Flubros - It’s just the flu, bro! Day 11 daily thread (only Flubros/bras allowed)

vanity | 30 March 2020 | Impimp

[impimp]

The American death rate will be far lower than the Italian and Spanish death rates - even with falsely attributing deaths of people with severe preconditions to Corona. Expensive drug cocktails recommended by Trump are helping many people. This will wind up being approximately as deadly as the h1n1 flu of a decade ago. Fauci is wrong to say 100-200k will die.

My concern is for the greater harm this shutdown will have on the economic lives of people and for the loss of constitutional rights. Hoping for an Easter end to this lockdown - end of April is excessive.

[IrishBrigade]

‘shouldn’t be demeaning each other over it.’

well, yes...

[CodeJockey]

Watched it but could not determine if he was saying high blood pressure itself or the ace inhibitor meds used to treat it were causing illness.

Either way, that is at odds with what the CDC says. They don’t mention high blood pressure at all as a rick factor.

But then again, doesn’t appear to be a consensus on any aspect of this virus.

https://youtu.be/reNgBHs8B-k?t=13

[chris37]

Haha! Excellent.

I’m about 25 miles east of Pensacola, FL, so my town is not anything near a big city, but it’s big enough.

I’m very glad to be here, because I used to be in New Orleans.

[miss marmelstein]

I have family in Manhattan right now. None of them are dead. But fearpers are hoping...

[SanchoP]

You’ve really got the ‘rat strategy down pat dontcha.

[Texas Fossil]

Financial Times is a leftist globalist propaganda rag.

Figures never lie, Liars figure.

None of the data projected by any source is truly representative to the reality of the expansion and deaths from this virus.

We are in a huge propaganda war with the media.

Yes, the deaths are real. BUT how many of them would have happened without the virus? How many cases are undetected because of no symptoms.

The data presented by a few sources may be reflective, but none available are accurate. Careful from conclusion you draw from them.

---

How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear
https://spectator.us/deadly-coronavirus-still-far-clear-covid-19/

FR Comment: https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3829233/posts

[dynoman]

Where/when did she say that?

Dr Fauchi said it “could be” 100k-200k.

[CodeJockey]

Just imagine how many more people would be infected and die from the good ole plain vanilla flu if it were not for the flu vaccine.

Sometimes we overlook that fact.

[Hiddigeigei]

When people sound off on some topic, I usually give some credence to their opinion if they state their qualifications or background in the field discussed.

[jpsb]

Yeah, I’m pretty well stocked up so I am just going to stay at home since I’m in a high risk group (over 65). I have a small stash of N95 masks if I have to leave the compound. I had a 2 boxes of masks but I gave them to a local clinic that badly needed the N95s. I kept a few for me, glad I did. Texas is not doing much testing so there is no telling how many in Galveston county are infected. Masks are the only real protection one has. Masks and rubbing alcohol.

[Spruce]

This thing has not even started yet.

The numbers of possible deaths being relayed by the two experts during the President’s briefing yesterday are pretty damn sobering.

And it is just getting started.

Whether this bug is a wimp, or a cataclysm remain to be seen.

Because it is just getting started.

[semantic]

Matt, it's a hopeless case trying to explain the basic math. Above your post is someone comparing CV mortality to "cases" - a gross overstatement. But, not to be outdone, below your post someone is once again confusing a series pattern with per capita totals.

Where does one even begin? Since I'm a sucker for punishment, I'm going to try one more time. Here goes:

1. Exponential math involves a series progression ie 2-4-8-16-> Regardless of population, all epidemiology models utilize this function. Therefore, each initial series (by country) will appear very similar. Hence Matt's graph. Since CV has around a 7-14 day incubation before symptoms, individual country prevention/mitigation results won't appear until approx 3-4 weeks out. That is 1-2 weeks of dallying, denying, ignoring vs achtung out of the box, then everyone/most jump on the achtung wagon, but it will take another 7-14 days for any effects to appear.

2. "Cases" represents testing; not disease incidence. If you were clever, you could massage cases to form some kind of assumptions about statistical randomness. Once that had been performed, then you would have a valid sample size in which to project total outcomes. I'm assuming that's what Trump's team did. They of course are projecting for the total population - cases doesn't get you there by itself, but the Trump team would need something to represent a valid stat sample size (typically, around 1k).

3. Per capita doesn't mean anything in the short term for a couple of reasons. See #1 why - the series grows in similar patterns regardless of population size. Once controls/mitigation is in place, then per capita becomes an important measure of effectiveness. Second point, total population levels only represent saturation/threshold levels. That means a 5m country will grow at the same rate as a 500m country, all things being equal. The only difference is that the 5m country will reach saturation around 3m (60%), whereas the 500m country will be 300m.

[CodeJockey]

The CDC is on record not recommending masks in terms of protection from the virus, but helping mitigate the spread if one is contagious. ?

[JonPreston]

Supporting president Trump in this war isn’t a ‘rat strategy, nor is asking a grown man to calm down and stop acting like an old washwoman.

[PIF]

Even though our business is declared non essential our supervisors will not OK using the virus unemployment and must use regular 8 week one - sound highly illegal to me.

[Grampa Dave]

Enjoy, how to make your own mask. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy59oQArwXI

[semantic]

I've never understood these two warring camps basing their arguments almost entirely on competing emotional states of mind. Throw in some math stats, and each side cherry picks small pieces to validate their particular belief system.

Fearmongers try to compare mortality to "cases" to derive a high 2-3% ratio. Flubros try to use total population vs fatalities to drive the per capita ratio to insignificance. Both of course are wrong. The only valid means of testing growth projections and estimated total fatalities is by comparing *actual infections* - at specific points in time - to resolution (recovery/death).

Anybody recognize the problem? Yep, it's impossible to know the actual levels of infection - either today, 5 days ago, or 5 days from now (no, cases doesn't provide that information). So, lacking that information, you would need to estimate it based on statistically valid sample sizes - typically around 1,000. Now, how are gonna do that?

Answer - you ain't gonna do that. You think the gov't is going to randomly select 1k people each day from around the country, come to the door and demand a sample? LOL But with some sophisticated math, and a lot of massaging, you might very well be able to back into a sample size from the actual number of cases.

And that, my dear readers, is exactly what Birx, Fauci and team have done. They have a very high level of confidence based on US history going back 2-3 weeks. 2 weeks ago (at the time of the emergency order) it was still a WAG, but now they're acting like they know the number. They are so confident in this target that they convinced Trump to keep the country shut down for another 4 weeks. That's takes a very high degree of certainty. And that only comes from having an excellent picture of the battlefield.

So, what are the projected outcomes? You heard Trump summarize: peak day April 15 (around 15k daily deaths), aspiration total 150k deaths. Once you have that number, then everything else essentially becomes noise. Forget the other countries, forget the alarming number of "cases" reported. Just track actual fatality to the chart below.

(Multiply cum total x3)

[silverleaf]

https://youtu.be/4J0d59dd-qM

30 minute lecture on how covid kills

[cuban leaf]

Yes. I already watched and even commented on sections including time stamps. It’s useful information but, truth be told, what I already knew several weeks ago.There was some new information or added nuances though.

[AndyJackson]

Exactly. It's called the central limit theorem in statistics. So long as you take a valid representative sample - and not say pick people who will answer the phone to conclude Hillary will win in a landslide - you will with small numbers get very close to the numbers you get in a large sample.