Posted on 12/01/2018 7:04:17 AM PST by daniel1212
A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.
Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”
Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.
Temperature
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures .
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures. [blod emphasis mine]
I hardly ever see the NOAA predict lower than "average" temps. In Sept. it predicted the next 3 months to be higher than average
Joe Bastardi reported that November is the 2cnd coldest since 2001 for the US 6th coldest for the globe. However globally still .24C above average.
The AccuWeather's US winter forecast for 2018-2019 season made October 15, 2018 predicts
Once again, El Niño will influence the winter weather across the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes.
The season will start out mild for much of the region before colder weather digs in its heels in January and February.
“New York City and Philadelphia may wind up 4 to 8 degrees colder this February compared to last February,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.
In the mid-Atlantic states, a few big snowstorms are likely. Most of the action will dodge the far Northeast, however.
In the Great Lakes, lake-effect snow will be less frequent than normal, despite above-normal water temperatures. An uptick is possible in late winter, but, for the season as a whole, residents will receive less than they are accustomed to.
A very active winter is predicted for the Southeast, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast this season.
January and February will be particularly conducive to snow and ice threats, with multiple storms forecast for the region.
It will bear a stark contrast to the winter of 2017-2018, when February brought well above-normal temperatures to the area.
Come late winter, Florida will need to be on alert for severe weather and flooding.
for western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains ...Snowfall in these regions is likely to remain below normal, with storms occurring less frequently than usual.
The interior Southwest is likely to end up drier, with more precipitation reaching central California, particularly midseason. - https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-2019-us-winter-forecast-storms-to-target-mid-atlantic-snow-and-ice-to-strike-the-southern-plains/70006208
And for what it is worth, The Old Farmer's Almanac's 2018–2019 Winter Weather Forecast for the United States predicts,
This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season.
In terms of precipitation, we are predicting above-normal levels for most of the country, except in the Southeast, southern California, the nation’s midsection, and parts of Alaska and Hawaii, where normal or below-normal precipitation amounts are expected instead. - https://www.almanac.com/content/2019-winter-weather-forecast
Complete Horse Shizz, I am from Minnesota and it’s been the coldest fall ever. last 10 days below freezing by a lot.
I’m in Upstate New York....Set record lows throughout most of November.
Most of Iowa has had near record-low average temps for November, along with being dryer than normal.
NWS/NOAA are cooking the books. A mild El Nino would not have the relatively extreme warming effect claimed. This is just background material for claiming climate change.
Our early winter in Texas has been much colder and extremely wet this year. We have had 24” of rain in past 2 months. Our normal annual rainfail per year is 25”.
Cold and wet means better crops this year. And better grazing for livestock.
NWS/NOAA are cooking the books
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True that. NOAA’s forecasts are political, not meteorological.
European, Canadian, UKMet, JMA and Bastardi’s own Pioneer model all predict a colder than normal winter for much of the country with normal to greater than normal snowfall east of the Mississippi. As Joe said the other day, the US model just can’t find cold. Using their own metrics their forecast should be for cold and snow, but they dismiss their own facts to predict what pushes the AGW agenda. They predicted a warm November. It was one of the coldest on record with temps at times 15-18 degrees below normal and two massive snowstorms. I wouldn’t put the winter coats away based on anything NOAA says. But expect this to be the main weather story all weekend, ‘Warmer than normal winter ahead.’ Film at 11.
We’ll see. The Sun is at a minimum right now. That means cold!
Soon to be proven spectacularly wrong.
But it seems about all we hear about is warmer than average temps.
Surely you are not you saying forecasts can be influenced by a political agenda!
At least they seem to be consistent!
Never got a powder day in November like the one I enjoyed this past Wednesday in Vermont. So ... Whatever, NOAA..
Yakima, Washington-—10 degrees below the average for day time temp. nearly all of November. And, December is starting out the same.
"The effects of man-made climate change are worse than we could have predicted."
thank you.
carrying on the tradition - a true Texan never complains about rain.
J Bastardi is the man on longer range weather predictions and the ‘why’ of it. He has predicted a colder and wetter winter since August. He is generally right on and He will be correct this time too I’m betting...
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