Until we can test everyone we don’t don’t the infection rate. So all sata is kinda of worthless... Other than people in hospital, deaths, and people out of hospital.
Best data going forward will be SK’s
They tested everyone and their dog (Ok, that was hong kong).
They caught many/most of the mild cases that aren’t being caught by systems that only test people sick enough to go to a doctor.
To me, the most important news is that those percentages have been decreasing steadily for days.
Not growing exponentially as some have predicted.
Possible Solution:
Shut all nonessential industries down for 14 days... (maximum incubation time).
After shutdown open all companies.
Each company has people stationed at work place entrance taking temperatures. Those with a temperature are taken to medical care facilities - proactive care reduces extreme care - saving supplies for those who really need them.
Grocery stores and pharmacies also take temperatures of all people entering.
This saves lives and the economy. It’s a modified Singapore system...
China quit reporting mild symptoms as confirmed cases even if they tested positive so they are probably a lower wont-be-down-for-breakfast rate. ON the other hand, they probably hid a ton of deaths, so maybe it’s a wash. In any case, seems like bad scientific method to include them. The only less reliable numbers are dem climate change #s.
You need to look at individual province mortality rates.
You’ll see it varies a lot and correlates with newer more advanced regions of China being much lower than others, with Wuhan’s Hubei, where 3/4 of the cases were, skews it high. Compare Hubei to Guangdong.
Taking out il signore and old muzzies with remarkably identical habits -- grandpas who start the day with a smoke, and then go down to the cafe to hustle backgammon games and eat fatty food.
How many people who test positive are hospitalized ? In NYC DeBlasio makes it seem that every positive test results in hospitalization. If that is true then there is real trouble ahead, but if the ratio of positive test to hospitalization is small then it may be manageable.
Also in NY the ratio of positive to negative test result is about 1 to 4. And in NY you must either be symptomatic or had very close contact with a carrier. To me that seems positive as the testing pool is not just a segment of the general population but of specific groups likely to have the virus. 1 in 4 of that group portends a 1 in much larger number of gen pop.
I think the best example of the infection/mortality rates can be found from the Diamond Princess Cruise that was quarantined in Japan. This was an ideal scenario for measuring infection rates since it was a contained environment. Of the 3,711 total souls on board, only 634 (17%) tested positive for COVID-19. Of those, 328 showed no symptoms. In total, 7 cases were fatal. What is interesting is that a number of crew were found to be infected, including food handlers. And the fact that there were no preventative measures in place since no one onboard knew about COVID-19. If 83% of those exposed to the virus in a contained environment did not contract it, then I think the hysteria that the media is creating is unwarranted.
Data: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf
I don’t trust any of the Chinese numbers. All lying. Look at the traffic cameras in Wuhan. Entire city still on lockdown. They are not ‘back up and running’ though they have used slave labor (Muslims) to re-open some factories. This is a PR issue for them.
South Korea. Those numbers I trust. They did extremely high numbers of testing and got on top of this.
U.S. response - aside from stopping planes from China - has been weak. Los Angeles now no longer even bothers to test. It doesn’t matter. Cats already out of the bag. New York is an epicenter.
Will will have the highest number of cases and deaths (reported) in the world soon. We’ve only now just begun testing.
18% in New York are requiring hospitalization. What this does is COLLAPSES THE MEDICAL SYSTEM.
The high survival rates are based on what? Low number infected and receiving max car.
Once the ICUs are filled (requires 18 days on a ventilator) then what? Then, like italy, we just tell people over 60, “Sorry. You lived your life. This 40-year-old with 3 kids gets the ventilator.”
LINKS:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Cuomo today said 80% of New Yorkers would eventually get it. New Jersey health administrator said, “we all will get it eventually.”
We will be Italy in a few weeks, or worse.
Also, look for mass riots and looting once the police forces are too sick to control the populace. The military will be stepping in.
North Korea has NO cases of the Wuhan Flu.
Counting raindrops.
Of those cases 8 have died (1.1% up 1 from yesterday's numbers) 551 have recovered (77.4% up 24 since yesterday's count), and still infected 153 (22.5% down 25 cases (1 death & 24 recoveries)).
So by a factor of 24 to 1 (24 recoveries vs 1 death) of resolved cases, recovered is winning the day, which is a good sign.
Why the Diamond Princess is the perfect petri dish to examine, is 4 fold, a large number of people, 4000+, consisting of crew and passengers. The passengers ate together in dining halls, they were limited in space aboard the ship, there was lots of social interaction, and a large number of older people.
While 17% became infected, 83% did not become infected. First good sign. So far the recovered rate stands at 77.4%, and that percentage can only increase, not decrease. In fact that is true for both deceased, as well as, recovered percentages. The only percentage that can decrease is the still infected percentage. The maximum death rate at this point can be as high as 23.6%. That is highly unlikely given that the recovered numbers vs death numbers out performed by a 24 to 1 factor just since yesterday.
So at this point it looks very promising.
Last I heard S. Korea mortality rate is 0.6%.
As far as some posters predicting this or that, please preface your comments with proof of your Nostradamus-like credentials.
Actually, those numbers are bogus because we don’t know how many people were actually infected but didn’t seek medical attention and or were tested.
As with the flu or common cold, not everybody goes to a doctor when sick. Those mortality numbers are actually much lower if those unknown people are factored in.
"Another major carrier, China Telecommunications, lost 5.6 million users in Feb. I haven't found any figures for China Unicom”
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1241025420562178050
Let’s use some numbers from the CDC.
March 2020 CDC Report: “...45 million flu illnesses, at least 300,000 hospitalizations, and up to 46,000 deaths from flu...”
That means about 150 times as many people catch the flu as are hospitalized.
Flu deaths are about 0.1% of those infected. If you used hospitalized patients, the death rate is 15%.
Lying with numbers. If the liberal media wants to scare people they would report the flu has a 15% death rate.
I saw an analysis of the Chinese portion of the outbreak, where the authors of the article had determined a case fatality rate (a historical number which cannot usually be determined during an on-going outbreak). It was about 2.8%, I think.
In any case, I have been keeping track of the case numbers, deaths, and recoveries in a spreadsheet since Mar 12. I’m not breaking anything down by country, but just looking at total case load. What I see today is alarming. In the most recent 28 hour period, there have been 40964 new cases. In the previous 24 hour period, there were 23633 new cases. Thus, the number of new cases nearly doubled since yesterday. This is alarming. In addition, the death rate today is 4.15%, compared to when I first started my spreadsheet and it was 3.67%. The number of active cases and the lag time of 2-6 weeks between becoming ill and dying means that the death rate can still increase.
3/12/2020:
Total cases: 126135 / Active cases: 53289 / Deaths: 4630 / Recoveries: 68216 / Death rate: 3.67% / Recovery rate: 54.1%
The number of new cases from Mar 12-13 was 11,310.
3/21/2020
Total cases: 287,239 / Active cases: 185419 / Deaths: 11,921 / Recoveries: 89,899 / Death rate: 4.15% / Recovery rate: 31.3%
The increase in the number of new cases is very worrisome. It looks like the pandemic may have entered the exponential growth phase (not good).