Race 1 and Race 12 are non-stakes races which limit who can enter but usually all will have won at least a maiden race. Race 2 is for maidens. Race 3 is a non-graded stakes race. Race 13 is a Grade Two race. All the rest are Grade One races which are the most competitive. There are only about 100 Grade One races a year throughout North America.
Good luck!
1st #1 Mo Gotcha Lightly raced, but with a good effort vs winners at fairly high odds
2nd #3 Creative Genius This one is a longshot. I like maidens transferring to the turf after one or two losing efforts on dirt. This isn't a particularly strong field. #4, No Mans Land, is a five year-old and still a maiden but has had recent decent races at the same distance as today's race. #2, Better Tapit, is a first time starter from a strong sire. His trainer wins at a 10% rate with horses that make their first start on the grass.
3rd #4 Outshine Ran 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind Tacitus who might be the favorite to win the Belmont.
4th #4 Rushing Fall Probably the most likely winner of the day. He's a neck short of a perfect 8 for eight record. Three of his seven wins have come in Grade One races.
5th #2 Midnight Bisou Three for three this year (and last year wasn't shabby either). Only once has she been worse than third in 14 races.
6th #8 World of trouble (also three for three this year) or #6 Disco Partner who won this race last year but is an older horse that may have his best efforts behind him.
7th #9 Ce Ce is being ridden by a California Jockey who is here just to ride this race which I take to be a sign that he has confidence in this horse . Ce Ce has never run in a Stakes race so this is a big step up for him and there are other good horses here. #1 Sangreti Empress has won three Graded Stakes races. #2 Jeltrin is also being ridden by a jockey who comes in to ride just this one race but he normally rides in Florida where the races the purses he might not win are considerably lower than those in California.
8th #5 Landescog has only run twice and his only race against winners was in a minor stake where he came in second another runner in this race. This is a sprint and his early fractions in that second race were extremely fast. I'm hoping that his jockey will give up a tiny bit of that early speed so he isn't overtaken today. #4, Complexity, and #10, Lexitonian, are the only Graded Stakes winners in the field. (G1 and G3 respectively) Bob Baffert has a horse entered in this race: #2, Much Better. (See my comment about Baffert in Race 9 below.)
9th #4 Thunder Snow is being ridden by a French Jockey who might be the best Jockey in the World. He is here just for this race. Thunder Snow has won more than $16 million. #2, McKinzie, is trained by California based trainer Bob Baffert who has an amazing record when he ships horses in for Belmont Day. (I think he was four for four last year.) McKinzie's lifetime earnings are just short of $1.5 million. There are five other million dollar earners in this race raging from $1.9 million down to $0.99 million.
10th #9 Bricks and Mortar comes in with a four race winning streak. Two of those races were Grade Ones. #10, Channel Maker, won a Grade One race in his most recent start but has an erratic record.
11th #3 Master Fencer was only four lengths behind in the Derby and had a trip where he had to weave in and out of traffic. #9, War of Will, is the most likely winner IMHO but his odds will be much short than Master Fencer.
12th #1 Prioritize starts from the rail, which is a big advantage at this distance. His trainer is having a surprisingly (for him) good year. (Maybe he has found some magic oats?)
13th #1 Marconi has only won minor Stakes races thus far, but he beat #6, Rocketry, by 2 3/4 in his most recent race and Rocketry beat #4, War Story, by 23 and 9 1/4 lengths in the two recent races where the two faced each other. These latter two have had some decent runs in Graded Stakes races
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what the hell is the point of this ”sport”? It’s cruel to the horses and it’s just an excuse to gamble. End it already.
Here again is that part of the Derby...
Following comments are from the official results chart for the race.
WAR OF WILL [#1, also w/pink jockey silks] found a good spot saving ground off the leaders under a firm hold, continued along reserved waiting for room into the far turn, shifted outside MAXIMUM SECURITY [#7, pink silks, on the lead] leaving the three-eighths pole, was forced out by that rival into LONG RANGE TODDY, checked hard off heels, remained prominent in the three-path to upper stretch and weakened.
The Japanese horse, Master Fencer, at 8:1 is a good bet.
Don’t know about anyone else, but those race charts I posted are a bit blurry. However, with my reading glasses on they’re crystal clear. And I can usually read the text very well on FR without glasses.
I’m going to go out on a limb and bet that there will be no triple crown winner this year.
#3 Master Fencer was only four lengths behind in the Derby and had a trip where he had to weave in and out of traffic. #9, War of Will, is the most likely winner IMHO but his odds will be much short than Master Fencer.
Yes, hadn't caught that earlier. Master Fencer looks like an excellent bet here, especially at anything near 5 or 6 to 1! He closed a ton of ground in the way-overcrowded Derby. Came from 19th, at least 23 lengths back at one point!, on a very sloppy and difficult track, to finish just 4 lengths back. That took an awful lot of courage and determination!
Too bad I lost the money I had to bet on the race yesterday, trying to build up what I had so I could have more money for the Belmont.
I have to say, today itself is my 50th birthday, and my bday is always essentially Belmont weekend (which unfortunately has also become Gay Day at Disney).
For the first time I will be having more of a party, and will include forcing my attending friends to see the race. I even have horse-race party items, for the first time!
I do hope this Belmont does not include anything really trying, but otherwise this year has been entertaining for the TC!
Printed your picks. I will be at Monmouth. 37th year of handicapping. Good luck.
Good call on #5!
And race #6! Race #11 surprised the crowd and had many disgruntled bettors Section 2P