[exDemMom]

Thank you. I am, in fact, looking for an inflection point. My indication that we have reached one will be that the R squared value starts dropping—meaning that the polynomial function I have been using is no longer adequate to graph the data, and that I need to start deriving an exponential equation to describe the disease course.

I also noticed that I made a mistake in describing the quantitative difference between the polynomial and the exponential equations. I said that they are close within thousands—that should have been thousandths. I was up way too late posting, I should know better!

[BusterDog]

IHME Projected Peak Hospital Resource Use and Deaths

The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

16 days until peak resource use on April 14, 2020

Hospital Bed Shortage 49,292 at peak

ICU Bed Shortage 14,601 at peak

Invasive ventilators needed 18,767 at peak

2,341 per day COVID-19 deaths projected on April 13, 2020

Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 3, 2020 in United States of America 81,114

http://covid19.healthdata.org

"The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them."