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To: ConservativeInPA
As I have been saying, the Diamond Princess is the perfect petri dish to examine, as the number of confirmed cases is a hard number of 712 cases confirmed. Roughly 17% of the population onboard the Diamond Princess.

Of those cases 8 have died (1.1% up 1 from yesterday's numbers) 551 have recovered (77.4% up 24 since yesterday's count), and still infected 153 (22.5% down 25 cases (1 death & 24 recoveries)).

So by a factor of 24 to 1 (24 recoveries vs 1 death) of resolved cases, recovered is winning the day, which is a good sign.

Why the Diamond Princess is the perfect petri dish to examine, is 4 fold, a large number of people, 4000+, consisting of crew and passengers. The passengers ate together in dining halls, they were limited in space aboard the ship, there was lots of social interaction, and a large number of older people.

While 17% became infected, 83% did not become infected. First good sign. So far the recovered rate stands at 77.4%, and that percentage can only increase, not decrease. In fact that is true for both deceased, as well as, recovered percentages. The only percentage that can decrease is the still infected percentage. The maximum death rate at this point can be as high as 23.6%. That is highly unlikely given that the recovered numbers vs death numbers out performed by a 24 to 1 factor just since yesterday.

So at this point it looks very promising.

32 posted on 03/21/2020 9:46:18 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: Robert DeLong
and a large number of older people.

That is very positive. In fact, I am willing to bet there isn't a normal age distribution on the Diamond Princess. It probably lacks a significant under 40 population. Additionally, you don't have a lot of preexisting conditions like in the nursing home in Washington state. The latter is not consistent with the normal population and can be viewed as statistical noise. (not to be insensitive)

37 posted on 03/21/2020 9:56:00 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA (It's official! I'm nominated for the 2020 Mr. Hyperbole and Sarcasm Award.)
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