This is a projection done last week. Tracking pretty closely. Early days. We'll see....
How long does it take to die?
I’m seeing a growth of about 30% daily coming out of China, both in cases and in deaths...for what it’s worth.
The newly reported for each day since Jan 20th is not accurate due to some of the new infected were infected before Jan 20th. The initial surge of infected was from the cases before Jan 20th as the data collection system came online.
Summary we should see a drop in daily new cases because they are caught up reporting the old cases from before Jan 20th. The next 15 days will give us an ideal how fast this is spreading. Do not pay attention to the first 10 days.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional data collector, just a programmer. I could be wrong, correct me if I am wrong. I will not be offended.
Any data coming from China is suspect. They refused help from CDC. What are they hiding?
I would say the numbers are tailored. For all the business that mainland China does on ebay, this current sickness problem is going to affect their online sales, A LOT, and with mardi gras season, all the throws that are made over there, could potentially carry this virus.
Just a friendly reminder: We’re all gonna die!
And probably pay taxes in the meantime...
Garbage in, garbage out.
If the Red Chinese can’t count all the victims and are overwhelmed, or is deliberately hiding the extent of the infected, then you won’t have very confident data to calculate on, will you?
We need more accurate numbers to begin with.
I am not trying to jump ugly on you, but we have to consider what is “reported.”
Consider that the patient has to enter the system through a reporting slot.
There are only so many slots to go through. (These might be beds, testing stations, etc.)
What happens when slots are full? What happens to the patients in the queue?
A great deal of my professional life was dealing with queuing problems. The slow growth looks like a queue that is overloaded.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the 1500 new beds are completed next week. This should open more “slots” for the patents to get into the system.
We should also look at the volume in new cities over the coming days.
virus covers all of china ... ccp will never release real numbers any judgments made using Chinese released numbers is worthless