Posted on 03/17/2020 4:36:45 AM PDT by tatown
What if we compared the mortality rate of influenza and coronavirus using only confirmed cases (no estimates)? People seem to like to use a ~0.1% mortality rate for seasonal flu when comparing it to coronavirus. This 0.1% figures includes all of the estimated influenza cases in the US, using modeling, which dramatically lowers the mortality rate. The same modeling/estimating is never applied to coronavirus. What happens when we only use confirmed cases for each and eliminate the models and estimates for total cases?
Per the CDC the number of CONFIRMED seasonal flu cases this year in the US is 222,552 with 22,000 deaths. This calculates to a mortality rate of ~10%.
The number of confirmed coronavirus case in the US is 4743 with 93 deaths. Using the same math, the mortality rate is 1.9%.
Based on these calculations coronavirus appears no more lethal that the seasonal flu and may in fact be significantly less so. Again, this calculation is void of opinion and hysteria and simply relies on data that is known (confirmed cases and confirmed deaths). No estimates, no models, no Chinese data, Iranian data, Italian data, South Korean, etc...
I think you just noticed the elephant in the room.
The HIV+ crowd must be in a panic, and given the power of the "gay community", this may be a major driving force behind the quarantine.
Not really...CDC can make “in the 95% UI range” estimates...suffice it to say that there are tens of millions of flu/flu caused pneumonia cases per flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Based on no reported numbers except pediatric deaths. Sounds accurate to me. Must be why they get that tight range of 22k to 55k deaths for this year.
I trust President Trump
So using sub-clinical infections for the denominator for Corona virus gives a lower fatality rate that using only clinical cases for the denominator for the seasonal flu.
Makes sense to me...
Fair enuf, thank you!
What if the cruise ship. Absolute ideal conditions and lest than 1/4 of patients got the disease.
Getting a grip is now impossible. But these are the data
This a nasty bug. I feel for those personally affected by it. But it does society no good if the cure kills the patient.
JonPreston:
You should just sit and watch. You aren’t bright enough to understand this conversation. Most people are as dumb as you, but they’ve at least learned to shut up.
Where did you get your flu #’s? That looks really low and the flu doesn’t kill 10% of the people who get it
The virus is not a hoax. That is quite clear.
That understanding, however, doesn’t provide any reason to believe that the various governments and agencies involved are not to some degree interested in depriving citizens of their Constitutional rights (for their own good, of course).
“You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.”
tatown:
You’re correct. The hysteria is massively out of proportion.
But, you should acknowledge that seasonal flu is deadly fatal for many people. “No worse than seasonal flu” can still be very bad.
Take care of you old folks.
Actually, youll just receive thousands of pie graphs and charts and data from God knows where showing you how wrong you are.
I was told last month from the cut and paste graphers that all heck was going to break loose in a week. Now here we are nearing three weeks later and little has changed. Except a crashed stock market and cratered economy, of course. Wu Flu will be mostly gone in weeks. But the economic carnage caused by the Wuhan Virus Panic of 2020 will take years to recover from.
Oh?
Isn't it spread through public education?
...and air travel via CNN infested airports?
That’s .0003% mortality rate for the flu where Corona is 2% in the US.
I think the OP got his numbers from Facebook
Just nod in agreement, yes this is pretty terrible....
And just continue to quietly improve your position.
This has shown me where some of my weak points are/were - and presently being addressed.
I never understood why people have so much trouble with math. Number don’t lie. 93 is not greater then 22,000. Unless you want it to.
I was thinking yesterday NOW is the time to buy stocks if you’re into that because when the market comes back, those folks who do will make a fortune.
?
What is more life changing that death?
Mortality rate, or death rate, is a measure of the number of deaths in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time.
Maybe Infection rate if such a term exists is what people are arguing about.
I absolutely agree. It’s just difficult trying to winnow out the bad guys from the good guys. Especially with all the static coming from anybody and everybody on the planet that has an internet connection. There are those that want to help...and those that want to subjugate the rest of us. FR is a good microcosm to observe those actions.
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