Posted on 08/15/2019 5:52:14 AM PDT by BenLurkin
An epidemic of African Swine Fever is sweeping through China's hog farms, and the effects are rippling across the globe, because China is a superpower of pork. Half of the world's pigs live in China or at least they did before the epidemic began a year ago.
"Every day, we hear of more outbreaks," says Christine McCracken, a senior analyst at RaboResearch, which is affiliated with the global financial firm Rabobank.
McCracken and her colleagues now estimate that by the end of 2019, China's production of pork could be cut in half. "That's roughly 300 million to 350 million pigs lost in China, which is almost a quarter of the world's pork supply," she says. "It's a massive number." (This measures the reduction in pigs slaughtered annually, which is roughly twice the number of animals in China's swine herd at any one time.)
The estimate, McCracken says, is based on information from her company's clients in China, which include meat packers, companies that sell animal feed, and animal health experts.
African Swine Fever is not the same as "swine flu." This disease is harmless to humans. It can spread through contaminated pork products or the clothes of people working with infected pigs. It does not travel through the air, but it's long-lived and hard to get rid of which Chinese farmers are learning the hard way.
"They've had a hard time repopulating herds," McCracken says. "It's hard to decontaminate a facility in a short amount of time. Generally, it takes at least six months, sometimes three years, to decontaminate a site."
Up to now, Chinese consumers still are finding enough pork to buy. McCracken says that's mainly because many farmers slaughtered their herds early, out of fear of infection. In the past month or so, however, supplies have started to run short, and pork prices are now rising sharply in China.
In fact, people around the world are now starting to feel the effects.
With fewer pigs, China is importing less soy meal to feed them. That alone has been enough to push down global prices for soybeans, which means less money for farmers in Brazil and the U.S.
The effect on soybean prices may turn out to be modest. According to a preliminary analysis by Amani Elobeid, an economist at Iowa State University, and Miguel Carriquiry, at the University of the Republic in Uruguay, a 30% cut in China's pork production could reduce the price of soy meal by 3 to 5%. In an email to NPR, however, they noted that the analysis "is VERY preliminary and should be used with caution."
The growing Chinese pork shortage is good news, though, for pork producers in the rest of the world: China is now starting to import more pork, driving up prices.
McCracken says the epidemic is still going strong. "It's really hard to see how this is going to end," she says. "Though at some point there will just be better, more 'biosecure' facilities that have less of a chance of getting the virus."
African Swine Fever is present in wild pigs in Europe. European pork producers have managed to protect their commercial herds from infection through careful precautions, preventing any potentially contaminated food or clothing from entering the facilities where pigs live.
Almost half the pigs in China, on the other hand, came from hundreds of thousands of small, backyard operations, which have been particularly hard-hit by the epidemic. If those farms can't protect their animals from infection, they may not survive.
StartPage gave several results:
In response to food contamination scandals worldwide, retail giant Walmart is tackling food safety in the supply chain using blockchain technology. In 2016, it established the Walmart Food Safety Collaboration Center in Beijing and plans to invest $25 million over five years to research global food safety (Yiannas and Liu, 2017). Using IBMs blockchain solution based on Hyperledger Fabric, Walmart has successfully completed two blockchain pilots: pork in China and mangoes in the Americas (IBM, 2017). With a farm-to- table approach, Walmarts blockchain solution reduced time for tracking mango origins from seven days to 2.2 seconds and promoted greater transparency across Walmarts food supply chain (Yiannas, 2017). IBM called it complete end-to-end traceability
Important note: This disease is harmless to humans.
I read the same article, but note-—
It was about Walmart CHINA—not USA. That is, pork SOLD in China uses the blockchain solution.
Frankly, I just do not want to eat meat grown, slaughtered and processed in any other country except the USA.
I’ll make exceptions for European cheeses, sardines and herring, German hams, and anything from Canada.
When I read a label on a food product and it says made/processed/canned in China, I do not buy.
Isn't that what the Chinese have always called "Losing the mandate from Heaven"?
True, BUT, our US producers could do a LOT more for themselves than any likely Country Of Origin Labeling legislation: They could take the bull by the horns (so to speak!), that is, be the tiniest bit self-reliant, imaginative, and aggressive in these matters, and go on a labeling and informational campaign of their own. Their own organizations would perhaps best be the initial place to organize such, although the fact that they are not already on this “warpath” is a bit troubling. Farming of the gov’t is easier, perhaps, for the farm groups?
Properly executed, the increase in revenues would easily finance the advertising costs, and more.
Maybe the pigs are possessed and jumping in the sea. Could be due to the anti-Christian government they have.
Fellow Freeper partner, I jumped on the Trump train as soon as I heard he was going to do something about horrible foreign trade deals. And change relative based immigration to merit based immigration.
Those 2 things are my paramount issues and no other president including the much revered Ronald Reagan did diddly squat on those 2 issues.
I am not anti-immigrant, being one myself, but importing tax payer dependent welfare queens is the height of stupidity by American politicians.
Trump can make 1000 other mistakes, but if he stays strong on those 2 issues, I will vote for him in 2020 if I have to crawl through burning piles of coal.
“Swine Fever Is Killing Vast Numbers Of Pigs In China”
If it was Avian Fly would they be quacking up?
Yeah, I’m sorry.
African Swine (Hemorrhagic) Fever has been known for more than 150 years. Recognized during European colonization of Africa.
Chinese pork impounded at docks.
Why no vaccine for it?
Based on, uh, what?
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/
Now, I DO agree CHINA has a problem...
Sorry to be slow to get back to this thread. Have not had time to look at this more closely.
And the correlation(s) in the graph are...???
From left to right -
The War with the Muslims and the internal rebellion occurred after temperatures returned to near normal (a few years or more after the Dark Ages cooling had mostly ended, it appears.)
The Goryeo-Khitan wars appear to have begun before the Oort Solar Minimum dropped temps. and precip. below average, but then continued on into the (modest) minimum.
The Mongol Invasion and Jin Dynasty collapse occurred during a period of near normal precip. and temps.
The Song Dynasty collapsed as the Wolf. (Temperature) min. took hold, but how much of that was simply due to the Mongols’ strength & success? (The cold seems not to have slowed THEM down.)
The Yuan Dynasty collapsed during a period of near normal temps., but a considerable dry spell.
The Mongols captured the Ming Emperor during a fairly normal climate / weather period.
No major historical calamities during Spoerer Min.
Multiple rebellions, wars / battles before the Little Ice Age took hold.
Ming Dynasty collapses during Maunder Minimum. The Ming Dynasty had been under various duress for a long time though - possibly the MM was the final straw?
The Dalton Minimum is such a small blip that the lack of calamities is likely irrelevant.
The famines of the Qing Dynasty occurred during near normal temps, and precip. that began near normal but then peaked (a little after the famines, it appears? Hard to say from this though, what weather (as opposed to climate) may have happened in individual years.
So... overall there is some spotty correlation, but big problems could also occur when the climate was fine, and the climate could sometimes go to heck and not spur wars or political strife.
And, FWIW... There’s little to suggest that “hot” temperatures caused strife.
Thanks to the WTO and our compliance to the country of origin labeling ruling, there is no way to know where the pork (or beef) you buy at the grocery store comes from.
I wish Trump would do something about that.
Believe China sends pigs to be processed in China...yet it still sells under Smithfield label.
With China soybeans crops devastated this year, swine fever decimating >350M swine. Pork prices should rise to all time levels this year.
"Believe China Smithfield sends pigs to be processed in China...yet it still sells under Smithfield label."?
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