Posted on 03/27/2020 9:27:41 AM PDT by Mariner
Yesterday's thread here:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3828581/posts?page=1
Turbulent clouds? oh my! where’s my mask?
Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions
Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19
Turbulent gas cloud dynamics should influence the design and recommended use of surgical and other masks. These masks can be used both for source control (ie, reducing spread from an infected person) and for protection of the wearer (ie, preventing spread to an unaffected person). The protective efficacy of N95 masks depends on their ability to filter incoming air from aerosolized droplet nuclei. However, these masks are only designed for a certain range of environmental and local conditions and a limited duration of usage.9 Mask efficacy as source control depends on the ability of the mask to trap or alter the high-momentum gas cloud emission with its pathogenic payload. Peak exhalation speeds can reach up to 33 to 100 feet per second (10-30 m/s), creating a cloud that can span approximately 23 to 27 feet (7-8 m). Protective and source control masks, as well as other protective equipment, should have the ability to repeatedly withstand the kind of high-momentum multiphase turbulent gas cloud that may be ejected during a sneeze or a cough and the exposure from them. Currently used surgical and N95 masks are not tested for these potential characteristics of respiratory emissions.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852
Isn’t it “for the LOVE of money is the root of all evil”? 1 Timothy 6:10
Every hotspot has ‘its own curve’: How coronavirus cases are growing around the United States
The seeds came in at different times’
...In CNN’s analysis, the 15-day period starting at the beginning of March saw large daily increases in states such as Washington, California and New York.
But Florida, Georgia, Louisiana and Tennessee only began to see sharply rising numbers in the second half of March. It remains unclear whether those dates reflect the beginnings of actual outbreaks, or stepped-up testing that revealed those outbreaks.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, acknowledged these varying timelines in a press briefing Monday.
“Each state and each hotspot in the United States is going to be its own curve, because the seeds came in at different times,” said Birx.
“So, Washington state is on their curve they’re about two weeks ahead of New York,” she added.
where’s the guy with the cellphone tracking program? where did the mid-March travel into the Southern States come from?
In the Friday March 27th briefing Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb and State Health Commissioner Kristina Box once again declined to answer specific questions regarding the number of intensive care unit beds and ventilators available in Indiana, citing contracts between the state and individual hospital systems.
Holcomb said the state may be able to release more general, regional information, but did not provide a timeline for when that information could become public.
Box said, “I can tell you that I have talked to many, many of our hospital systems regionally and individually as a hospital system, they are very confident in their response to the situation.”
How do you explain the antibodies to a bat coronavirus found in Chinese villagers (not near any lab), study published 3 years ago?
I’m willing to bet what’s left of my retirement acct. that if virus signatures (or antibodies) would survive that long, one could dig up dead Chinese villagers from any time period you please, and some would have similar evidence.
Monona County has second case of COVID-19 (Iowa, 3/27/20)
Coronavirus in Central Texas: Confirmed cases in Travis County climb to 160 (3/27/20)
Pflugerville ISD staffer tests positive for coronavirus (Texas, 3/27/20)
First case of confirmed coronavirus in southeast South Dakota (3/27/20)
COVID-19 testing site opens in Sioux City (Iowa, 3/27/20)
Coronavirus in Texas: Westlake senior living staffer tests positive for COVID-19 (3/27/20)
Giant Eagle reports 3 employees tested positive for COVID-19 (Pennsylvania, 3/27/20)
12 dead from the DP. 1 on board, 1 evacuated to the US, 1 evacuated to Canada.
And somewhere they found another 5 cases for a total of 712.
597 recovered, leaving 103 cases unresolved.
The DCR for the DP is 1.7%, the current CFR is 2%. The final CFR will be somewhere in between those numbers, I expect, but if all 103 were to die it would be way higher (16%), and if none of the 13 die it drops to 1.7%. That 1.7% is, mathematically, as low as it can get given the reported numbers.
“border issues between Canada and the USA”
If they won’t wash their hands or stay on their side, we should simply annex them and be done with it. 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border, anyway. Yeah, yeah, I know, too many liberals would pollute the Senate.
12 dead from the DP. 10 on board, 1 evacuated to the US, 1 evacuated to Canada.
My '0' key sticks sometimes, sorry.
Caixin - a reputable Chinese website - is estimating the death toll in Wuhan, based on number of urns Funeral urn ordered by mortuaries, at 40,000. Nearly 20x official figures
https://twitter.com/DoubleEph/status/1243835932106723328?s=20
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That is pretty nasty. Comments like that can get you burned ...... karma.
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The math produced from various "experts" has been woefully incomplete.
For instance these death rates we are reading and hearing are only meaningful or near correct if all who got sick of the virus could be determined, or at least, if there were much more testing.
Anyhow, I'm 73 years old and my wife is 70. We treat this virus with "respect and fear" no matter what people are calling it.
Wishing you all well ...........and here's hoping that we hear the words, "PLAY BALL", sometime in the next weeks or months.
A little clip I came across from Tucker’s show where he replays NYC’s officials urging their people to maintain their lifestyle. Up until a couple of weeks ago.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-nyc-leaders-endangering-public-coronavirus
Here’s more videos and irresponsible quotes and videos from the nyc health commissioner
“ “We are encouraging New Yorkers to go about their everyday lives and suggest practicing everyday precautions that we do through the flu season,” Barbot said on January 26th. She even added that those “who had recently traveled from Wuhan were not being urged to self-quarantine or avoid large public gatherings.”
On February 2nd, she urged the same lack of caution: “The risk to New Yorkers for Coronavirus is low, and our preparedness as a city is very high. There is no reason not to take the subway, not to take the bus, not to go out to your favorite restaurant, and certainly not to miss the parade next Sunday.”
so we know that this virus can be transmitted from one individual to another, but that it’s typically people who live together. That there’s no risk at this point in time — we’re always learning more — about having it be transmitted in casual contact, right?”
https://news.grabien.com/story-flashback-nyc-health-commissioner-urged-new-yorkers-gather-p
Good posts.
This virus has made a monkey out of public officials in every country, in every US state, county and city.
They think in linear terms.
The virus acts in an exponential way, so public officials will always be a day late and a dollar short.
Bottom line: We humans are a lot dumber than we think we are. When caught being stupid, the natural human reaction is to hide the lie, if caught then point the finger at someone else, but never never never step up and admit you f*&^ed up because you were f*&^ing stupid.
Just yesterday I saw a doctor on Fox who said that between days 1-3 of infection the test will be negative, the best time for testing is days 4-10.
Missouri up from 502 to 670 as of yesterday at 2pm when they post new numbers. Mostly St Louis, KC and Springfield.
Your a PhD in I don’t know what so I cant tell you anything i guess. You clearly weren’t a PhD in math or engineering. Only the start of the cycle could be described as close to an exponential curve. The growth AND decay of the cycle is not an exponential, it going to be more sinusoidal, which is described by Fourier better than polynomial.
An exponential fit is one of many tools in a tool box. If you had studied math, statistics to any degree you would be looking at ALL the other tools in the box knowing that at some point this is no longer exponential.
It’s likely this would be fit by a first or second order Fourier fit or first order Fourier polynomial. I’ve done my part to make you aware. Carry on PhD
Thank you. I am, in fact, looking for an inflection point. My indication that we have reached one will be that the R squared value starts dropping—meaning that the polynomial function I have been using is no longer adequate to graph the data, and that I need to start deriving an exponential equation to describe the disease course.
I also noticed that I made a mistake in describing the quantitative difference between the polynomial and the exponential equations. I said that they are close within thousands—that should have been thousandths. I was up way too late posting, I should know better!
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