The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

New York Times ^ | March 13, 2020 | Sheri Fink

[daniel1212]

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month... Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

[daniel1212]

Now if they can only link this to Climate Change, and abortion rights... Supplementary:

COVID-19 cases as of 3-12-20 compared with 2018 death rates for the Flu.

While COVID-19 has hardly competed its run, yet for comparison with the Flu, although I cannot find the stats for the number of cases of flu per state for this season, yet I did find the morality rate for the flu per state in 2018, which I have added to the table below, as well as the latest morality count for COVID-19. Additional stats on the 201902020 Flu season are provided below the the table.

“The Centers for Disease Control predicts at least 12,000 people will die from the flu in the US every year. In the 2017-2018 flu season, as many as 61,000 people died, and 45 million were sickened. In the 2019-2020 season so far, at least 26 million people in the US have gotten the flu and at least 14,000 people have died from it, including at least 92 children. Flu activity has been widespread in nearly every region, with high levels of activity in 48 states and Puerto Rico, the CDC reported this week.” (https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html)

Meanwhile, the NYT today (3-13) sounds this alarm: “Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html)

Below is a list of states per currently reported COVID-19 infections (by CNN, of 3-12-20) in comparison with population size (note that variations in reported cases are partly be due to how comprehensive testing can and has been done). Use an online calculator here, (see second row under “Percentage Calculator in Common Phrases,” and remove commas in population figure) for cases as a percent of population.

In any case, I pray all this, real or inflated, works to bring souls to realize the need for help from above, for repentance and mercy from God through faith in the risen Lord Jesus.

State	Population	COVID-19 cases	Percent of infections by capita	Deaths from COVID-19 (as of 3-12-20)	Deaths from Flu in 2018 (last available data from CDC)
Washington	7,614,893	373		31	930
New York	19,453,561	216			4,749
California	39,512,223	139		4	6,917
Massachusetts	6,949,503	95			1,441
Colorado	5,758,736	33			568
Georgia	10,617,423	31		1	1,530
Florida	21,477,737	29		2	3.091
Illinois	12,671,821	25			2,564
New Jersey	8,882,190	23		1	1,465
Texas	28,995,881	21			3,516
Oregon	4,217,737	19			530
Pennsylvania	12,801,989	15			2,887
Iowa	3,155,070	14			697
Louisiana	4,648,794	14			824
Maryland	6,045,680	12			973
North Carolina	10,488,084	11			2,064
District of Columbia	705,749	10			N/A
Indiana	6,732,219	10			1,118
Nebraska	1,934,408	10			394
South Carolina	5,148,714	10			882
Wisconsin	5,822,434	10			1,075
Arizona	7,278,717	9			1,116
Virginia	8,535,519	9			1.283
Kentucky	4,467,673	8			969
South Dakota	884,659	8		1	245
Nevada	3,080,156	7			527
Tennessee	6,833,174	7			1,646
Minnesota	5,639,632	5			698
New Hampshire	1,359,711	5			265
Rhode Island	1,059,361	5			192
New Mexico	2,096,829	4			365
Ohio	11,689,100	4			2,395
Connecticut	3,565,287	3			757
Utah	3,205,958	3			353
Hawaii	1,415,872	2			542
Michigan	9,986,857	2			1,869
Oklahoma	3,956,971	2			809
Vermont	623,989	2			87
Arkansas	3,017,825	1			670
Delaware	973,764	1			167
Kansas	2,913,314	1			630
Mississippi	2,976,149	1			910
Missouri	6,137,428	1			1,477
North Dakota	762,062	1			152
Wyoming	578,759	1			128
Alabama	4,903,185	0			1,268
Idaho	1,792,065	0			235
West Virginia	1,787,147	0			539
Maine	1,344,212	0			312
Montana	1,068,778	0			152
Alaska	731,545	0			68

As for the 2019-2020 Flu season:

2019-2020 Season Cumulative Rate per 100,000 Population
Overall	57.9
0-4 years	84.9
5-17 years	21.6
18-49 years	31.2
50-64 years	76.1
65+ years	147.5

Among 2,528 hospitalized adults with information on underlying medical conditions, 91.9% had at least one reported underlying medical condition, the most commonly reported were cardiovascular disease, metabolic disorder, obesity, and chronic lung disease. Among 443 hospitalized children with information on underlying medical conditions, 48.5% had at least one underlying medical condition; the most commonly reported was asthma. Among 427 hospitalized women of childbearing age (15-44 years) with information on pregnancy status, 25.8% were pregnant. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap)

Outpatient Illness: ILINet Visits to health care providers for influenza-like illness (ILI) decreased from 5.5% last week to 5.3% this week. All regions remain above their baselines.

HospitalizationsThe overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 57.9 per 100,000.

P&I Mortality The percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 6.9%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%.

Pediatric Deaths 11 influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019-2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 136. - https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

[a fool in paradise]

As many as 200k-1.2m

How few are possible?

[MtnClimber]

In the first line they forgot to remind readers that it is Trump’s fault.

[RoseofTexas]

BS!!! China got what it wanted!! ✅ china-1 ...stupid American gullible idiots -0!! DON'T EVER EVER TRUST THE MEDIAVOMITS!! EVER!!! I guess we haven't learned anything from these past 3 years..so infuriating sad!!

[Autonomous User]

“Worst case” outcomes will be promoted by the media as
“Most Likely Case”. To feed the mass hysteria.

[babble-on]

Given there’s so few test kits available, is it not likely that the figures for COVID19 are understated by using official test numbers?

Some might even say that’s been the strategy.

[The Accused]

The number of deaths in the US has barely moved in two weeks. It’s not exponential and it’s not even linear. I’m calling bs.

The worst case scenario, of course, is actually everyone dies. The most likely scenario is a few hundred to a few thousand at most. The NYT is just feeding into the mass global hysteria.

[nascarnation]

I’m curious.
What does it take to manufacture a test kit?
Is it something that once the technique is developed and the machines are programmed, they are mass produced?
Or is this craft work?

[Texas Eagle]

I don't know. I'm suspicious that California has 5 times the population of Washington but less than half as many cases with far fewer deaths. I think there's some lying or fudging of numbers somewhere but I don't know in which direct.

Plus, California has a far lower mortality rate. What are we doing differently than Washington?

[gibsonguy]

“Worst case” outcomes will be promoted by the media as
“Most Likely Case”

Exactly, including Freerepublic’s own fear merchant RummyChick.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Given there’s so few test kits available, is it not likely that the figures for COVID19 are understated by using official test numbers?

Some might even say that’s been the strategy.

I distrust strategy as the driver of government actions or inactions - incompetence and bureaucratic arrogance are always the more likely explanations.

[italianquaker]

Miraculously will end the day after the election, plz nonsense

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Plus, California has a far lower mortality rate. What are we doing differently than Washington?

You got an outbreak of the coronavirus in a nursing home, among the elderly - those most likely to succumb to any strong virus.

[cba123]

Bunk.

The totals have been rising every day.

Significantly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[The Accused]

Most of the deaths in Washington were from one nursing home. It’s not good to extrapolate that data to the whole population.

[goodnesswins]

ALL schools closing in Oregon on Monday...

[wardaddy]

I would expect you to be reasonable about this bullshit I’m glad I’m not disappointed 👍

[daniel1212]

China got what it wanted!!

Actually, while not much given to conspiracy theories, if this virus was bio-engineered by China, it would make sense as part of their strategy to prevent 4 more years of President Trump whom they surely hate, since they know that the economy fosters his reelection. And with the current Democrat field, desperate measures would be called for. However, we have no proof this, although their recourse to blaming the American military for the Wuhan outbreak to very defensive.

[olepap]

Fear not! Evil media trying to crash the market and get a Democrat elected in November. It will be OK.

[kabar]

You should only test those who are symptomatic. We can’t test 330 million people. And a test is only a snapshot in time. You could be negative one day and positive the next. It also could give those who test negative a false sense of security. People are panicking thanks to our political leadership and the MSM. TDS is driving most of it.