Posted on 03/15/2020 7:44:54 AM PDT by griffin
Is it time to panic? NO.
This document is trying to help you to understand the situation at hand and not to terrify you. We want to make sure you understand the facts and understand what is at stake. This is a Pearl Harbor moment for our country. We are facing a real threat and we need to face it with all of our resources. When people decry the seriousness of this moment they are steering our country off a cliff, we need everyone to understand that this is important and if we work together to slow the spread we will get through this as we are learning from Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China.
The effectiveness of our healthcare system to deal with a sudden tsunami of respiratory illness is what is at risk. If our healthcare system buckles under the strain of tens of thousands of patients then we could be looking at a catastrophe.
(Excerpt) Read more at howardluksmd.com ...
“Doesn’t need to “work” 100%. Working 50% will still save lives.”
Yes, especially among the elderly, of most concern (for life-loving people).
It will spread until it’s burned through infected areas, slowed by warm weather and/or stopped by medicine, imo.
You remind me of the dumber version of zombie in the movie Zombieland Double Tap. You know, the last one, at the end of the movie, running off of the tower.
“Your numbers are way off if you are in a collapsed health system.”
Please demonstrate how my numbers are “way off”. The current numbers I used derive in part from where most of the deaths have occurred — in collapsed health systems (China, Italy and likely Iran). The current death rate therefore represents, in large part, a worst case scenario arising within poorly prepared countries.
This is akin to listening to a Mechanical Engineer lecturing us on our carbon footprint.
“At least 16,000 have died from the flu.” Yes, they have. We have vaccines for the flu. We have easy, readily available testing for the flu. And yet at least 16,000 people have died from the flu.
We do not yet have a vaccine for the coronavirus. We do not yet have easy, readily available testing for the coronavirus.
If 16,000 people can die in a few months from a virus for which we have a vaccine and easy testing, how many could die from a virus for which we do NOT have a vaccine and easy testing?
Thanks for posting.
Perhaps they should start a Dufus Denier Ping list?
More like Concerned Trolls.
Leading Causes of Death
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017
And how many Corona virus deaths so far?
“U didnt read the article.”
—
People often don’t like to read things that might make them feel uncomfortable. It’s a “facts be damned” emotional defense mechanism - “what I don’t know can’t hurt me.”
... Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
........
Not contagious. Try again.
What are they teaching in schools these days??
I'm available to do that if needed. I love carbon. Make petroleum great again!
Let's use some actual data...
As I wrote elsewhere, you'll notice that early on, the rate of growth is quite high. And then, the growth rate tails off and it eventually stops. This is the second half of the curve that the "its exponential, bro" hyperbolists forget.
Now, reasonable people can debate and discuss WHY this curve flattens out - that is, why the lily pads don't eventually overtake the pond. The reality is that while the INHERENT R0 may be greater than 1, once controls are put in place the RESIDUAL R0 is less than 1. In other words, R0 isn't constant...or, more precisely, INHERENT R0 + CONTROLS < 1.
The daily rate of growth in confirmed cases in the US has averaged 43% for all of March; it was 11% prior to March. Therefore, if I consider this chart and project the US confirmed cases as a function of today's count and the rate of growth in Hubei (if you believe their data) from the end of January (which is similar to the US growth rate today), it's likely the US could see 40.5k confirmed cases in one month (April 13).
But then, something wonderful happens. The controls kick in (as they did in Hubei, where the daily growth rate of new cases - if you believe the data - fell below 5% starting on Valentine's Day) and then the curve will flatten out.
Now, 40.5k cases out of 329MM people isn't bad - it is 0.012% of the nation. It is a LARGE number, to be sure, but it is smaller than the entire 67,786 case count for Hubei and the zillions of cases promoted by several 'experts' and resident hysterics.
Now, certainly you'd expect with the entire nation being in lockdown, people obsessively washing hands and elbow bumping, and shifting their entertainment from bar hopping to Netflix streaming, it is possible the 40.5k count may be lower. However, it's fair to ask - is shutting down EVERYTHING a reasonable control? They didn't do it with SARS and we lived...notwithstanding this isn't SARS, IS the impending vaporization of the economy worth it?
Here you go.
You’re a good candidate for the Homer Award.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psvHOtycHsY
"This is a Pearl Harbor moment for our country."
When Americans come together as one people, we can accomplish ANYTHING!
We are the people who conquered the evil Nazi and Japanese Empires, who conquered polio, who conquered the difficulties of placing a man on the moon, who conquered slavery, who conquered the untamed wilderness and created the greatest nation the world has ever known!
Ignore the voices of darkness! Ignore the yahoos and the ordure that they hurl! Ignore the attempts of the malevolent to divide Americans! Ignore those who would exploit the present crisis for their own benefit!
Together we will prevail over this pandemic--and anything else fate throws at us!
Over a hundred die from opioids evert day
Thousands die from abortion every day
And those deaths are preventable but not even a media concern
Agree wholeheartedly that flattening the curve will enable successful treatment of more people as the hospital resources for the really sick will be more available. Meanwhile more and more of the population that doesn’t need hospital treatment to recover means more people are “immunized” by surviving the disease and will not be contagious after their recovery. Price to be paid short term with inherently long term effects on the economy, tradeoffs have to be made - but at the end of the day more people are alive. The next two weeks are likely critical to understanding how effective different measures are working across the country, e.g., closing schools in OH vs keeping them open in NY.
There are likely some who would like to see the worst case scenario - 10% of the population over 80 years old and a lesser but still significant percentage of those 60-80 gone in the next couple of months. Social Security problem solved. Plus they would blame Trump.
Further data that we are missing is the seroconversion rate which is of paramount importance. The South Korea numbers suggest that the actual transmitted rate if 5% (Cases (+) / Cases Tested in a highly dense area) and of that the mortalit rate is 0.7% making the population death rate 0.035%.
I saw a thread up the screen a little ways from the concerned doctors who continue to state that this is 10x more fatal than influenza and 8 x more fatal if under 60. I am not sure those numbers track.
Since the beginning we have been told that the "vast majority of cases" will be completely asymptomatic or mild and self limited. This must mean that the N of cases is significantly higher than we have recorded which makes all the current models the worst case scenario
Even in the most vulnerable of age group if you believe the 15% death rate --this means 85% of patients recover. In other words -- the vast majority of even the most endangered population recover
But we do not talk about the facts. And the economic damage is not justified based on these facts. I agree with you entirely, and am glad there is someone who thinks logically and according to facts. My guess? By May 1, back to business as usual. Then the historians can weigh in
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