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Coronavirus exiting exponential growth phase ALREADY?
observation based on China's National Health Commission daily reports | 2019-01-29 | Dangus

Posted on 01/30/2020 5:30:37 AM PST by dangus

Three days ago, the Chinese government reported 1,771 new cases. That was a surge from the previous day, when they reported 769 new cases. So, when the number of new cases fell two days ago to 1,459, it seemed that perhaps that surge was perhaps an artifact of reporting. For instance, maybe some sources had been quicker in reporting new cases than they had been previously. But they yesterday, the number of new cases remained below that peak, 1,732.

Clearly, the epidemic still represents a grave threat. It would be insane to declare the crisis over. But since the news media reports chiefly hysteria and alarmism, I thought it very worthwhile to point some balancing data.


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KEYWORDS: coronavirus; exponential
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1 posted on 01/30/2020 5:30:37 AM PST by dangus
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To: dangus

How long does it take to die?


2 posted on 01/30/2020 5:34:15 AM PST by DIRTYSECRET (urope. Why do they put up with this.)
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To: dangus
Johns Hopkins reports 7783 total cases, with 7678 of those on Mainland China.
3 posted on 01/30/2020 5:35:50 AM PST by Monitor ("The urge to save humanity is almost always a false-front for the urge to rule it." - H. L. Mencken)
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To: DIRTYSECRET

As a corollary to your question, I ask what actually kills?

Corona virus or the resultant associated pneumonia?

Early reports said that pneumonia killed those infected with corona virus


4 posted on 01/30/2020 5:40:29 AM PST by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
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To: dangus

I’m seeing a growth of about 30% daily coming out of China, both in cases and in deaths...for what it’s worth.


5 posted on 01/30/2020 5:41:35 AM PST by BobL (I eat at McDonald's and shop at Walmart - I just don't tell anyone.)
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To: dangus
Over ? Not in Singapore:

3 new cases confirmed in Singapore, bringing tally to 13

6 posted on 01/30/2020 5:42:22 AM PST by 11th_VA
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To: All

The newly reported for each day since Jan 20th is not accurate due to some of the new infected were infected before Jan 20th. The initial surge of infected was from the cases before Jan 20th as the data collection system came online.

Summary we should see a drop in daily new cases because they are caught up reporting the old cases from before Jan 20th. The next 15 days will give us an ideal how fast this is spreading. Do not pay attention to the first 10 days.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional data collector, just a programmer. I could be wrong, correct me if I am wrong. I will not be offended.


7 posted on 01/30/2020 5:45:48 AM PST by DEPcom
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To: dangus

Any data coming from China is suspect. They refused help from CDC. What are they hiding?


8 posted on 01/30/2020 5:51:36 AM PST by AU72
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To: Monitor

Can you really believe the numbers being released by the Chinese government? Yet in any epidemic, population genetics is key to understand the susceptibility, communicability and virulence of any given pathogen. Thus far ( and its very politically incorrect to note) Asiatics seem to have the genetic susceptibility this particular coronavirus. Ultimately genetic susceptibility will determine if most non Asian Americans are at risk.


9 posted on 01/30/2020 5:56:14 AM PST by allendale (.)
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To: DEPcom
just a programmer. I could be wrong, correct me if I am wrong

as an unrelated aside, I too, am a programmer, and, usually, I am wrong.

;^)
10 posted on 01/30/2020 5:57:51 AM PST by Karma_Sherab
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To: bert

The virus can cause a severe VIRAL pneumonia. Thats whats caused most of the deaths.


11 posted on 01/30/2020 5:59:21 AM PST by Kozak (DIVERSITY+PROXIMITY=CONFLICT)
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To: bert

‘Cytokine storm’ pneumonia.

In China it looks like about 20% of those infected need ICU beds for weeks.

Hope we have lots of those ICU beds.

(and pray it doesn’t come here might be better than that even!)


12 posted on 01/30/2020 5:59:49 AM PST by Black Agnes
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To: dangus

I would say the numbers are tailored. For all the business that mainland China does on ebay, this current sickness problem is going to affect their online sales, A LOT, and with mardi gras season, all the throws that are made over there, could potentially carry this virus.


13 posted on 01/30/2020 6:00:33 AM PST by Terry L Smith
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To: dangus


This is a projection done last week. Tracking pretty closely. Early days. We'll see....
14 posted on 01/30/2020 6:05:31 AM PST by Kozak (DIVERSITY+PROXIMITY=CONFLICT)
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To: Black Agnes; Kozak

Pneumonia......

Get your pneumonia shots!


15 posted on 01/30/2020 6:06:49 AM PST by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
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To: bert

Nope.

Not that kind of pneumonia.

Most of the dead seem to have died from secondary infection with microbes not in our pneumonia shot’s repetoire. Like C. Albicans and others.

Their lungs fill up, look like ground glass on X-rays, and many of them are asymptomatic (no fever or any symptoms) right up until they pass out from lack of oxygen.

It can be spread for a week, or more, prior to this. It’s spread many days prior to symptoms appearing, unlike most other respiratory diseases.


16 posted on 01/30/2020 6:09:14 AM PST by Black Agnes
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To: Terry L Smith

I’d avoid ebay and amazon packages shipped from china.

It can live on surfaces at LEAST 5 days.


17 posted on 01/30/2020 6:10:00 AM PST by Black Agnes
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To: Kozak

I’m glad you posted that. Since Chinese numbers are not to be trusted, it may be a week or two further ahead of the dates given...


18 posted on 01/30/2020 6:12:15 AM PST by Mr. Jeeves ([CTRL]-[GALT]-[DELETE])
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To: Karma_Sherab

As long as you aren’t so repeatedly wrong that your mistakes are traditions.


19 posted on 01/30/2020 6:16:56 AM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death by cultsther)
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To: Monitor

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Excellent link. According to the blog explaining that dashboard:

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

“The case data visualized is collected from various sources, including WHO, U.S. CDC, ECDC China CDC (CCDC), NHC and DXY. DXY is a Chinese website that aggregates NHC and local CCDC situation reports in near real-time, providing more current regional case estimates than the national level reporting organizations are capable of, and is thus used for all the mainland China cases reported in our dashboard (confirmed, suspected, recovered, deaths).”


20 posted on 01/30/2020 6:22:49 AM PST by edwinland
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