Posted on 10/22/2018 7:00:59 PM PDT by dontreadthis
1) Gonna offer a hypothesis. This is NOT a prediction quite yet.
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I have been chastised ( threatened with banning again) for my old tag line if I mock humble freepers that only think NYT is news and yet complains about liberal media. I get lost in that circular logic. Maybe it’s just me but it’s very odd.
It is hard not to get too excited as things are looking very optimistic based on observed actual data that universally shows an improved R vs D position as compared with prior years (2016 and/or 2014). I strongly agree with LS’s temperance in stating it is not a prediction yet.
If the trend in actual votes is real and carries through, then your assessment of the gain is not unrealistic and perhaps modest. The trend would suggest that the polls are not reliable so the predictions are not viable. One example is the 538 prediction which notes that Rs have a 1 in 6 chance of holding the house is irrelevant. I am willing to accept at face value their statistical methods as being scientifically valid. However, they are based on polls and the phrase GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) would be applicable.
Why would the polls be inaccurate?
a. The attempt to manipulate opinion and depress R turnout. We saw that in 2016 with a week or so out they showed Trump 11 or 12 behind Clinton.
b. Sampling errors unintentional (intentional is in item a). As you have pointed out the calls to response is quite low. I suspect that it is getting worse and more difficult to make an appropriate assessment. (This is gut conjecture with no facts.) Some of this is attributable to items c and d below but my gut instinct (without any specific knowledge) is that organically it is harder possibly due to less people with land lines. A lower sample has a higher error margin. Also I believe unintended bias combined with the difficulty in getting a sample seeps in to the results.
c. The hidden Trump effect which in this climate of the mobs, I believe that it is stronger than 2016 as people are more afraid to share their support to Rs.
d. Scott Adams noted that people enjoyed how the left, especially the media, was shocked and saddened the night Trump won. People want to see a repeat of that. It seems like an FU to the media. I can’t get enough of watching the press videos of that night (it is like catnip to me and I occasionally need my fix).
Even more optimism:
1. The Trump effect. His rallies along with his ability to frame the contest has a huge impact. He is a master salesman and the slogan Jobs not Mobs is huge. I believe it demolishes 2 things - the surge in D donations as well as the historical pattern of the party in power loses seats. There has never been a salesman who has gone out like Trump. It is potent because he can tout success. These rallies are a new phenomena. I think this impact will continue to grow through the election cycle. Also note that Trump has appeared on many interviews this recently. A recent tweet by ABC news (I think it was Jonathon Karl) noted that Trump has answered something like 300 questions in a span of a week or so - nothing like he has ever seen.
The issues favor Rs and Trump’s framing makes this more effective.
2. Enthusiasm - I believe there is empirical evidence that the Kavanaugh fiasco woke up the Rs. Not mentioned is the momentum effect. We see this often in sports when a team is down but a turnover in football or a home run in baseball changes the complexion for both the players and the fans. I submit that this is an appropriate analogy. Consider the following. What have we heard not only in the MSM but acknowledged by many on our side. The party in power loses seats. The mass of retirements by the Rs in the house means that we will lose the house. Combine this with polls and there is a gloom that is felt. I think that Kavanaugh as well as Trump’s framing capitalizing on the D lunacy has totally changed the momentum. This is true not just on our side but the MSM has a spate of recent stories suggesting that they may fall short of the house and it is clear that the Senate will not switch to Ds. I think the myth of the blue wave has gone. The Red Tsunami is more likely.
3. GOTV - I think that this could be huge. I will share my specific knowledge and the rest is conjecture. For the Rs, there are 2 pieces of information that I have see. Ronna McDaniel has noted that she has 4X the volunteers that they had in 2016. (I saw this a month ago). Today I saw an article by Ralph Reed saying that they are contacting 2 million Evangelicals in the key states for Senate as well as 40 house districts. I believe that the issues present will motivate the Evangelicals to a higher turnout. Items 1 and 2 will make this effort more effective. With respect to the Ds. There is no national leader nor message. The only possible advantage is money poured in having an impact. I see nothing that is game changing. (I would not know of anything but I highly doubt anything exists as I do not see any effective coordination for the Ds.)
I summarize by saying the title of your thread “Encouraging” is appropriate. Make sure everyone votes and wait to rejoice on election night.
2016 was a spectacular prediction for him. Perhaps you'd be willing to share his failures?
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AC has a point. He bases his criticism on a 2012 call on Ohio I made for Romney.
Over the next 4 years, with some help, we found a way to accurately capture the “unaffiliated” voters that I wrongly thought were true indendents. The were really Dems who hadn’t voted in the prinary. A friend called “The Accountant, “ through a LOT of work, figured out how to properly assign Us. It worked perfectly in 2016 & current splits look exactly as he predicted. So I was wrong in 2012, but right in 16 and so far the numbers look like I’m right this time.
Don’t agree with everything LS is saying but glad to see he’s realizing what I stated out of the gate when it came to the Senate.
GOP 6+ and if the winds blow just right the GOP could hit double digits.
The Kavanaugh effect is very real, and any state that isn’t deep deep blue that hasn’t shown at least a 4-6 point swing toward the GOP in the senate races to the GOP since the kavanaugh affair, then the polls are off... either in sampling, adjustments or both.
The average swing seems to be around 8-10 points.. and the deeper red the state the bigger the swing.
It also completely took the House out of play, and as I stated before I believe the odds are right around 50/50 the gop gains seats in the house.
The staged confrontation with the aliens caravan, times to coincide with the election is also going to just outrage more than anything else.. yes it won’t be pretty.. but I think Trump will get rewarded for standing up to them, even with the ugly videos sure to come out of it.
I seem to remember throwing your 2012 prediction back at you as well. But 2016 was spot on.
The thing is, many sensible democrats will, in the name of peace and civility, crossover and vote R. Now, please - how many R’s will find Antifa and the mobs not jobs party worth another look? Zero.
I think the only democrat winner anywhere might just be that cute little Zanti Misfit / Bolshevik Bombshell outta the Bronx. Octavius Cortes or whatever her name is. She seems nice. Dumb as a bag of nails but kinda nice.
I don’t click on links like that. I have already had my cookies donloaded by Facebook and I was classified as “very conservative” even though I had only looked at posts to me and never posted anything myself. The CEO of my company is a rabid anti-Trump person and it looks like he is trying to wipe put conservatives. He led the walk out of Trump’s industry advice group. Shortly after I got called out after 35 years of no issues for things like not doing compliance training faster than some other employees, though I did all before the deadline. There were about four other ridiculous areas I was cited for just as I was turning 59 years old. And they were tracking all of them, all of a sudden. This is the classic way to get around age discrimination and it was not just me. Many others my age had this done. The program I was supporting was very upset I quit. I was not willing to wait for what was next for what I did not comply with closely enough to count. I do not know what politicians will do, but I do not trudst them.
“It is possible the Republicans end up with 61 votes in the Senate (More like 58)”
I tell my demented Rat friends 54 but only because I don’t want to freak them out.
They are hearing the DNC Media backpedaling loud and clear.
I’m feeling 57 but I wish a few more would come in. Prayer can deliver a stunning victory as America is roused from its slumber.
We’re definitely living great history. Keep praying and fighting for votes out int he field FRiends.
I lived in the DC Viewing area, not Comstock’s CD ... she has an amazingly powerful ad on TV, just destroying her opponent, who was a prosecutor in one of the counties of that CD. I will paraphrase, but the ad begins “Wexton (the D) had ONE JOB. To lock up criminals. She let a rapist out in 2 mos after dropping most of the charges...” and, again paraphrasing, it goes on with all the things she didn’t do as prosecutor to keep the public safe. Very, very powerful.
I’m pretty sure LS is right here, that Comstock will hold her seat even tho the formerly solid red district has become decidedly purple as the area’s grown and more govt and govt-related workers move to what was quite rural not too long ago (like when my parents lived there!).
Does DNC Chairman Tom Perez do Sunday morning interviews?
“as the press staggers around like stunned zombies... “
I did love the conclusion. If they can win New Jersey...
We’re fighting hard in the Soprano State and damn if Bob Hugin, a Marine isn’t charging right up the hill.
I wholehearted agree with MtnClimber -- 140 character limit on Twitter, where's the @$#%@! beef?
Freepers tend to be a bit odd, trolls only more so!
So far, no complaints...
Yes, I was just under the highest engineering position in a fortune 500 company which the highest is Senior Scientist. I got a company Engineering Leadership award, I think one of six, a few years ago. All of a sudden my scum bag supervisor called me in right in the middle of a critical system repair and informed me that my mid-year performance review was very bad (the only mid year review I ever had in 35 years). The “only” thing good was job performance. The other things were policy compliance which I always met deadlines, but not as fast as some others. I gave them the middle finger and have not looked back! I already started a small business making more than my fortune 500 job and I had the 4% plan that you need 25 times your last salary to retire on your current lifestyle.
Great idea!
WOOOHOOOO Larry!
I don’t really like all the reporting on how well the Rs are doing. There are still 12 days to go. This could galvanize the dems more.
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We’ve also been down this road before with how great Romney was performing places like Ohio and Florida...NOT!
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