, for purposes of developing herd immunity to protect the old.
2. Death count is overstated: As a fellow Flubro told me yesterday - people are dying WITH Coronavirus and not FROM Coronavirus. That is why the right hand side of the “curve” will be inflated relative to a normal viral spread “curve”.
3. Governments will use this to get more control over us - (see number 2 above - continuing a fake ongoing crisis is essential).
A few discussion points for today:
1.The scientific findings of HSD (health-differentiated social distancing) which were discussed in yesterday’s thread. To summarize - stop the social distancing/lockdown for the young and healthy - in fact the quicker they get infected the better, for purposes of developing herd immunity to protect the old.
2. Death count is overstated: As a fellow Flubro told me yesterday - people are dying WITH Coronavirus and not FROM Coronavirus. That is why the right hand side of the “curve” will be inflated relative to a normal viral spread “curve”.
3. Governments will use this to get more control over us - (see number 2 above - continuing a fake ongoing crisis is essential).
Do we see any evidence that we are, in fact, “flattening the curve”? It’s impossible to know what the charts would look like if we were not self-isolating, but I’m not sure I see the flattening we were hoping for. But perhaps I interpret charts poorly.
It’s very likely that reported death rates for causes other than Covid19 are dropping...they are not really dropping it is just that the deaths are being wrongly attributed to Covid19.
The statistics are wildly in error IMO.
1) How are you going to get the young and healthy to separate from the older people? A lot of the times they are in the same households. Or the older people need checking on. Even though young people recover, they still account for a lot of hospitalizations. Before you try to expose the 70% of Americans needed for herd mentality, make sure you’re not going to override the health care system.
2) The US Case mortality rate is now nearing 3% (2.7%). I know, yall don’t believe the case count. But the “known case count” is what it is. Where are the data backed estimations of the unknown case count. Until antibody testing is done, extrapolating annecdotal stores into mass uncounted case’s is just wishful thinking.
3) Most governments will be more than happy to return to normal for the tax revenues. Hard to fund personal pork projects in a lock down. But there are some cases where we need to look at strengthening protections. Use of cell phone data to track activity, and restrictions that were attempted that have no infection control basis arfe two such examples.
Not a flu bro. Not even close.
Post your responses to impimp not me. My arm is tired from facepalming.
Not sure I follow..
Someone with a co-morbidity (say, heart disease or diabetes) that they are managing all fine and well gets CV19 and it “pushes them over the edge” to the point they die.
We shouldn’t be “counting” that as death from CV19?
To me, that seems like “how to lie with statistics”. The person would not have died if they did not catch CV19. Quite some games being played (and I’m sure not just by the USA), it would appear..
I guess there could be two “curves” or more curves, all with the same shape. One for infections and one for hospitalizations and one for deaths. The main thing to flatten, supposedly, is the hospitalizations so that they are under the capacity of the medical system. It is a difficult thing to manage but I think we flattened so that we are way under the hospital capacity in the USA - a goal that could have been accomplished by social distancing for the sick and old instead of everyone.
If someone has terminal stage 4 cancer the cause of death should NOT be Covid, especially if that person is asymptomatic. Most people have no symptoms...but they will be listed as cause of death Covid.
Look at South Korea, and other countries with widespread testing...mortality is very low. It always appears too high if there is not a lot of testing. It’s just the flu, bro.
In my state, we have over 10,000 confirmed cases - and SIXTY PERCENT of them are UNDER AGE 60. (I’m not estimating or rounding that # - that’s the actual percentage from our State Health Department).
41% of deaths here to this point are under age 70. But, as mentioned - it’s not just the deaths that are the problem. Our hospitals are totally over-run to the point there are “field hospitals” being built at our Universities and convention centers to handle all the cases that need hospitalization.
Then, what about all the non-hospitalized cases? Are the infected but not hospitalized supposed to just wander through society, infecting thousands of others until pretty much the whole damned country is infected?
And who ARE the ones that are supposedly so safe from this? EVERYONE can get it. Sure, you have a better (maybe 50, 60% if under age 50) chance of not dying, but your odds of needing hospitalization or being really, really, REALLY sick are still quite high. Fauci himself estimated early on (and said it while standing next to Pence and Trump) that “15-20, 20-something percent of ALL CASES will require ‘significant medical intervention’ including hospitalization”..ALL CASES.
So, how do we “isolate ‘just’ the vulnerable” again?
South Korea is now 174 deaths to 10,062 known cases. So their case mortality rate has risen to 1.7%. Or 17 times more lethal than the flu.
S.Korea CMR was 0.8% a few weeks ago, but deaths are a lagging indicator. Same think happened in NY. NY was 0.6% and some flubros were using that as support for their “just the flu” mantra. NY is now 2.7%.
I hope treatments drive those rate to 0.0%. But until then, the take home is “This is NOT just the flu bro.”
Most of those “cases” are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. One person’s cold is not a crisis.
Regular cold or flu will push these cases “over the edge”, that is the true crux of the matter.
Well, not sure about other states, but OUR hospital systems are slammed and over-flowing.
It’s so bad here that they are building field hospitals in Convention Centers and University dorms.
We may just be ahead of the curve, as I believe both Birx and Fauci have both tried to set expectations that what we, NY and other hot spots are experiencing will happen in most every other state.
Only time will tell, but I don’t see how other states WON’T experience the same exact thing we are.
Deaths from Covid19 in NYC
3-28 222
3-29 104
3-30 136
3-31 182
4-1 278
4-2 188
53,006 people died in NYC in 2014, about 158 per day
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/New-York-City-Leading-Causes-of-Death/jb7j-dtam
Another rough estimate for number of deaths in NYC every year,
from Quora - 1 death every 9 minutes, 158 per day, 57,000 per year
https://www.quora.com/How-many-people-die-in-New-York-every-day
188 people died of CV yesterday in NYC, 278 Wednesday. Normally only 158 people die from all causes. So even if all the 158 other deaths were positive for CV, and the evil Drs. Mengele in Mt. Sinai and Bellevue, part of the vicious left-wing conspiracy to take away your freedom, decided to blame all those skateboard deaths on CV... there are still 30 extra deaths right? Where are they coming from, every day for 6 days in a row? Did all the 158 normal deaths test positive for CV, meaning that everyone in NY is infected with a disease that has a 1% death rate? That would be 100,000 dead in NYC alone, and 3mm in the country. Not seasonal flu, “bro”
I discussed this - the right hand side of the curve is inflated. People are dying with corona and not from corona. The death counts will be inflated from now on.
What if the stage 4 cancer person would have lived another 2-5 years if they hadn’t contracted CV19?
Of course, no-one knows how long that person would have lived.
But, if CV19 is what pushed them over the edge to the point they died, it would seem the “right” cause of death would be CV19 - not cancer.
Another overlooked fact is that over 50% of American adults have hypertension. And that's just one co-morbidity factor. I think I'm in pretty good health for my age. I'm not quite 60. But Overweight, diabetes, hypertension, allergies. I've got 4!!!.
Not sure how many American adults under 60 have co-morbidity factors, but I bet it's more than a few.
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