Posted on 06/07/2019 5:37:54 PM PDT by ml/nj
I have a young protégé who told me that he was going to attend the Belmont Stakes with a group of his friends. I think this will also be his first visit to a racetrack
This will be the 54th consecutive Belmont Stakes I have attended.
I sent him a copy of the Past Performances earlier in the week, and just now I prepared an analysis of the races for him.
I thought some FReepers might be interested in what I sent to him so I reproduce it below.
ML/NJ
Race 1 and Race 12 are non-stakes races which limit who can enter but usually all will have won at least a maiden race. Race 2 is for maidens. Race 3 is a non-graded stakes race. Race 13 is a Grade Two race. All the rest are Grade One races which are the most competitive. There are only about 100 Grade One races a year throughout North America.
Good luck!
1st #1 Mo Gotcha Lightly raced, but with a good effort vs winners at fairly high odds
2nd #3 Creative Genius This one is a longshot. I like maidens transferring to the turf after one or two losing efforts on dirt. This isn't a particularly strong field. #4, No Mans Land, is a five year-old and still a maiden but has had recent decent races at the same distance as today's race. #2, Better Tapit, is a first time starter from a strong sire. His trainer wins at a 10% rate with horses that make their first start on the grass.
3rd #4 Outshine Ran 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind Tacitus who might be the favorite to win the Belmont.
4th #4 Rushing Fall Probably the most likely winner of the day. He's a neck short of a perfect 8 for eight record. Three of his seven wins have come in Grade One races.
5th #2 Midnight Bisou Three for three this year (and last year wasn't shabby either). Only once has she been worse than third in 14 races.
6th #8 World of trouble (also three for three this year) or #6 Disco Partner who won this race last year but is an older horse that may have his best efforts behind him.
7th #9 Ce Ce is being ridden by a California Jockey who is here just to ride this race which I take to be a sign that he has confidence in this horse . Ce Ce has never run in a Stakes race so this is a big step up for him and there are other good horses here. #1 Sangreti Empress has won three Graded Stakes races. #2 Jeltrin is also being ridden by a jockey who comes in to ride just this one race but he normally rides in Florida where the races the purses he might not win are considerably lower than those in California.
8th #5 Landescog has only run twice and his only race against winners was in a minor stake where he came in second another runner in this race. This is a sprint and his early fractions in that second race were extremely fast. I'm hoping that his jockey will give up a tiny bit of that early speed so he isn't overtaken today. #4, Complexity, and #10, Lexitonian, are the only Graded Stakes winners in the field. (G1 and G3 respectively) Bob Baffert has a horse entered in this race: #2, Much Better. (See my comment about Baffert in Race 9 below.)
9th #4 Thunder Snow is being ridden by a French Jockey who might be the best Jockey in the World. He is here just for this race. Thunder Snow has won more than $16 million. #2, McKinzie, is trained by California based trainer Bob Baffert who has an amazing record when he ships horses in for Belmont Day. (I think he was four for four last year.) McKinzie's lifetime earnings are just short of $1.5 million. There are five other million dollar earners in this race raging from $1.9 million down to $0.99 million.
10th #9 Bricks and Mortar comes in with a four race winning streak. Two of those races were Grade Ones. #10, Channel Maker, won a Grade One race in his most recent start but has an erratic record.
11th #3 Master Fencer was only four lengths behind in the Derby and had a trip where he had to weave in and out of traffic. #9, War of Will, is the most likely winner IMHO but his odds will be much short than Master Fencer.
12th #1 Prioritize starts from the rail, which is a big advantage at this distance. His trainer is having a surprisingly (for him) good year. (Maybe he has found some magic oats?)
13th #1 Marconi has only won minor Stakes races thus far, but he beat #6, Rocketry, by 2 3/4 in his most recent race and Rocketry beat #4, War Story, by 23 and 9 1/4 lengths in the two recent races where the two faced each other. These latter two have had some decent runs in Graded Stakes races
# # #
what the hell is the point of this ”sport”? It’s cruel to the horses and it’s just an excuse to gamble. End it already.
Buzz off snowflake!
Here again is that part of the Derby...
Following comments are from the official results chart for the race.
WAR OF WILL [#1, also w/pink jockey silks] found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY [#7, pink silks, on the lead] leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened.
The Japanese horse, Master Fencer, at 8:1 is a good bet.
Don’t know about anyone else, but those race charts I posted are a bit blurry. However, with my reading glasses on they’re crystal clear. And I can usually read the text very well on FR without glasses.
Someone’s triggered!
You should walk a shed row at a race track and see how these horses are treated. Even the cheapest horses receive amazing care.
Then you should go out west and observe wild horses with their mangy, nappy hair. And if you can, observe what happens when one of them takes a bad step and breaks its leg. The horse just lies there until something comes along and eats it.
Yes, racehorses sometimes break their legs but this is relatively rare. But when it happens some mean human comes along and does his best to save the horse. True, in most cases this is not possible, but then the mean human comes along and puts the horse out of its misery.
But you are so much better than all those mean humans.
ML/NJ
Some place have horse races with no betting. Can you believe it!
Too bad there aren't any Russian horses for you to bet on.
I could think of a few possible names off the top of my head...
Putin's Puppet, Putin Troll, Spy Chief, Russia Revenge, Evil Empire II, Evil Invader, Expansionist, Cold War Warrior, Collusion Hoax...
I’m going to go out on a limb and bet that there will be no triple crown winner this year.
#3 Master Fencer was only four lengths behind in the Derby and had a trip where he had to weave in and out of traffic. #9, War of Will, is the most likely winner IMHO but his odds will be much short than Master Fencer.
Yes, hadn't caught that earlier. Master Fencer looks like an excellent bet here, especially at anything near 5 or 6 to 1! He closed a ton of ground in the way-overcrowded Derby. Came from 19th, at least 23 lengths back at one point!, on a very sloppy and difficult track, to finish just 4 lengths back. That took an awful lot of courage and determination!
Too bad I lost the money I had to bet on the race yesterday, trying to build up what I had so I could have more money for the Belmont.
Footnotes
MAXIMUM SECURITY came away in good order to take a short lead through the stretch the first time, edged away up the backstretch slightly off the rail, veered out sharply forcing WAR OF WILL out into LONG RANGE TODDY and BODEXPRESS nearing the five-sixteenths pole, responded when challenged from both flanks by CODE OF HONOR and COUNTRY HOUSE, and edged away from the latter through the final stages.
COUNTRY HOUSE settled in the middle of the field three wide off the first turn, advanced four wide into the far turn, was brushed by LONG RANGE TODDY while largely unaffected by the incident five-sixteenths out, loomed boldly outside MAXIMUM SECURITY coming to the eighth-pole, was repelled by that one and held the place.
CODE OF HONOR moved closer to the first flight saving ground after a half-mile, was presented with a large opening slipping through to take a short lead after a mile, but flattened out through upper stretch.
TACITUS steadied while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm through the middle stages, came five wide off the far turn, exchanged brushes with GAME WINNER late and finished with good courage.
IMPROBABLE went along in striking range covered up in the two-path, idled through the far turn in traffic losing some position, shifted out in the drive and offered a mild response.
GAME WINNER was well in arrears widest arriving midway up the backstretch, bumped solidly with BY MY STANDARDS near the half-mile pole, continued extremely wide around the far turn and into the stretch, exchanged brushes with TACITUS late and did not have enough.
MASTER FENCER (JPN) veered out to get away behind his field, was crowded from heavy outside pressure at the start, went along striding a bit awkwardly far back early inside, moved out up the backstretch, began taking better hold of the track in the two-path into the stretch, moved back inside and finished willingly.
WAR OF WILL [#1, also w/pink jockey silks] found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened.
PLUS QUE PARFAIT was unhurried early two wide, moved through along the rail improving position after the first mile, moved back out to the two-path and could not sustain the bid.
WIN WIN WIN raced four wide early, moved inward after that and failed to menace.
CUTTING HUMOR entered the backstretch five wide and well back, made a run into the far turn getting fanned six wide in the process, and gave way through the stretch.
BY MY STANDARDS was squeezed back at the start to get away slowly, raced three wide around the first turn, moved out wider bumping with GAME WINNER near the half-mile marker, and lacked a serious response.
VEKOMA stayed close four wide through the opening half-mile, and began to
fade steadily after six furlongs.
BODEXPRESS angled inward after breaking alertly, was forwardly placed three wide for six furlongs, was forced to take up sharply between LONG RANGE TODDY and COUNTRY HOUSE near the five-sixteenths, and dropped back.
TAX saved ground throughout and was no factor.
ROADSTER was six or seven wide off the first turn, continued along extremely wide the rest of the way and was never in contention.
LONG RANGE TODDY angled inward after an alert beginning, attended the pace outside MAXIMUM SECURITY, was bumped and forced out into BODEXPRESS while checking sharply approaching the five-sixteenths, and retreated.
SPINOFF raced five wide early, moved further out around the far turn and was empty by the quarter-pole.
GRAY MAGICIAN gained mildly two wide after six furlongs, but was finished by the quarter-pole.
The jockeys of LONG RANGE TODDY and COUNTRY HOUSE lodged an objection against MAXIMUM SECURITY for interference nearing the five-sixteenths marker.
Following the Stewards review MAXIMUM SECURITY was disqualified from first and placed seventeenth for veering out and stacking up WAR OF WILL, LONG RANGE TODDY,and BODEXPRESS.
Due to the scratches of OMAHA BEACH and HAIKAL, the inside stall of the starting gate was left vacant.
Source:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/CD050419USA12.pdf
Ignorant.
The point? It’s a pure sport - simply which one makes it there first. It measures a most basic primal skill.
While there are problems, basically there is not much better treatment for horses than being a TB racehorse. Even the lousiest ones tend to be well cared for, as much as can be afforded.
Thanks ETL. But wish I could get the Beyers.
Is the Past Performances charts too blurry? They are for me without my reading glasses on. I don’t normally need them to read text on FR.
I have to say, today itself is my 50th birthday, and my bday is always essentially Belmont weekend (which unfortunately has also become Gay Day at Disney).
For the first time I will be having more of a party, and will include forcing my attending friends to see the race. I even have horse-race party items, for the first time!
I do hope this Belmont does not include anything really trying, but otherwise this year has been entertaining for the TC!
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