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The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
New York Times ^ | March 13, 2020 | Sheri Fink

Posted on 03/13/2020 7:15:22 AM PDT by daniel1212

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month... Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; Education; Food; Gardening; Health/Medicine; History; Outdoors; Pets/Animals; Religion; Science; Society; Sports; Travel
KEYWORDS: apocalypse; coronavirus; covid19; paranoia; skyisfalling
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To: rmichaelj

Woo hoo! Finally some reason to push for Global Warming. I’m going out and firing up my lawn mower right now. And then I’m going to save up to buy a lactose intolerant cow.


61 posted on 03/13/2020 8:25:04 AM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: Texas Eagle

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-deaths-washington-nursing-home-outbreak-2020-3


62 posted on 03/13/2020 8:25:24 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: dowcaet
I’m gonna stick to reading books and binge watching shows on Hulu for the foreseeable future, rather than check the headlines and posts here on FEAR Republic! Honestly, it’s getting to the point where some of you FEARPERS are no better than the fear mongers in the MSM! I can go to DU or the NYT websites for this. I thought we could avoid most of that here. Guess not!

You seem to only be reading the headline, and presume that reporting what the MSM asserts means affirmation of it, while I actually laboriously worked, by the grace of God. to place what is reported in perspective as a % of the population, and as compared with deaths by the Flu.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in U.S ., highest death toll in 40 years

63 posted on 03/13/2020 8:32:38 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: Vermont Lt

I can almost believe these numbers reading that Americans are either too stupid or arrogant to stay in quarantine.

In Taiwan they fit people with ankle monitors and fine them $1 million NT (US $ 30,000) if they break curfew.


64 posted on 03/13/2020 8:33:12 AM PDT by oldasrocks (Heavily Medicated for your Protection.)
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To: daniel1212

Stupid speculation on a stupid premise. The death toll will be 45 to 320,000,000. Trying to pin it down is a fools errand and inflaming panic. Lets deal with reality and not waste time speculating.


65 posted on 03/13/2020 8:33:25 AM PDT by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: The Accused
Most of the deaths in Washington were from one nursing home. It’s not good to extrapolate that data to the whole population.

Correct: Thank you for that info: 19 coronavirus deaths tied to Washington nursing home Will note that in the updated table .

66 posted on 03/13/2020 8:34:44 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: webheart

Fear Republic

This is what it’s turning in to. Now we’re posting stories from such credible sites as the NYT. The NYT loves Trump. Oh wait. They hate him so much, that they would promote anything that would damage him and his followers.


67 posted on 03/13/2020 8:35:27 AM PDT by TheRake
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To: desertsolitaire
All schools closing in Michigan Monday, many started today. This is not the flu.

But what if the Flu killed 80,000 Americans, would the response be the same?

68 posted on 03/13/2020 8:36:54 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: desertsolitaire

Houston ISD closed until Mar 30, or until further notice.


69 posted on 03/13/2020 8:38:36 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.cuase)
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To: a fool in paradise

“How few are possible?”

They don’t want to report that.


70 posted on 03/13/2020 8:43:17 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Texas Eagle
How is it different from the flu?

The Flu "only" killed 80,000 (2018), while so far CV-19 has slain its 40.

71 posted on 03/13/2020 8:43:21 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: RasterMaster
Chart is probably outdated.

By one day.

72 posted on 03/13/2020 8:44:11 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: The Accused

“The number of deaths in the US has barely moved in two weeks. It’s not exponential and it’s not even linear. I’m calling bs.”

And the majority are related to the old people homes in Seattle.


73 posted on 03/13/2020 8:45:02 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: webheart
I agree with you. Fear Republic sounds like an apt description

Please see my response in post 63.

74 posted on 03/13/2020 8:45:27 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: TheRake

Fear Republic

This is what it’s turning in to. Now we’re posting stories from such credible sites as the NYT.

==

Which outlets are you trusting, these days?

Here’s a quick sampling of a few conservative websites/news outlets...with their top stories....maybe they need to change THEIR names, too....geez....

https://www.breitbart.com

Report: Brazil’s Bolsonaro Tests Positive for Coronavirus

TRUDEAU’S WIFE CONFIRMED CASE… ’FEELING WELL’

DOZENS IN IRANIAN GOVT—INCLUDING SENIOR VP AND 2 CABINET MEMBERS

EXPERT: U.S. REJECTED FOREIGN TESTING KITS DUE TO 48% FALSE NEGATIVE RATE

https://townhall.com

President Trump to Hold a Press Conference Friday on Wuhan Coronavirus

Top Expert: Actually, Yes, Trump’s New Travel Restrictions Are Helpful

Brazil President Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Family From Coronavirus: Hands, Health and Household

Marina Medvin
Toilet Paper: The Chinese Giveth And The Chinese Taketh Away!

Chris Stigall
Is Anyone Asking Questions During Coronavirus?

David Limbaugh
Biden’s ‘Charming’ Rudeness and Instability

Pat Buchanan
Will the Coronavirus Kill the New World Order?

https://www.washingtontimes.com

Communist China’s propaganda arm blames coronavirus on U.S. Army

Masters golf tournament postponed amid coronavirus outbreak

‘Social distancing’: Americans scatter as coronavirus spreads without treatment or vaccine

MORE TOP NEWS
What the mainstream media isn’t telling you about Trump’s reelection bid

Coronavirus leads to mass sports cancellations; many events ‘can’t be replaced’

Another bloodbath on Wall Street as coronavirus spreads alarm through economy

Biden unveils coronavirus response plan, blasts Trump administration

How Democratic candidates would handle the coronavirus crisis


75 posted on 03/13/2020 8:48:14 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.cuase)
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To: daniel1212

Don’t go introducing details into the hysteria.


76 posted on 03/13/2020 8:48:54 AM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all -- Texas Eagle)
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To: daniel1212

Virus denier!!!


77 posted on 03/13/2020 8:49:16 AM PDT by gogeo (The left prides themselves on being tolerant, but they can't even be civil.)
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To: a fool in paradise

Sorry, but this “Worst Case” isn’t even close to right.

If 20 Million Americans get this disease in a short timeframe, and 10-15% require hospitalization thats 2- 3 Million, and if most of those need ventilators/respirators, only about 100k of them will get them, because thats the rough count of how many there are total in the US...

So, if you had a quick and rapid explosion of 20 Million cases in a brief time frame, expect death counts in the 2 Million+ range.


78 posted on 03/13/2020 8:49:17 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: daniel1212
All schools closing in Michigan Monday, many started today. This is not the flu. But what if the Flu killed 80,000 Americans, would the response be the same?

Do you understand what's going on? The federal government is ordering all these closures behind the scenes. To avoid panic they are having states and businesses announce them themselves. They are trying to avoid the worst case scenario...which with this virus is a whole bunch of people getting critically ill at the same time and overwhelming the medical system.

This is not the flu. It's deadlier than the flu. It causes more critical illness than the flu and it's more virulent than the flu.

79 posted on 03/13/2020 8:49:18 AM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: daniel1212

Illegals kill more Americans every year.
Non-citizens accounted for 24 percent of all federal drug arrests, 25 percent of all federal property arrests, and 28 percent of all federal fraud arrests.
Like a foreign virus they should not be here.
These crimes should have never happened.
They would not have happened if they were not here.


80 posted on 03/13/2020 8:52:52 AM PDT by Leep (Everyday is Trump Day!)
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