Posted on 03/24/2020 11:22:45 AM PDT by rb22982
New epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
(Excerpt) Read more at ft.com ...
If half have already been infected, they are getting close to “herd immunity.”
The real key would be if this malaria drug combo keeps the seriously ill from needing respirators. If it does then the real reason for the lockdown (preventing overflow/collapse of the hospital system) will become null and void.
Why wouldn’t it have infected millions? It was free to do so before anyone was hepped up to it. If it’s as contagious as they say say then it’s out there bigtime.
Yeah, let’s go door to door demanding blood. That will make for quite a spectacle.
Which obviously explains the 500,000 bodies scattered across the English countryside. /s
Yeah, but if we "flatten the curve" enough, we can keep it going indefinitely.
Yes, it means we’d be about 2 weeks away from herd immunity.
You don’t actually need a massive sample size - 1000 random people would work. Better than destroying the world’s economy first.
If this Oxford study is right, the Malaria drug won’t even matter - we are only 2-3 weeks away from being done and having herd immunity. It means we’re on gen 18-21 with this, and not get 10 like the Imperial model suggested.
I believe, I had this starting on March 8, bad sore throat then bad gastrointestinal pains, felt like flu for few days, then fine.
Hope that USA will soon find that 20-30% already has virus and new
Cases will fall off.
little or no sickness? So what’s all the hub-bub about?
This is complete and utter HS that is unsupported by any reasonable extrapolation from numbers that are already well known.
My guess is that this is the second wave. Who knows when the first wave actually began.
No, it’s not, actually. It matches up perfectly with why the cases fizzle out without massive #s in S Korea and elsewhere and why this hasn’t re-exploded in China.
Nah, this probably started in China in October and was here in the US in mid-late Nov, which would put us in wave 20ish instead of wave 10 like the imperial college model had. Also means we’re probably nearly done as well - 2 or 3 more weeks and we’ll have herd immunity.
Does anyone actually believe 1/2 their population has been infected already?
Where is the proof of this statement.
It does’t pass the smell test.
Oh BS. SK tests widely. There are 9000 cases and 100 deaths so about .1% rate of death. In the US there are 672 deaths matching to 67,000 cases if the statistics hold. That’s far from 6ook or 6M or 60M or some other hyperinflated number.
The democrat governors are declaring themselves dictators, deciding which businesses get to open or must close. It doesn’t matter the outcome of this virus, they learned how to get compliance out of the sheeple.
And at the SK rate the dead bodies would be rather ripe at this point.
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