Posted on 01/30/2020 5:30:37 AM PST by dangus
Three days ago, the Chinese government reported 1,771 new cases. That was a surge from the previous day, when they reported 769 new cases. So, when the number of new cases fell two days ago to 1,459, it seemed that perhaps that surge was perhaps an artifact of reporting. For instance, maybe some sources had been quicker in reporting new cases than they had been previously. But they yesterday, the number of new cases remained below that peak, 1,732.
Clearly, the epidemic still represents a grave threat. It would be insane to declare the crisis over. But since the news media reports chiefly hysteria and alarmism, I thought it very worthwhile to point some balancing data.
How long does it take to die?
As a corollary to your question, I ask what actually kills?
Corona virus or the resultant associated pneumonia?
Early reports said that pneumonia killed those infected with corona virus
I’m seeing a growth of about 30% daily coming out of China, both in cases and in deaths...for what it’s worth.
The newly reported for each day since Jan 20th is not accurate due to some of the new infected were infected before Jan 20th. The initial surge of infected was from the cases before Jan 20th as the data collection system came online.
Summary we should see a drop in daily new cases because they are caught up reporting the old cases from before Jan 20th. The next 15 days will give us an ideal how fast this is spreading. Do not pay attention to the first 10 days.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional data collector, just a programmer. I could be wrong, correct me if I am wrong. I will not be offended.
Any data coming from China is suspect. They refused help from CDC. What are they hiding?
Can you really believe the numbers being released by the Chinese government? Yet in any epidemic, population genetics is key to understand the susceptibility, communicability and virulence of any given pathogen. Thus far ( and its very politically incorrect to note) Asiatics seem to have the genetic susceptibility this particular coronavirus. Ultimately genetic susceptibility will determine if most non Asian Americans are at risk.
The virus can cause a severe VIRAL pneumonia. Thats whats caused most of the deaths.
‘Cytokine storm’ pneumonia.
In China it looks like about 20% of those infected need ICU beds for weeks.
Hope we have lots of those ICU beds.
(and pray it doesn’t come here might be better than that even!)
I would say the numbers are tailored. For all the business that mainland China does on ebay, this current sickness problem is going to affect their online sales, A LOT, and with mardi gras season, all the throws that are made over there, could potentially carry this virus.
Pneumonia......
Get your pneumonia shots!
Nope.
Not that kind of pneumonia.
Most of the dead seem to have died from secondary infection with microbes not in our pneumonia shot’s repetoire. Like C. Albicans and others.
Their lungs fill up, look like ground glass on X-rays, and many of them are asymptomatic (no fever or any symptoms) right up until they pass out from lack of oxygen.
It can be spread for a week, or more, prior to this. It’s spread many days prior to symptoms appearing, unlike most other respiratory diseases.
I’d avoid ebay and amazon packages shipped from china.
It can live on surfaces at LEAST 5 days.
Im glad you posted that. Since Chinese numbers are not to be trusted, it may be a week or two further ahead of the dates given...
As long as you aren’t so repeatedly wrong that your mistakes are traditions.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Excellent link. According to the blog explaining that dashboard:
https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/
“The case data visualized is collected from various sources, including WHO, U.S. CDC, ECDC China CDC (CCDC), NHC and DXY. DXY is a Chinese website that aggregates NHC and local CCDC situation reports in near real-time, providing more current regional case estimates than the national level reporting organizations are capable of, and is thus used for all the mainland China cases reported in our dashboard (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths).”
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