Posted on 10/22/2018 7:00:59 PM PDT by dontreadthis
1) Gonna offer a hypothesis. This is NOT a prediction quite yet.
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In Eastern NC I am seeing lots of ads complaining that Trump promised to drain the swamp and hasn’t so people should vote against him.
One alternate (party pooper) explanation for spending money on advertising in the “safe” house races is the the ALTBLUE fund has put the dems so flush with cash that there is plenty to spread around.
a nice logical analysis
Do you use a herring?
ThreadReaderApp is just a website[app] where multiple tweets[thread] can be assembled to make them easier to [read].
Nothing to be scared of.
Was deserved. However, except for Roy Moore, I haven’t missed an election since. And seriously, who knew Moore would cause 685,000 Rs to stay home in a red state? I mean, wow. That’s Twilight Zone #s.
The methodology that LS uses is sound and based on real data. LS has come a LONG way since 2012 and over the years, I’ve definitely seen him restrain his own enthusiasm in favor of analyzing hard data.
He won’t even say that 60 seats is on the table. (It is)
My source in NV, “The Dentist,” is quite optimistic.
He says Ds will fall about 30k votes short of the 2016 number when Trump lost by 27k.
He thinks Rosen will be about 20k short of her number.
That said, there are some other guys in my Twitter group who are pessimistic, esp since Washoe D performance is up, but Clark R performance is also higher (which net should mean more Rs, cuz Clark a much larger county). Also, Trump’s rally “hurt” in the sense that it lasted until after polls were closed in Elko.
ALL NV #S from the “RURALS” are one day behind, so the Rs essentially have a rural “delayed vote” always coming in.
Did you mean to say her ring?
Oh, no, no ring.
But I do have a gold tooth right there up front!
——People with low self esteem and who complain life is unfair are least likely to do anything to fix their problems.-—
Ironically, the mainstay of those people you noted are women who have been taught to make a difference since birth.
“Ralph Reed saying that they are contacting 2 million Evangelicals “
Not 2 million....20 million!
You're exactly right. He's not perfect but he's generally very good. What I remember specifically from 2018 is that he nailed OH, PA and FL. I thought he was crazy about PA and that FL would not be as close as he thought. I was wrong in both instances.
LS,
I would like to compliment you on the credit you publicly afford Free Republic members and others by screen name and nickname. I have seen this in your twitter posts and books. You make clear that you rely on a great deal of insight afforded by these team members and it shows you to be a true gentleman.
“Lazy? Not in SA and my city, the demonRATS are record breaking numbers in these blue cities with early voting and absentee!! Take nothing for granted!!”
Here are totals for Texas for early voting:
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct22.shtml
No party breakdown that I can see. I’m still researching the numbers.
I saw an article about long lines in Houston. But Harris County actually had one of the lower percentages from yesterday. 2.7% turnout.
Need to compare Red county turnout with Blue County turnout like I did in Tennessee.
Did you mean to say her ring?
It's a Monty Python reference, from the movie "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". The Knights Who Say Ni demand that King Arthur bring them a shrubbery and cut down a tree with a herring.
Check this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0e2kaQqxmQ0 at about 4:30 minutes. Actually, I'd watch the whole clip, it's funny (if you're into Monty Python!).
While I don’t see a party breakdown, we can look at the big DEM counties that Hillary won to see how turnout looks.
For In-Person voting 2016 vs 2018.
Harris, 3.02% vs 2.70%
Dallas, 4.57% vs 4.45%
El Paso, 3.53% vs 3.78%
Travis, 4.84% vs 4.48%
Bexar, 3.39% vs 3.10%
Hidalgo, 5.47% vs 4.07%
The Hillary counties are all down percentage wise with the exception of El Paso - Beto’s hometown.
Absolute number of people voting may be up because of a larger population. Percentages are not up.
Here is a new phrase: “The Polling Booth - Where Betomania goes to die”. Original, huh.
Help on NY3, where DiBono (the R) is within 4. Any absentee #s there?
How do you account for the coming voter fraud which will be massive?
The leftwing communists will use “any means necessary” to regain power - by hook or crook.
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