Posted on 03/21/2020 9:13:04 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
I think it is fair to say that ChiCom Flu data have been gathered for a long enough time to do some statistical analysis. However, I cannot vouch for the validity of data, e.g., China's or Iran's data. But I will run the mortality percentages for some nations and you can draw conclusions on what ever you like. Tell me if the sky is still blue and white if you see that in the data. I am not drawing my own conclusions here. This is just something to think about.
1. China: 4.01%
2. Italy: 8.57%
3. Spain: 5.34%
4. Germany: 0.37%
5. Iran: 7.55%
6. USA: 1.38%
7. France: 3.60%
8. South Korea: 1.16%
9. Switzerland: 0.94%
10. UK: 4.43%
Until we can test everyone we don’t don’t the infection rate. So all sata is kinda of worthless... Other than people in hospital, deaths, and people out of hospital.
Best data going forward will be SK’s
They tested everyone and their dog (Ok, that was hong kong).
They caught many/most of the mild cases that aren’t being caught by systems that only test people sick enough to go to a doctor.
To me, the most important news is that those percentages have been decreasing steadily for days.
Not growing exponentially as some have predicted.
Possible Solution:
Shut all nonessential industries down for 14 days... (maximum incubation time).
After shutdown open all companies.
Each company has people stationed at work place entrance taking temperatures. Those with a temperature are taken to medical care facilities - proactive care reduces extreme care - saving supplies for those who really need them.
Grocery stores and pharmacies also take temperatures of all people entering.
This saves lives and the economy. It’s a modified Singapore system...
China quit reporting mild symptoms as confirmed cases even if they tested positive so they are probably a lower wont-be-down-for-breakfast rate. ON the other hand, they probably hid a ton of deaths, so maybe it’s a wash. In any case, seems like bad scientific method to include them. The only less reliable numbers are dem climate change #s.
You need to look at individual province mortality rates.
You’ll see it varies a lot and correlates with newer more advanced regions of China being much lower than others, with Wuhan’s Hubei, where 3/4 of the cases were, skews it high. Compare Hubei to Guangdong.
“Best data going forward will be SK’s”
And it can be trusted.
Japan too, but they had few cases.
Taking out il signore and old muzzies with remarkably identical habits -- grandpas who start the day with a smoke, and then go down to the cafe to hustle backgammon games and eat fatty food.
“Shut all nonessential industries down for 14 days... (maximum incubation time”
Should have gone with the temperature thing in the first place to isolate anyone potentially with it. Especially travelers.
So yeah, I think this is the plan
How many people who test positive are hospitalized ? In NYC DeBlasio makes it seem that every positive test results in hospitalization. If that is true then there is real trouble ahead, but if the ratio of positive test to hospitalization is small then it may be manageable.
Also in NY the ratio of positive to negative test result is about 1 to 4. And in NY you must either be symptomatic or had very close contact with a carrier. To me that seems positive as the testing pool is not just a segment of the general population but of specific groups likely to have the virus. 1 in 4 of that group portends a 1 in much larger number of gen pop.
What is it for Guangdong?
Good points.
It’s not a good illness to get, harsher than the flu for many.
But it’s not apocalyptic.
The social reaction is more apocalyptic. Cure worse than the disease.
We know the % that die from infection.
The only reliable statistic, and that is subject to review and adjustment, is the number of deaths. You have a body.
The only number of interest to me is the number of US deaths. Right now we’re at close to 300 total from covid 19 and it started in the first week of March.
The regular flu has clocked 4,400 this season and we’re still collecting bodies at the rate of 300 per week.
Hope they keep them separate.
If 19 is like the regular flu, and I think it is, it will peak in the 14th to 22nd week at between 500 and 1600 deaths per week. Then it will drop for another 10 to 20 weeks. That rate is normal for a flu virus.
Not all are hospitalized. There are plenty that quarantine at home, particularly those with mild cases and do not require medical attention.
Silly Freeper, SK can't test all their dogs, they eat them before they can test them.(j/k)
I think the best example of the infection/mortality rates can be found from the Diamond Princess Cruise that was quarantined in Japan. This was an ideal scenario for measuring infection rates since it was a contained environment. Of the 3,711 total souls on board, only 634 (17%) tested positive for COVID-19. Of those, 328 showed no symptoms. In total, 7 cases were fatal. What is interesting is that a number of crew were found to be infected, including food handlers. And the fact that there were no preventative measures in place since no one onboard knew about COVID-19. If 83% of those exposed to the virus in a contained environment did not contract it, then I think the hysteria that the media is creating is unwarranted.
Data: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf
No we know the number that die.
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