Rush is WRONG- Death Rate Flu vs. Corona Virus

vanity | 2/25/20 | Self

[DouglasKC]

I love Rush but he has stated several time today that the death rate of Corona virus is LESS than the death rate of influenza. This is just flat out wrong.

From the CDC website

Mortality rate of influenza: Deaths per 100,000 population: 2.

So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it. What is the mortality rate percentage?:

2 (the number of deaths) divided by 100,000 = .00002, or .002%.

The estimated mortality rate of corona (which he is basing on the number out of China = 2-3%.

Death rate of flu= .002%
Death rate of Corona = 2%

The death rate of corona is a THOUSAND times greater than the flu...and that's assuming that we used Chinese numbers. Using IRAN number the death rate is 15%...

Rush MIGHT be referring to the fact that the flu can kill up to 80,000 americans in a year. But that's only because there's a LOT more people infected with various flu viruses. When as many people are infected by the corona virus then there would be an accurate comparison.

[Theoria]

'South Korea, 10 deaths out of 977. Cruise ship 3 out of 691. Japan 1 out 170.'

Those numbers are very high. You wouldn't fly with such odds or drive a car around.

[setter]

Rush has 3 strikes against him getting this virus

1. Age
2. Smoker
3. Compromised by lung cancer

[MNJohnnie]

You are wrong, you have no clue what you are talking about. Rather then cling to your hysteria, learn something or are you claiming you hysteric chicken little know better then the CDC?

While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

[Uncle Miltie]

The lowest number I’ve seen for concluded cases is about 2.0%. Higher numbers go up from there, lots in the 3, 4, 5% range. I’ve seen numbers up to 15%.

There are no stats of concluded cases that show <2% that I have seen.

2.00% for corona v. 0.02% for flu. One thousand times more lethal.

[nascarnation]

Sounds like this will fix the Soc Sec and Medicare budget problems over the next couple years....

[DouglasKC]

You are wrong, you have no clue what you are talking about. Rather then cling to your hysteria, learn something or are you claiming you hysteric chicken little know better then the CDC? While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

We are talking about MORTALITY RATE. Using YOUR figures in the USA if we 45 million illnesses (people who get the flu) PER YEAR for ten years that 450,000,000 that get the flu.

450,000,000 infected over 10 years.

If an average of 61,000 die per year for 10 years that 610,000 dead.

610,000 divided by 450,000,000 = .00135 or .135%.

So in the US assuming your number or 10 years the mortality RATE of the flu is ONLY .135% far less than the MOST conservative mortality rates for corona.

[calenel]

Or it could be that the rest of the world has had more lead time than the Chinese and containment efforts have slowed down the spread. However, to your distance argument - Italy is closer to the USA than to China, but everywhere is pretty close to everywhere these days.

Containment is key. It gives us time to develop countermeasures and takes some of the load off of our medical infrastructure. But each time containment fails it puts stress on the rest of the containment efforts.

We’ll see what happens in Italy and S. Korea, where we at least have a chance of getting reliable information. Right now, Italy has more deaths (7) than recovered (1), with 275 unresolved cases. S. Korea is better, with 10 deaths and 22 recovered and 945 unresolved cases. But even if there are no more cases and everyone currently infected recovers, those are still significant mortality rates.

[luvie]

I've been listening and yellling NO NO NO!

I actually sent him a link to AgendaFreeTV's latest stream that documents the spread of the coronavirus in great detail. He needs to watch it. We all do. The broadcaster, Steve Lookner, is very conscientious about researching and confirming sources before reporting them...unlike most of the MSM.

[JeanLM]

Whether or not MERS and SARS are flu they were touted as world class scourges and didn’t create the kind of hysteria this one has. Mortality rates for those two are much higher.

My point is ease of transmission may be more important than mortality rate in how many die and how far it spreads.

[luvie]

He also said it was nothing more than the common cold. VERY uninformed on this subject.

[DouglasKC]

Look at it another way. IF 450,000,000 people get the corona virus and the mortality rate is just 2% then that would mean over 9 MILLION dead in 10 years from corona virus.

Flu over 10 years kills 610,000.
Corona over 10 years kills 9,000,000.

[DoodleBob]

I went through this a while ago for the benefit of others, but maybe it's time for a refresher course.

There are TWO different rates being quoted, which can be wildly different but that is because of their context.

The Case Fatality Rate (or Case Fatality Ratio or CFR) is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

The Mortality Rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1,000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total.

Thus, for coronavirus, let's assume there are 77,660 confirmed cases of, and 2,663 deaths due to coronavirus in Mainland China. Let's also assume (and sidestep the debate over accuracy) there are 1.3bn people in Mainland China and 200 million under quarantine. With these numbers, depending upon the context, you can get these figures:

Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 1.3bn or 0.0002% or 0.2 people per 100,000 (the context is all of Mainland China)

Mortality Rate of 2,663 / 200MM or 0.0013% or 1.33 people per 100,000 (conxtex is the Rate is conditional upon the people being under quarantine)

CFR of 2,663 / 77660 or 3.4% at this time in Mainland China, without any correction for recovery/"being cured" or timing mismatch (i.e. Not all people in numerator and denominator have been infected or dead for the same amount of time - that would require a cohort analysis).

I am not a biostatistician nor do I play one on TV. But this knowledge should serve you well during this saga.

[citizen]

From your CDC figures:
61,000 deaths/45,000,000 illnesses = 0.0013% fatality rate from illnesses.

So, yes, the CV mortality rate appears to be far worse.

[luvie]

See post #108 for informative reporting on the coronavirus.

[DouglasKC]

Whether or not MERS and SARS are flu they were touted as world class scourges and didn’t create the kind of hysteria this one has. Mortality rates for those two are much higher. My point is ease of transmission may be more important than mortality rate in how many die and how far it spreads.

I agree with that. This corona seems to be very virulent. But I also think that mortality rate is being grossly underestimated.

[agatheringstorm]

You misunderstood the CD statistic regarding mortality rate from influenza. The 2 deaths in 100,000 population does not mean 2 deaths out of 100,000 people infected with influenza, it means out of 100,000 people in the entire US population, 2 people died from influenza.

Having said that, those statistics don’t look right, even compared with other CDC pages. Compare it to this:

“CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1).”

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

[calenel]

“How many on the Japanese cruise ship died?”

At least 3, so somewhere around 0.5% or so of the confirmed cases. But most of the cases remain unresolved at this point, I believe.

[al baby]

I think he was way better back when he was on dope

[BushCountry]

So, people can see the math. It is not by any stretch of the imagination a 1000 times worse than the flu.

South Korea, 10 deaths out of 977. (.01)
Cruise ship 3 out of 691. (.004)
Japan 1 out 170. (.005)

[ml/nj]

So the CDC says that for every 100,000 people that get the flu, 2 of them will die from it.

Not quite!

Not everyone gets the flu. Of those that did last year in the US, about one in a 1000 died from it.

ML/NJ