Posted on 01/30/2020 5:30:37 AM PST by dangus
I know the Philippines has 24 confirmed cases and now one death.
Just a friendly reminder: We’re all gonna die!
And probably pay taxes in the meantime...
Garbage in, garbage out.
If the Red Chinese can’t count all the victims and are overwhelmed, or is deliberately hiding the extent of the infected, then you won’t have very confident data to calculate on, will you?
We need more accurate numbers to begin with.
The projection is pretty close, today. But the actual numbers lept ahead of it early and fell behind later. So where the projection uses a rock-steady percentage growth each day, the reality is that it was spreading faster, and has now stopped spreading faster.
My data show a growth in the number of new cases of up to 130%, averaging around 70%, for 9 days... but a peak reached in the number of new cases 3 days ago (no new data for today).
Patients USUALLY pneumonia, or simply heart failure, or pulmonary edema (drowning in secretions, leaking lymph/serum through damaged membranes), but viruses in general can trigger reactions like sympathetic nervous system dystrophy (POTS) very acutely resulting in VERY low blood pressure inadequate to perfuse tissues (brain, heart, gut) with hypoxia and death, and the occasional anaphylactic response which kills through some of the same mechanisms I mentioned.
There are cases of people getting flu (and coronavirus, parainfluenza, RSV, multiple different enteroviruses) just up and dying within hours or a day of contracting the illness due to anaphylactic shock. Anaphylaxis can be as mild as papular or geographic plaque-like hives, or as serious as a reaction as one might get from staphylococcal sepsis.
Deaths from upper respiratory viruses still, in the main, remain in age categories of very young (two or less), the elderly (65 and over), people with generally weakened/impaired immune systems (HIV/AIDS, rheumatological conditions - known or unknown), people with COPD/emphysema, Cystic Fibrosis and other lung conditions which make them more susceptible to secondary bacterial infections and people with heart conditions, or other cardiovascular or kidney disease and more.
Not to argue teleology here, but viruses “want” to survive. There is NO value in killing 100% of your hosts before your progeny are cast into the general population to continue your genetic lineage.
It’s why we’ve never seen a viral lethality rate much into the 90% range. There are natural immunities existing random inborn genetic coding for protective antibodies and other immune response - remember, not everyone responds to immunizations. Some people can get repeated Tetanus vaccines, or smallpox, or measles and NEVER “take”, or develop an immune response, the antigen being presented being unrecognizable through natural selection.
In the cases of China’s deaths, WTFK? I mean, the Chicoms have NEVER been what you call open/honest or responsive to world-wide health concerns, all medical data shared being of dubious quality and accuracy.
Multiple UNofficial reports indicate the number of infected AND the deaths are an order of magnitude higher than are being reported officially, which I don’t doubt.
More than deaths and disability, the BIG worry in a global pandemic such as the Wuhan Corona (said like the Mexican mass murderer of the 1970s) is what is going to happen to interconnected economies.
We might - MIGHT - just be seeing the fulfillment of the ancient Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times.”
Yeah, but wouldn’t it be dumb to PURPOSELY underestimate growth after the whole world is aware? Because then, even after you start winning the battle, you have to adjust your numbers and start the panic all over again.
Thanks for that comprehensive post
Exactly, since millions are quarantined in their homes. How does China count those who are ill and housebound ?
“Just a friendly reminder: We’re all gonna die!
And probably pay taxes in the meantime...”
Forgot we will pay taxes after we die
I am not trying to jump ugly on you, but we have to consider what is “reported.”
Consider that the patient has to enter the system through a reporting slot.
There are only so many slots to go through. (These might be beds, testing stations, etc.)
What happens when slots are full? What happens to the patients in the queue?
A great deal of my professional life was dealing with queuing problems. The slow growth looks like a queue that is overloaded.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the 1500 new beds are completed next week. This should open more “slots” for the patents to get into the system.
We should also look at the volume in new cities over the coming days.
No-one has mentioned the fact that the communist Chinese government have been trying to assert dominance in the region for many years. Combined with the fact they think the sea is theirs around the region. I wouldn’t put it past them that maybe this virus is intended and targeted towards those of Asian persuasion to gain more territory by an invasive deadly virus instead of an armed invasion. We know they don’t care about their citizens so some collateral damage isn’t something they’ll shed a tear about. just my tin foil hat opinion.
I think it’s a lack of testing kits combined with travel restrictions (no public transportation) and now private vehicles are restricted as well.
Patients can’t get to the hospital and those that do can’t be tested for this because, no kits.
Except that they’re crashing their economy, long term, with this.
And it’s spread to non chicoms now.
Thailand has already said they won’t be able to slow it down.
Soon, within a week, stopping Chicoms at the border won’t be enough. We’ll need to stop everyone.
So, you can get a bacterial pneumonia as a complication of the Corona Virus ( or the Flu). So yeah get your Pneumovax.
That won’t prevent the viral pneumonia however.
Chicoms have quarantined 50 million people.
Chicoms also lie.
“Except that they’re crashing their economy, long term, with this.”
You do have a point however I think with the need for Chinese products over the long term due to production costs they still have the upper hand on this. We do not know the long term effects of this yet. We are weeks away from knowing globally how this will affect all economies.
What’s that sound?
The sound of the supply chain being moved out of China...
This will hurt them long term too.
It’s clear they can’t manage something like this.
They arrested 8 doctors in early January for reporting an outbreak of a SARS-like disease.
Yup, shoot the messenger. In this case IIRC they just made them confess to ‘rumor mongering’ on TV and didn’t actually shoot them. But it’s China, there was always that chance...
They did not die of a secondary pneumonia. Most of the dead died from their initial viral pneumonia.
Would that be the 1st reported death outside of china? I see its upto 8235 confirmed 171 dead now.
The risk of the Philippines is its slums. Because they are so poor, their immune systems are compromised. A few deaths in Western nations could be thousands of deaths in the Filipino slums.
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