Posted on 03/21/2020 9:13:04 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
I think it is fair to say that ChiCom Flu data have been gathered for a long enough time to do some statistical analysis. However, I cannot vouch for the validity of data, e.g., China's or Iran's data. But I will run the mortality percentages for some nations and you can draw conclusions on what ever you like. Tell me if the sky is still blue and white if you see that in the data. I am not drawing my own conclusions here. This is just something to think about.
1. China: 4.01%
2. Italy: 8.57%
3. Spain: 5.34%
4. Germany: 0.37%
5. Iran: 7.55%
6. USA: 1.38%
7. France: 3.60%
8. South Korea: 1.16%
9. Switzerland: 0.94%
10. UK: 4.43%
Wait till next week, wait till next week, wait till next week, We'll be like Italy /sarc
It's just that easy right? Most will be closed for good.
That IS very interesting. I have not seen those stats before.
It’s just the flu.
South Korea’s has been going up, not down.
Rates of 0.8%, 0.855, 0.9% were being touted as “see it’s not so bad”. Now it’s up to 1.17%. Putting it back above Dr. Fouci’s 1%, 10 times more lethal than flu claim.
I don’t trust any of the Chinese numbers. All lying. Look at the traffic cameras in Wuhan. Entire city still on lockdown. They are not ‘back up and running’ though they have used slave labor (Muslims) to re-open some factories. This is a PR issue for them.
South Korea. Those numbers I trust. They did extremely high numbers of testing and got on top of this.
U.S. response - aside from stopping planes from China - has been weak. Los Angeles now no longer even bothers to test. It doesn’t matter. Cats already out of the bag. New York is an epicenter.
Will will have the highest number of cases and deaths (reported) in the world soon. We’ve only now just begun testing.
18% in New York are requiring hospitalization. What this does is COLLAPSES THE MEDICAL SYSTEM.
The high survival rates are based on what? Low number infected and receiving max car.
Once the ICUs are filled (requires 18 days on a ventilator) then what? Then, like italy, we just tell people over 60, “Sorry. You lived your life. This 40-year-old with 3 kids gets the ventilator.”
LINKS:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Cuomo today said 80% of New Yorkers would eventually get it. New Jersey health administrator said, “we all will get it eventually.”
We will be Italy in a few weeks, or worse.
Also, look for mass riots and looting once the police forces are too sick to control the populace. The military will be stepping in.
Yes the number of confirmed cases that die.
North Korea has NO cases of the Wuhan Flu.
Counting raindrops.
Hmm, maybe some Rats will move there when Trump wins in November. Superior healthcare system there, you know.
That’s growth, but not exponential growth. Most other places, we are seeing actual decline in the rate of growth, including in the US.
Coronavirus is going to kill people. There’s never been any doubt about that.
The question is how many and how quickly.
We still don’t know the answer to that, but there has been a lot of hopeful data reported over the last couple of days that suggest it isn’t going to be as dire as many feared.
Praying that continues to hold because if so, things could start getting back to normal relatively soon.
Of those cases 8 have died (1.1% up 1 from yesterday's numbers) 551 have recovered (77.4% up 24 since yesterday's count), and still infected 153 (22.5% down 25 cases (1 death & 24 recoveries)).
So by a factor of 24 to 1 (24 recoveries vs 1 death) of resolved cases, recovered is winning the day, which is a good sign.
Why the Diamond Princess is the perfect petri dish to examine, is 4 fold, a large number of people, 4000+, consisting of crew and passengers. The passengers ate together in dining halls, they were limited in space aboard the ship, there was lots of social interaction, and a large number of older people.
While 17% became infected, 83% did not become infected. First good sign. So far the recovered rate stands at 77.4%, and that percentage can only increase, not decrease. In fact that is true for both deceased, as well as, recovered percentages. The only percentage that can decrease is the still infected percentage. The maximum death rate at this point can be as high as 23.6%. That is highly unlikely given that the recovered numbers vs death numbers out performed by a 24 to 1 factor just since yesterday.
So at this point it looks very promising.
It gives us a shot without destroying the economy AND killing our first responders, doctors, medical personnel, grocery store workers, and pharmacy employees.
Stop the virus carriers NOT the economy.
The White House just started temp checks on people entering the White House... they’ve found the solution now they need to apply the same solution for the rest of us.
The case mortality rate has never been claimed to be growing exponentially.
It’s the number of cases that are growing exponentially.
I think the US data is just too new to use yet. We started with Seattle and a nursing home being hit. That sent the case mortality rate to an artificially high 6%. Now, it’s come down to 1.3%. But the testing is still ramping.
That 1.3% is still higher than the 1%, 10 times worse than seasonal flu, figure that Dr. Fouci estimated.
But it’s a lot lower than the 3.4% rate the WHO said the rest of the world had seen. Lets hope it stays that way and that we can drive the US rate lower with treatments.
A reasonable supposition but no one, to my knowledge, has complied stats, or maybe releasing them, showing the ratio of positives to admissions. To me that is a most important piece of information in judging the severity of the virus.
That is very positive. In fact, I am willing to bet there isn't a normal age distribution on the Diamond Princess. It probably lacks a significant under 40 population. Additionally, you don't have a lot of preexisting conditions like in the nursing home in Washington state. The latter is not consistent with the normal population and can be viewed as statistical noise. (not to be insensitive)
The initial China ban involved temp checks.
It worked.
Careerist bureaucrats seem to have gained too much influence.
The early and fast response using screening and quarantine worked before swamp creatures began moving in.
Last I heard S. Korea mortality rate is 0.6%.
As far as some posters predicting this or that, please preface your comments with proof of your Nostradamus-like credentials.
That said, being old does not necessarily equate to bad health or even compromised immune systems, just as being young does not equate to a healthy immune system. Two of my grandchildren have asthma, which means they have compromised immune systems. They are about 10 & 6, if I remember correctly. 8>)
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