Posted on 02/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PST by DouglasKC
I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.
From the CDC website
Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:
2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.
The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.
Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%
The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...
Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.
How can you compare Chinese death rates to America. I believe he was saying with proper HC the rates would be similar or lower than the common flu.
It may have a lot more to do with sanitation practices than anything else in it’s spreading and mortality rate.
Keep in mind that the sanitation practices in Asian countries is still pretty primitive and that is a big factor. I.e. they don’t have western toilet methods.
i thought the world mortality rate is 100%?
Worldwide
2708÷80407=0.03367866 or 3.367866%
Doing the same for the more modern, honest countries gives you.
I've had the flu many times but have never gone to the doctor. Hong Kong has had less than 100 cases. Too small of a sample for accuracy. Looking at the numbers, a lot have not recovered yet. We're not going to know the fatality rate until it's all said and done, plus, many people will get it, get over it and not be part of the statistics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mortality_from_H5N1
They break it down by country and it caries wildly. Canada had a 100% mortality rate. One person got it and dies. The average was 52.8% and we're no where near that. It mostly hit third world countries too.
The case-fatality rate is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of case-fatality (CF) rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 20% (1918 pandemic); the official World Health Organization estimate for the current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza to date is around 60%.
Too early to tell and comparisons don't work. Conditions in 1918 were quite different than today and so were 1957/1968 really. Also keep in mind, people go to the hospital when they feel like they're gonna die so the numbers are always going to be higher than what's known. On the flip side, people die and the official diagnosis is never known, especially with old people. With the flu, most people don't die from it. They die when the flu turns into pneumonia.
Not that I fully trust Italy’s socialized medicine. Even if you factor in their percentage, it still hovers around 1.5%. But again, treatment is coming soon. It will likely cut the mortality rate substantially.
Two patients took the drug and were cured in two days. It is very promising.
For south korea 10 divided by 977 = .01 or 1%. And that's a country with great healthcare.
True that more people have died from the flu. In this country.
However only a few people in this country have had the coronavirus. So far.
Let’s check back on mortality/morbidity rates for coronavirus in this country in a year or two...
Currently unclear what the actual rates are.
1. Transmission rate is high. R0 value of 3-5 or more (basically how many people each infected will in turn infect).
2. Death rate is not trivial. At best it’s comparable to flu ... but it’s not flu, the attack vector is different & unclear, and deaths will be in addition to an already significant flu death rate. Another 80,000 dead is bad.
3. You should be prepared. Not hard to have 3 months’ supply of food etc on hand. If you’re not ready NOW, you’re not ready. Be ready for the worst case, because it’s not a matter of your opinion.
Ditto that...........
I don't think the real problem is how many die but how many will get sick and overwhelm the healthcare system. Could be nothing could be something but it's a brand new virus to humanity and it's in the wild.
Rush mentioned the cruise ship that was quarantined with the virus. How many have died? Zero.
And I have a medical background..fwiw-
100% in agreement. We've seen virtually every other country where it's taken root institute pretty drastic quarantines. If ONLY that happens here it's only prudent to have enough to ride it out.
What?
He using the 2 or 3 percent mortality rate (2 to 3 percent AS REPORTED by China that get the virus died) and comparing it against the flu saying that the rate for the flu is "much higher". However he never supplied the mortality rate for the flu. In fact from the sources I've seen it's less than 1% worldwide.
Good point.
So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu,
No, "population" is not the same as "people that get the flu". A little bit of work with Google will tell you that the death rate (per infected) from the flu is in the neighborhood of 0.13 %. That's not 0.002%, but it's a lot lower than coronavirus at >2%.
You are comparing a country with good public cleanliness measures and a culture of cleanliness (except for inner cities run by criminal DIMs/Leftists) with countries that have little or no public health standards and cultures that have a very low standard of personal cleanliness...if any. I call major BS. Where are your pearls? Clutch them.
“My point is ease of transmission may be more important than mortality rate in how many die and how far it spreads.”
Bingo! We have Bingo!
Containment is key. Containment inhibits transmission.
12% of 80,000 is a relatively small number. That’s the Chinese city of Wuhan right now, assuming no new cases and all of the confirmed cases that have yet to resolve survive. And, yes, the Chinese numbers are BS, but we can extrapolate from those that there is a limit after which control is lost and you need 40 industrial incinerators because running your 49 crematorium incinerators 24/7 burns them out and you just can’t keep up.
2% of everybody is a much larger number. But if it gets out (it’s already out, but not everywhere, yet) it won’t just be 2% - the medical system will soon be overwhelmed, and it will be 12%. And collateral deaths as everybody else gets squeezed out of the medical care system. Most modern countries can handle a few hundred or even a few thousand cases and save that extra 10% of the afflicted. But not once it gets to be much higher numbers
So let’s all do what we can to keep this contained as long and well as possible. Putting out one fire at a time is a lot easier than putting out the whole world on fire. And unless you’re an idiot, that means preparing in case you find yourself in a quarantine zone.
Huh? .4% to 1% rate is horrible.
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