Posted on 03/27/2020 2:17:28 PM PDT by BereanBrain
Ok, now prepare yourselves as this will NO DOUBT be on the news tonite.
The CDC just issued new preliminary death, hospitalization, and illness numbers for the virus sweeping the country and taking citizens in it's deathly wake.
The OFFICIAL numbers for the season are (estimated) 38-52 Million Ill with the Virus 18-26 Million will need medical visits up to 730,000 will NEED Hospitalization And UP TO 24,000 to 62,000 will die of the virus or related causes due to the virus.
Here is the LINK https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Oh, wait - those are the numbers for the regular old Flue from LAST YEAR.
Now, don't you see how out-of-control this whole hyped coronavirus situation is? Yes, its a virus and people have died. But a MINISCULE amount compared to who dies last year from the regular FLU.
Oh, the new breathlessly says up to 500,000 may be hospitalized with the coronavirus - hey, 700,000 were hospitalized last year from regular flu and we handled it with no problem.
What a bunch of gullible idiots we all are.
"Closed Cases
159,499 Cases which had an outcome:
132,520 (83%) Recovered / Discharged
26,979 (17%) Deaths"
The fatality rate is not deaths / total cases x 100% = 4.5%.
A person who gets Covid-19 either dies or recovers. Total cases include the majority who have not recovered or died.
So the death rate is: Deaths / ( Deaths + Recovered ) x 100% = 17%
Which is shown on the link.
Well played, Berean!
“So you extrapolated, and extrapolations mean about ...nothing really.”
How much money did you expect to make this year before all this? How about now? If extrapolations mean nothing, you shouldn’t be upset if that second number is less than the first one. Oh, and don’t bother checking traffic before crossing the street because extrapolating the position of that bus during your traversal means about... nothing, really.
I explained my assumptions, which were generous in favor of the FluBro beliefs. The one we are still, for some reason, quibbling over, is that fewer than 1% of Americans have been exposed. It is secondary to my argument. Would 2% or 5% or 10% or 20% make you happier? Or 100%? Pick one and logic it out for us.
By the way, I have a long time doctor friend (45+ years of practice) who is in the middle of the containment/mitigation effort. He says that we’re getting about 10% positives from the testing. By that argument, only bout 1 million have been exposed. But most of the testing is in the hotspots and large portions of the rest of the country were not yet exposed (this was prior to exodus-NYC). So pick a number. Mine was generous.
It’s way too early to tell, but likely all the stay at home orders, social distancing, HAND WASHING, etc has likely saved more lives from Influenza B (specifically the Victoria strain) than have been lost in the US to COVID-19.
That’s a pretty impressive thing, as another 20,000 were expected to likely die from influenza this season, and those numbers are now shrinking to likely 5,000 - with 15,000 lives saved.
That’s some big deal there.
FluBros or not, our nation’s change in habits have saved quite a number of lives so far. Will that continue? I doubt it, I expect COVID-19 to make a roaring return. I wouldn’t even want to hazard a guess how many will die in the next year.
So let’s do the same for Coronavirus.
It doesn’t really have a season. It might slow down in summer but reports out of nations in the equatorial zone which are already warn cast doubt on that.
This is thought to spread 3 times easier than flu. but let’s go conservative and say that CV won’t infect any more people this year than flu did. So we will keep the 38-52 million ill and 18-26 million needing medical visits and thus confirmed cases.
So far 15% of confirmed CV cases require hospitalization. That’ will be 2.7 million hospitalizations compared to 730,000 for the flu. With a 2 to 3 week hospitalization length of stay for CV and maybe a week for the flu. That means almost 8 times as many hospital days as the flu. (4 times as many hospitalizations * 2 times Length of Stay).
And if the 1% die holds, Then confirmed cases * 1% = 180,000 to 260,000 deaths. That’s going to dwarf the 2018 40 year record flu death of 80,000.
You’re so smart you believe the lying Chinese Virus propagators
Please take this as an honest, non-leading question. I believe this pandemic is deadly serious and am taking necessary steps, but the CFR results do bug me.
Would it be accurate to say that as defined the CFR is 17%, however this metric represents an upper bound due to the fact that it does not include asymptomatic cases, minor cases that are untested or unconfirmed, and does not include fully recovered cases that are either still recovering (remaining potential fatalities) or not included in formal recovery data?
I am honestly asking to help my understanding of the data.
Thanks in advance and take care.
So it seems you’re equating number of those exposed to number of those infected. I don’t think that’s correct. The former should be much less than the latter. At least I hope so. :)
They don’t have a clue
The flu does not kill that many. Few hundred to several thousand per year died of flu. The rest are pneumonia deaths and estimated flu deaths.
Oops. I said it backwards. The former should be much MORE than the latter.
"Active Cases 433,586 Currently Infected Patients
411,493 (95%) in Mild Condition
22,093 (5%) Serious or Critical",
The CFR cannot be accurately calculated until a pandemic is over.
And it really doesn’t matter. In the general mix of things, you might get sick. It might even be serious. But the odds of you dying are very, very low.
Hardly anyone on these forums understands the calculation and how they work. Nor do they even understand how this differ than the flu.
Don’t waste your time trying to “pin” this down. It wasted energy and it will do nothing except make you frustrated when you try to explain it to people who’s last experience with statistics was on the back of a baseball card.
The people who believe COVID-19 is no worse than seasonal flu are the gullible ones.
Yes, there are very high annual numbers for people contracting the seasonal flu, getting hospitalized for seasonal flu, and dying from seasonal flu. But, contrary to what naysayers want you to believe, COVID-19 is much worse than seasonal flu.
Why? Because COVID-19 is far more infectious than any seasonal flu. Naysayers are looking at ANNUAL numbers for seasonal flu. But unlike any seasonal flu, numbers of known people in the USA contracting COVID-19 virus have been increasing exponentially by a power of ten (10X) every 8-9 days!
Consider this:
- On March 2 there were approximately 100 known cases in the USA.
- On March 10 there were approximately 1,000.
- On March 18 there were nearly 10,000.
- On March 27, mid-day, we are well over 100,000.
It graphs on a logarithmic scale as a straight line and the slope of the line has lowered little, if at all, since the beginning.
We are on course to have:
- 1 million cases in the USA by April 4th.
- 10 million cases in the USA by mid-April
The knuckleheads who think COVID-19 is no worse than a seasonal flu need to understand what the above numbers mean. The US healthcare system, personnel, logistics, and infrastructure, are facing well over 100,000 NEW cases in this month alone. Much worse, and here is where all comparisons with seasonal flu go out the window, the US is on track to have over 10 million NEW cases by mid April. Further, unless something drastically lowers the slope of that logarithmic line, COVID-19 can be expected to infect over 30 million people, 10% of the US population, by the end of April. Ask yourself, are we prepared to deal with tens of millions of cases of this virus in one single month?
No, COVID-19 is not like the seasonal flu!
Stop listening to those who pooh-pooh COVID-19.
Dig in, folks. We’re due for a rough ride!
Would be great if FR could find a nice balance between the extremes on this. I even hate the FluBro, Fearper labels. Just pits us against each other.
Their pissing matches make this site almost unreadable at times.
How do you think the regular seasonal flu got to 58 Million LAST YEAR?
I really cannot believe people are that gullible.
I agree. I am really looking forward to a month or two from now when this is all over (or at least mostly over, or at least on the downward trend, and the economy on the upward trend). :)
You are right. I am wasting my time.
They will believe anything. It’s like a brain virus, but instead of turning people into zombies who wander around saying “brains” it turns people into cowards who give up their freedoms and wander around saying “toilet paper”
We signed up 2 days apart in 2000!
I really like this place but over the years I have become jaded. I mainly just read the articles and move on. I’ve only posted three articles in 20 years.
But some of the people here now are completely off the deep end. No civil thinking - just out to try to run down those that don’t think the same as they do.
It wasn’t that way all those years ago. Much more thoughtful back then. Much more debate and facts - much less attitude and insult.
I will probably hang in here until a pandemic gets me though.
I appreciate what you are saying!
FRegards!
“....Every exposure to the CCP-19 virus is new. Nobody has immunity, there is no vaccine. So up to 100% of the population could get it. In the 4 months it has been going, under the best circumstances we have been able to manage, it has killed about 2% of the people that get it. 20x as deadly as the common flu on a per case basis.....”
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Hmmm...so 2% of those who “get it” (i.e., are infected with the virus) are killed. So what is YOUR total count of those who have been infected? That “count” needs to be known to compute your 2% death rate. And from where did you obtain this “infected” rate? Are there any “infected” people who have been missed in this count?
And what number of killed are you using in your computation of the 2% death rate.
Looking for clarity of thinking in this.
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